Unité mixte de recherche 7235

On the current account – biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter?

Gabriel Gomes, Emmanuel Hache, Valérie Mignon, Anthony Paris

Many developed countries promote the use of biofuels for environmental concerns, leading to a rise in the price of agricultural commodities utilized in their production. Such environmental policies have major effects on the economy of emerging and developing countries whose activity is highly dependent on agricultural commodities involved in biofuel production. This paper tackles this issue by examining the price impact of biofuels on the current account for a panel of 16 developing and emerging countries, and the potential nonlinear effect exerted by the price of oil on this relationship. Relying on the estimation of panel smooth-transition regression models, we show that positive shocks in the price of biofuels lead to a current-account improvement for agricultural commodity exporters and producers only when the price of oil is below a certain threshold. When the price of oil exceeds this threshold, uctuations in the price of biofuels no longer affect the current account. These findings illustrate that a rise in the price of oil exerts a negative effect on the trade balance of commodity exporters which are also oil importers, dampening the biofuel price impact on the current-account position.

AGENDA

lundi 11 décembre 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Bastien Michel (LEMNA, Nantes)

Measuring the Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism in Denmark

mercredi 13 décembre 2023

Économies du monde musulman

Chahir Zaki (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

Dette en Egypte : conjoncture défavorable ou structure vulnérable ?

jeudi 14 décembre 2023

Lunch

Hugo ORIOLA

Salle 101-102 à 12h

Opportunistic Political Central Bank Coverage: Does media coverage of ECB’s Monetary Policy Impacts German Political Parties’ Popularity?

jeudi 14 décembre 2023

Développement Durable Environnement et Energie (DDEE)

Emeline Bezin (CNRS/CREM)

Salle 101-102

TBA

jeudi 14 décembre 2023

Séminaire Econom’IA

Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou (médialab - Sciences Po Paris)

Salle G614A de 11h à 12h30

Outils, méthodes et productions numériques à partir de données du web au médialab de Sciences Po

lundi 18 décembre 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Rémi Suchon (U Catholique de Lille)

TBA

jeudi 21 décembre 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Moustapha Sarr

TBA

jeudi 21 décembre 2023

Doctorants

Zoltán Szücs

L’économie du policing – le cas d’une police de tranquillité publique, la nouvelle police municipale de Paris

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