Unité mixte de recherche 7235

External debt and real exchange rates’adjustment in the euro area: New evidence from a nonlinear NATREX model

Cécile Couharde, Serge Rey, Audrey Allegret

[en]In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run real exchange rate determination within the euro area, focusing on the role of external debt. Accordingly, we rely on the NATREX approach which provides an explicit framework of the external debt-real exchange rates nexus. In particular, given the indebtedness levels reached by the euro area economies, we investigate potential non-linearity in real exchange rates dynamics, according to the level of the external debt. Our results evidence that during the monetary union, gross and net external debt positions of the euro area countries have exerted pressures on real exchange rate dynamics within the area. Moreover, we find that, beyond a threshold reached by the external debt, euro area countries are found to be in a vulnerable position, leading to an unavoidable adjustment process. Nevertheless, the adjustment process, while effective, is found to be low and occurs slowly.[/en]

AGENDA

mardi 5 décembre 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Clément Fontan (UC Louvain)

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

jeudi 7 décembre 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Vincent Lenglin (Université Catholique de Lille)

How Do We Apply Self-Protection to Others?

jeudi 7 décembre 2023

Doctorants

Emmanuelle Faure

Explaining economic performances in the French employment zone: spatial externalities and related variety

lundi 11 décembre 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Bastien Michel (LEMNA, Nantes)

Measuring the Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism in Denmark

mercredi 13 décembre 2023

Économies du monde musulman

Chahir Zaki (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

Dette en Egypte : conjoncture défavorable ou structure vulnérable ?

jeudi 14 décembre 2023

Lunch

Hugo ORIOLA

Salle 101-102 à 12h

Opportunistic Political Central Bank Coverage: Does media coverage of ECB’s Monetary Policy Impacts German Political Parties’ Popularity?

jeudi 14 décembre 2023

Développement Durable Environnement et Energie (DDEE)

Emeline Bezin (CNRS/CREM)

Salle 101-102

TBA

jeudi 14 décembre 2023

Séminaire Econom’IA

Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou (médialab - Sciences Po Paris)

Salle G614A de 11h à 12h30

Outils, méthodes et productions numériques à partir de données du web au médialab de Sciences Po

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