Unité mixte de recherche 7235

Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity

Rachidi Kotchoni, Dalibor Stevanovic

[en]This paper proposes a framework to produce real time multi-horizon forecasts of business cycle turning points, average forecasts of economic activity as well as conditional forecasts that depend on whether the horizon of interest belongs to a recession episode or not. Our forecasting models take the form of an autoregression of order one that is augmented with either a probability of recession or an inverse Mills ratio. Our empirical results suggest that a static Probit model that uses only the Term Spread as regressor provides comparable fit to the data as more sophisticated non-static Probit models. We also find that the dynamic patterns of the Term Structure of recession probabilities are quite informative about business cycle turning points. Our most parsimonious augmented autoregressive model delivers better out-of-sample forecasts of GDP growth than the benchmark models considered. We construct several Term Structures of recession probabilities since the last official NBER turning point. The results suggest that there has been no harbinger of a recession for the US economy since 2010Q4 and that there is none to fear at least until 2018Q1. GDP growth is expected to rise steadily between 2016Q3 and 2018Q1 in the range [2.5%,3.5%].[/en]

AGENDA

jeudi 1 septembre 2022

Professeurs invités

Stéphane Méchoulan

lundi 12 septembre 2022

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Stéphane Méchoulan (Dalhousie U)

En salle 614 et en distanciel

Revisiting the effects of abortion legalization

mercredi 14 septembre 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Roundtable on Gender-based violence in South Africa

vendredi 16 septembre 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Tables rondes de macro-finance contemporaine

lundi 19 septembre 2022

Colloques et Workshops

Valeur, valeurs

jeudi 22 septembre 2022

Lunch

Stéphane Méchoulan

TBA

lundi 26 septembre 2022

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Marie Layoun (U Panthéon Assas)

En salle 614 et en distanciel

Electricity shortage and municipal elections: Evidence from Lebanon

jeudi 29 septembre 2022

Doctorants

Milien Dhorne

TBA

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