Unité mixte de recherche 7235

The Curse of Conflict: understanding the effect of terrorism on fiscal volatility

Urbain Thierry Yogo

[en]This paper investigates the effect of terrorism on fiscal policy volatility in developing countries. Using panel data analysis of 66 countries from 1970 to 2012, we find that an increase in the number of terrorist incidents raises the volatility of the discretionary component of fiscal policy. In addition, the analysis shows that investment is more responsive to terrorist attacks than consumption. We then turn to the role played by fiscal rules which appears to reduce the effect of terrorism on fiscal policy volatility. Our results are robust to reverse causality, endogeneity bias and the presence of various controls. This paper complements and extends the previous literature by providing the evidence that terrorism substantially increases the uncertainty surrounding the conduct of fiscal policy in developing countries.[/en]

AGENDA

lundi 25 septembre 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Xavier Lambin (ESSEC)

Less than meets the eye: simultaneous experiments as a source of algorithmic seeming collusion

mardi 26 septembre 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

André Orléan (EHESS)

Salle 301-302

Valeur et monnaie: une approche institutionnaliste

jeudi 28 septembre 2023

Lunch

Philippe POINSOT

Quels sont les gagnants et les perdants des réformes de la fiscalité locale en France ? Une évaluation de la suppression de la CVAE

jeudi 28 septembre 2023

Développement Durable Environnement et Energie (DDEE)

Romain Espinosa (CIRED)

Salle 614B de 11h – 12h

The Animal Welfare Levy

jeudi 5 octobre 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Aurélie Bonein (Université de Rennes 1, CREM)

TBA

jeudi 5 octobre 2023

Doctorants

Himani Pasricha

The impact of climate variability on internal migration in Thailand.

dimanche 8 octobre 2023

Professeurs invités

Fayçal Hamdi

dimanche 8 octobre 2023

Professeurs invités

Tobias Kretschmmer

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