Joint research unit 7235

Energy transition in transportation under cost uncertainty- an assessment based on robust optimization

Emmanuel Hache, Stéphane Tchung-Ming, Claire Nicolas

To improve energy security and ensure the compliance with stringent climate goals, the European Union is willing to step up its efforts to accelerate the development and deployment of electrification, and in general, of alternative fuels and propulsion methods. Yet, the costs and benefits of imposing norms on vehicle or biofuel mandates should be assessed in light of the uncertainties surrounding these pathways, in terms of e.g. cost of these new technologies. By using robust optimization, we are able to introduce uncertainty simultaneously on a high number of cost parameters without notably impacting the computing time of our model (a French TIMES paradigm model). To account for the different nature of the uncertain parameters we model two kinds of uncertainty propagation with time. We then apply this formal setting to French energy system under carbon constraint. As uncertainty increases, as does technology diversification to hedge against it. In the transportation sector, low-carbon alternatives (CNG, electricity) appear consistently as hedges against cost variations, along with biofuels. Policy implications of diversification strategies are of importance; in that sense, the work undertaken here is a step towards the design of robust technology-oriented energy policies.

AGENDA

Monday 4 March 2024

The Bright Side of the GDPR: Welfare-improving Privacy Management

Shiva Shekhar (Tilburg Univ)

The Bright Side of the GDPR: Welfare-improving Privacy Management

Monday 4 March 2024

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Shiva Shekhar (Tilburg Univ)

The Bright Side of the GDPR: Welfare-improving Privacy Management

Tuesday 5 March 2024

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Thomas Angeletti (Université Paris Dauphine PSL & IRISSO CNRS)

L’invention de l’économie française

Tuesday 5 March 2024

L’invention de l’économie française

Thomas Angeletti (Université Paris Dauphine PSL & IRISSO CNRS)

L’invention de l’économie française

Tuesday 5 March 2024

Webinar TELE – Theoretical European Law & Economics

Ester Manna (University of Barcelona, Spain)

3:00 pm to 4:15 pm (Paris time)

TBA

Tuesday 5 March 2024

TBA

Ester Manna (University of Barcelona, Spain)

3:00 pm to 4:15 pm (Paris time)

TBA

Wednesday 6 March 2024

Économies du monde musulman

Amal Briki (Agence Alnaft, Alger)

Les déterminants de la performance bancaire en Algérie

Wednesday 6 March 2024

Les déterminants de la performance bancaire en Algérie

Amal Briki (Agence Alnaft, Alger)

Les déterminants de la performance bancaire en Algérie

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