Unité mixte de recherche 7235

On the impact of dollar movements on oil currencies

Gabriel Gomes

[en]This paper investigates to which extent dollar real exchange rate movements have a nonlinear impact on the short term dynamics of the real exchange rate of oil exporting economies. Estimating a panel cointegrating model for 11 OPEC and 5 major oil exporting countries over the 1980-2014 period, we find evidence to support their currencies can be considered as oil price driven. In fact, on the long run a 10% increase in the price of oil leads to a 2.1% appreciation of their real exchange rate. To analyse how dollar movements interact with the real exchange rate of those countries in the short run, we then estimate a panel smooth transition regression model. Results show that the real exchange rate of oil exporting economies is influenced by oil price fluctuations only if the dollar appreciation is lower than 2.6%. After the dollar appreciates beyond this threshold, their currencies are rather affected by other variables.[/en]

AGENDA

jeudi 19 mai 2022

Lunch

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Are all central bank asset purchases the same?

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Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

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Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Antoine Dubus (ETH Zurich)

Salle G110

Data Driven Mergers and Acquisitions with Information Synergies

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Series of Webinars on Economics of Environment, Energy and Transport (SWEEET)

Juan Pablo Montero (PUC)

TBA

jeudi 9 juin 2022

Lunch

Rémi Generoso

TBA

jeudi 9 juin 2022

Groupe de travail « Intelligence artificielle »

Hugo Le Picard (IFRI)

Salle G614B

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mardi 14 juin 2022

Series of Webinars on Economics of Environment, Energy and Transport (SWEEET)

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TBA

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Économies du monde musulman

Amel Bouzid (CREAD, Alger)

Natural and Regulatory Underlying Factors of Food Dependency in Algeria

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