Unité mixte de recherche 7235

A Generalized Nash-Cournot Model for the North-Western European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel SubstitutionDemand Function: The GaMMES Model

Ibrahim Abada, Vincent Briat, Steve A. Gabriel, Olivier Massol

[en]This article presents a dynamic Generalized Nash-Cournot model to describe the evolution of the natural gas markets. The aim of this work is to provide a theoretical framework that would allow us to analyze future infrastructure and policy developments, while trying to answer some of the main criticisms addressed to Cournot-based models of natural gas markets. The major gas chain players are depicted including: producers, consumers, storage and pipeline operators, as well as intermediate local traders. Our economic structure description takes into account market power and the demand representation tries to capture the possible fuel substitution that can be made between the consumption of oil, coal and natural gas in the overall fossil energy consumption. We also take into account the long-term aspects inherent to some markets, in an endogenous way. This particularity of our description makes the model a Generalized Nash Equilibrium problem that needs to be solved using specialized mathematical techniques. Our model has been applied to represent the European natural gas market and forecast, until 2030, after a calibration process, consumption, prices, production and natural gas dependence. A comparison between our model, a more standard one that does not take into account energy substitution, and the European Commission natural gas forecasts is carried out to analyze our results. Finally, in order to illustrate the possible use of fuel substitution, we studied the evolution of the natural gas price as compared to the coal and oil prices. This paper mostly focuses on the model description.[/en]


lundi 20 mars 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Ambre Nicolle (LMU Munich)

En salle 614 et en distanciel

Competition and value capture in platform markets: Implications for complementor strategy

mardi 21 mars 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

André Orléan (Paris School of Economics)

Toutes les valeurs sont des espèces d’un même genre

mercredi 22 mars 2023

Économies du monde musulman

Hicham Benamirouche (CREAD, Alger) | Mongi Marzoug (ancien ministre tunisien de l’énergie)

La sécurité énergétique dans la région MENA: une proposition d’évaluation | La transition énergétique dans les pays du MENA

jeudi 23 mars 2023


Benjamin Monnery

Salle 401-402 à 12h

Does the International Criminal Court Reduce Violence Against Civilians?

lundi 27 mars 2023

Professeurs invités

Axel Gautier

jeudi 30 mars 2023

Groupe de travail « Intelligence artificielle »

Paola Tubaro (CREST)

Salle : G614B

Artificial intelligence, labour transformations, and inconspicuous inequalities: women’s work on digital ‘micro-tasking’ platforms

jeudi 30 mars 2023


Morel Tien

Migration et synchronisation des cycles

lundi 3 avril 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Stefania Marcassa (CY Cergy)

En salle 614 et en distanciel


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