Joint research unit 7235

Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?

Valérie Mignon, Tovonony Razafindrabe, Marc Joëts

This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on a large sample of 19 commodity markets. We rely on a robust measure of macroeconomic uncertainty based on a wide range of monthly macroeconomic and financial indicators, and we estimate a structural threshold VAR (TVAR) model to assess whether the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on commodity price returns depends on the degree of uncertainty. Our findings show that whereas the safe-haven role of precious metals is confirmed, agricultural and industrial markets are highly sensitive to the variability and the level of macroeconomic uncertainty, respectively. In addition, we show that the recent 2007-09 recession has generated an unprecedented episode of high uncertainty in numerous commodity markets that is not necessarily accompanied by a subsequent volatility in the corresponding prices, highlighting the relevance of our uncertainty measure in linking uncertainty to predictability rather than to volatility.

AGENDA

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Nathalie Heinich (EHESS)

ANNULÉ ET REPORTÉ À UNE DATE ULTÉRIEURE

Valeur et mesure: aux limites de l’approche économique

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Valeur et mesure: aux limites de l’approche économique

Nathalie Heinich (EHESS)

ANNULÉ ET REPORTÉ À UNE DATE ULTÉRIEURE

Valeur et mesure: aux limites de l’approche économique

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Series of Webinars on Economics of Environment, Energy and Transport (SWEEET)

Aurelien Saussay(OFCE, Sciences Po, Paris), Misato Sato, (London School of Economics and Political Science) Francesco Vona (University of Milan) Layla O’Kane(Lightcast)

En visio

Who’s fit for the low-carbon transition? Emerging skills and wage gaps in job ad data

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Who’s fit for the low-carbon transition? Emerging skills and wage gaps in job ad data

Aurelien Saussay(OFCE, Sciences Po, Paris), Misato Sato, (London School of Economics and Political Science) Francesco Vona (University of Milan) Layla O’Kane(Lightcast)

En visio

Who’s fit for the low-carbon transition? Emerging skills and wage gaps in job ad data

Thursday 2 February 2023

Nouveaux doctorants

Nabil Daher, Michaël Guilloussou, Daniela Lima Rente, Maryam Soltani

Nouveaux doctorants

Thursday 2 February 2023

Lunch

Nabil Daher, Michaël Guilloussou, Daniela Lima Rente, Maryam Soltani

Nouveaux doctorants

Thursday 2 February 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Carole Treibich (Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble GAEL)

Salle 101

Disentangling peer effects in transportation mode choice: the example of active commuting

Thursday 2 February 2023

Disentangling peer effects in transportation mode choice: the example of active commuting

Carole Treibich (Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble GAEL)

Salle 101

Disentangling peer effects in transportation mode choice: the example of active commuting

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