Unité mixte de recherche 7235

Testing for Extreme Volatility Transmission with Realized Volatility Measures

Christophe Boucher, Gilles de Truchis, Elena Ivona Dumitrescu, Sessi Tokpavi

This paper proposes a simple and parsimonious semi-parametric testing procedure for variance transmission. Our test focuses on conditional extreme values of the unobserved process of integrated variance since they are of utmost concern for policy makers due to their sudden and destabilizing effects. The test statistic is based on realized measures of variance and has a convenient asymptotic chi-square distribution under the null hypothesis of no Granger causality, which is free of estimation risk. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that the test has good small sample size and power properties. An extension to the case of spillovers in quadratic variation is also developed. An empirical application on extreme variance transmission from US to EU equity markets is further proposed. We find that the test performs very well in identifying periods of significant causality in extreme variance, that are subsequently found to be correlated with changes in US monetary policy.

AGENDA

vendredi 2 juin 2023

Rencontres économiques

9h30 à 11h30

Le renouveau industriel français est-il encore possible ?

jeudi 8 juin 2023

Doctorants

Sahil Chopra (Université Sorbonne Paris-Nord)

Economics of litigation : Securities class action with third-party funding

lundi 12 juin 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Arthur Silve (IAST / Univ. Laval)

TBA

jeudi 15 juin 2023

Lunch

Guillaume Pierné

TBA

lundi 19 juin 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Juan Mora-Sanguinetti (Banco de Espana)

TBA

jeudi 22 juin 2023

Doctorants

Jules Chaperon

TBA

vendredi 1 septembre 2023

Professeurs invités

Ken Yahagi

lundi 18 septembre 2023

Colloques et Workshops

L’économie de la régulation entre intérêt public et intérêts privés : capture, conflits d’intérêts et revolving doors

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