Unité mixte de recherche 7235

Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?

Marc Joëts, Valérie Mignon, Tovonony Razafindrabe

[en]This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on a large sample of 19 commodity markets. We rely on a robust measure of macroeconomic uncertainty based on a wide range of monthly macroeconomic and financial indicators, and we estimate a structural threshold VAR (TVAR) model to assess whether the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on commodity price returns depends on the degree of uncertainty. Our findings show that whereas the safe-haven role of precious metals is confirmed, agricultural and industrial markets are highly sensitive to the variability and the level of macroeconomic uncertainty, respectively. In addition, we show that the recent 2007-09 recession has generated an unprecedented episode of high uncertainty in numerous commodity markets that is not necessarily accompanied by a subsequent volatility in the corresponding prices, highlighting the relevance of our uncertainty measure in linking uncertainty to predictability rather than to volatility.[/en]

AGENDA

lundi 27 juin 2022

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Miriam Buiten (St Gallen Univ)

En distanciel à 11H30

From intermediaries to moderators of the internet: Should online platforms be liable?

jeudi 30 juin 2022

Doctorants

Zoltán Szücs | Gagnie Pascal Yebarth

Salle 401-402

Le rôle de la police municipale dans la satisfaction des attentes de la population parisienne en termes de tranquillité publique | Politiques publiques et externalités dans les jeux stratégiques de marché

vendredi 1 juillet 2022

Colloques et Workshops

9th Workshop on Economic Analysis of Litigation

lundi 4 juillet 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Webinar conjoint sur l’environnement et la santé dans les villes maritimes

lundi 18 juillet 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Workshop “Sustainability, Public Action, and Well-Being”

jeudi 1 septembre 2022

Professeurs invités

Stéphane Méchoulan

vendredi 16 septembre 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Tables rondes de macro-finance contemporaine

lundi 19 septembre 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Valeur, valeurs

Inscription aux Newsletters