Joint research unit 7235

Cliométrie du modèle WS-PS en France

Michel-Pierre Chélini, Georges Prat

From a macroeconomic perspective and in accordance with the Wage Setting – Price Setting model (WS-PS, Layard – Nickel – Jackman (1991)), this paper aims to give a simple and simultaneous representation of the dynamics of the unemployment rate and the wage rate in France over the period of 1950-2008. Distinguishing the price level at which employees refer and the price set by employers, and subject to complementary assumptions about factors supposed but not specified in the WS-PS system, we show that the equilibrium rate of unemployment is made of a chronic component due to an excess of the real labor cost comparing to productivity, by a conjunctural component characterized by the output gap (as like the Okun law) and by a structural component including voluntary, frictional and technological factors, represented by a stochastic state variable. The social cost of unemployment implies that the observed rate of unemployment adjusts gradually towards its equilibrium value, the latter depending on the time varying degree of rigidity of employment. The rate of wage equation is supposed given by a weighted average of the WS and PS equations. As a result, the wage rate depends on the levels of price and productivity, of the margin of companies and of the rate of unemployment rate. At the empirical level, estimations are made simultaneously for the unemployment and wages with a space-state model based on the Kalman filter method allowing for the introduction of time varying coefficients characterizing the degree of rigidity of employment. In accordance with this framework, we found that the rate of unemployment tends to adjust gradually to its equilibrium level within 2.7 years and that the degree of rigidity is a time varying phenomenon. The estimated components of the equilibrium unemployment rate indicate that the chronic component is negative until 1974, hence compensating the other components and allowing to understanding the very low values (under 2%) of the unemployment rate observed during these years. After 1974, the chronic component increases to get a maximum of 6.7% in 1993, then decreasing to reach about 4% in 2008. The conjunctural component exhibits numerous minima and maxima from zero in 1973 to 4% in 1993, to reach about 2% in 2008. As expected, the structural component is smoother than the two others and ranges between 0.5% and 4% and reach about 2% in 2008. As expected, the dynamics of wages depend of a weighted average consumer and wholesale prices and of the productivity with elasticities near unity, on the margin of companies and on the rate of unemployment with a sensibility which is time varying, depending on the relative importance attributed by employees and employers to unemployment during the negotiations. Our outcomes also suggest that the bargaining powers of employees and employers are rather balanced in the average over the whole period.

AGENDA

Tuesday 7 February 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Tristan Velardo (Sciences Po Bordeaux, Centre Emile Durkheim)

Report à une date ultérieure qui sera communiquée dès que possible

From the primitive mentality to the civilization of capitalism: Schumpeter, reader of Lévy-Bruh

Tuesday 7 February 2023

From the primitive mentality to the civilization of capitalism: Schumpeter, reader of Lévy-Bruh

Tristan Velardo (Sciences Po Bordeaux, Centre Emile Durkheim)

Report à une date ultérieure qui sera communiquée dès que possible

From the primitive mentality to the civilization of capitalism: Schumpeter, reader of Lévy-Bruh

Tuesday 7 February 2023

Flood Risk Information: Evidence from Paris Housing Markets

Emmanuelle Lavaine (CEE-M - University of Montpellier)

Flood Risk Information: Evidence from Paris Housing Markets

Tuesday 7 February 2023

Développement Durable Environnement et Energie (DDEE)

Emmanuelle Lavaine (CEE-M - University of Montpellier)

Flood Risk Information: Evidence from Paris Housing Markets

Thursday 9 February 2023

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Claire Mollier

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Thursday 9 February 2023

Doctorants

Claire Mollier

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Friday 10 February 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Digital Economics Workshop

Friday 10 February 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Digital Economics Workshop

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