Joint research unit 7235

Exchange rate predictive densities and currency risks: A quantile regression approach

Niango Ange Joseph Yapi

We investigate the ability of the Fama equation to compute proper conditional densities and currency risks. Based on quantile regressions, we fit a Skewed t-distribution to estimate the conditional densities on the monetary policy of eight currency pairs. We demonstrate that the conditional densities are highly sensitive to the monetary policy stances. Then, we use the estimated conditional densities to measure the currency risks. Our results highlight that the depreciation/appreciation risks are extremely heterogeneous and that the currencies are more exposed to depreciation risks, especially during turmoils. Our findings can be used as a supplementary tool to assess whether a currency behaves as a safe-haven currency. We also investigate the relative and absolute performance of our model in forecasting densities. We find that the predictive densities are perfectly well-calibrated. Moreover, our results also demonstrate that our methodology can outperform the random walk in forecasting densities.

AGENDA

Thursday 30 November 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Workshop on gender issues and development

Thursday 30 November 2023

Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective

Aurélien SAÏDI

Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective

Thursday 30 November 2023

Lunch

Aurélien SAÏDI

Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective

Thursday 30 November 2023

Valuing climate change costs in presence of climate-induced land use changes

François Bareille (INRAe/PSAE)

Salle 614B de 11h – 12h

Valuing climate change costs in presence of climate-induced land use changes

Thursday 30 November 2023

Développement Durable Environnement et Energie (DDEE)

François Bareille (INRAe/PSAE)

Salle 614B de 11h – 12h

Valuing climate change costs in presence of climate-induced land use changes

Tuesday 5 December 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Clément Fontan (UC Louvain)

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Tuesday 5 December 2023

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Clément Fontan (UC Louvain)

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Thursday 7 December 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Vincent Lenglin (Université Catholique de Lille)

TBA

Inscription aux Newsletters

Newsletter subscription