Unité mixte de recherche 7235

Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data

Georges Prat, Remzi Uctum

[en]Using Consensus Forecast survey data on WTI oil price expectations for three and twelve month horizons over the period November 1989 – December 2008, we find that the rational expectation hypothesis is rejected and that none of the traditional extrapolative, regressive and adaptive processes fits the data. We suggest a mixed expectation model defined as a linear combination of these traditional processes, which we interpret as the aggregation of individual mixing behavior and of heterogenous groups of agents using simple processes. This approach is consistent with the economically rational expectations theory. We show that the target price included in the regressive component of this model depends on macroeconomic fundamentals whose effects are subject to structural changes. The estimation results led to validate the mixed expectational model for the two horizons.[/en]

AGENDA

jeudi 1 juin 2023

Lunch

Quentin Hoarau

Feebate on new vehicles : pass-through on the second-hand market and distributional impacts

vendredi 2 juin 2023

Rencontres économiques

9h30 à 11h30

Le renouveau industriel français est-il encore possible ?

jeudi 8 juin 2023

Doctorants

Sahil Chopra (Université Sorbonne Paris-Nord)

Economics of litigation : Securities class action with third-party funding

lundi 12 juin 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Arthur Silve (IAST / Univ. Laval)

TBA

jeudi 15 juin 2023

Lunch

Guillaume Pierné

TBA

lundi 19 juin 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Juan Mora-Sanguinetti (Banco de Espana)

TBA

jeudi 22 juin 2023

Doctorants

Jules Chaperon

TBA

vendredi 1 septembre 2023

Professeurs invités

Ken Yahagi

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