Unité mixte de recherche 7235

Forecasting economic activity in data-rich environment

Maxime Leroux, Rachidi Kotchoni, Dalibor Stevanovic

[en]This paper compares the performance of five classes of forecasting models in an extensive out-of-sample exercise. The types of models considered are standard univariate models, factor-augmented regressions, dynamic factor models, other data-rich models and forecast combinations. These models are compared using four types of data: real series, nominal series, the stock market index and exchange rates. Our Findings can be summarized in a few points: (i) data-rich models and forecasts combination approaches are the best for predicting real series; (ii) ARMA(1,1) model predicts inflation change incredibly well and outperform data-rich models; (iii) the simple average of forecasts is the best approach to predict future SP500 returns; (iv) exchange rates can be predicted at short horizons mainly by univariate models but the random walk dominates at medium and long terms; (v) the optimal structure of forecasting equations changes much over time; and (vi) the dispersion of out-of-sample point forecasts is a good predictor of some macroeconomic and financial uncertainty measures as well as of the business cycle movements among real activity series.[/en]

AGENDA

jeudi 1 septembre 2022

Professeurs invités

Stéphane Méchoulan

lundi 12 septembre 2022

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Stéphane Méchoulan (Dalhousie U)

En salle 614 et en distanciel

Revisiting the effects of abortion legalization

mercredi 14 septembre 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Roundtable on Gender-based violence in South Africa

vendredi 16 septembre 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Tables rondes de macro-finance contemporaine

lundi 19 septembre 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Valeur, valeurs

jeudi 22 septembre 2022

Lunch

Stéphane Méchoulan

TBA

lundi 26 septembre 2022

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Marie Layoun (U Panthéon Assas)

En salle 614 et en distanciel

Electricity shortage and municipal elections: Evidence from Lebanon

jeudi 29 septembre 2022

Doctorants

Milien Dhorne

TBA

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