Joint research unit 7235

A study of neighborhood influence over SME’s creditworthiness with Graph Neural Networks

Bastien Lextrait

We propose a first attempt at quantifying risk transmission between geographically close firms, as the economic environment is assumed to have an impact on the growth and survival rates of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). We assume that individual Probability of Default is driven by two risk factors: the first is linked to firm fundamentals, the second external and transmitted by neighbor-to-neighbor contagion. We test this hypothesis on the whole French SME population. We first apply modern machine learning techniques to estimate the internal risk of each firm. We then propose to use graphs and Message Passing Neural Networks (MPNN) to simulate risk contagion between neighboring firms. We apply explanatory methods to extract information from the unique structure of MPNN. We reveal statistical evidence for several candidate phenomena discussed in the literature: agglomeration economies, detrimental local competition, impact of multi-company leadership. We confirm that risk transmission is facilitated between companies sharing common characteristics such as size, sector and representatives.

AGENDA

Tuesday 3 October 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Daniel Zamora Vargas (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Présentation de l’ouvrage : Welfare for Markets : a Global History of Basic Income” (co-écrit avec Anton Jäger)

Tuesday 3 October 2023

Présentation de l’ouvrage : Welfare for Markets : a Global History of Basic Income” (co-écrit avec Anton Jäger)

Daniel Zamora Vargas (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Présentation de l’ouvrage : Welfare for Markets : a Global History of Basic Income” (co-écrit avec Anton Jäger)

Thursday 5 October 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Aurélie Bonein (Université de Rennes 1, CREM)

TBA

Thursday 5 October 2023

TBA

Aurélie Bonein (Université de Rennes 1, CREM)

TBA

Thursday 5 October 2023

The impact of climate variability on internal migration in Thailand.

Himani Pasricha

The impact of climate variability on internal migration in Thailand.

Thursday 5 October 2023

Doctorants

Himani Pasricha

The impact of climate variability on internal migration in Thailand.

Sunday 8 October 2023

Professeurs invités

Fayçal Hamdi

Sunday 8 October 2023

Professeurs invités

Tobias Kretschmmer

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