Joint research unit 7235

Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

Christophe Gouel, Nicolas Legrand

We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred to models without trend. They yield more plausible estimates of the structural parameters, with storage costs and demand elasticities that are more consistent with the literature. They imply occasional stockouts, whereas without trend the estimated models predict no stockouts over the sample period for most commodities. Moreover, accounting for a trend in the estimation imply price moments closer to those observed in commodity prices. Our results support the empirical relevance of the speculative storage model, and show that storage model estimations should not neglect the possibility of long-run price trends.

AGENDA

Thursday 7 December 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Vincent Lenglin (Université Catholique de Lille)

How Do We Apply Self-Protection to Others?

Thursday 7 December 2023

How Do We Apply Self-Protection to Others?

Vincent Lenglin (Université Catholique de Lille)

How Do We Apply Self-Protection to Others?

Thursday 7 December 2023

Explaining economic performances in the French employment zone: spatial externalities and related variety

Emmanuelle Faure

Explaining economic performances in the French employment zone: spatial externalities and related variety

Thursday 7 December 2023

Doctorants

Emmanuelle Faure

Explaining economic performances in the French employment zone: spatial externalities and related variety

Monday 11 December 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Bastien Michel (LEMNA, Nantes)

Measuring the Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism in Denmark

Monday 11 December 2023

Measuring the Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism in Denmark

Bastien Michel (LEMNA, Nantes)

Measuring the Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism in Denmark

Wednesday 13 December 2023

Économies du monde musulman

Chahir Zaki (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

Dette en Egypte : conjoncture défavorable ou structure vulnérable ?

Wednesday 13 December 2023

Dette en Egypte : conjoncture défavorable ou structure vulnérable ?

Chahir Zaki (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

Dette en Egypte : conjoncture défavorable ou structure vulnérable ?

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