Joint research unit 7235

Fat-Tail Distributions and Business-Cycle Models

Guido Ascari, Giorgio Fagiolo, Andrea Roventini

Recent empirical findings suggest that macroeconomic variables are seldom normally distributed. For example, the distributions of aggregate output growth-rate time series of many OECD countries are well approximated by symmetric exponential-power (EP) densities, with Laplace fat tails. In this work, we assess whether Real Business Cycle (RBC) and standard medium-scale New-Keynesian (NK) models are able to replicate this statistical regularity. We simulate both models drawing Gaussian- vs Laplace-distributed shocks and we explore the statistical properties of simulated time series. Our results cast doubts on whether RBC and NK models are able to provide a satisfactory representation of the transmission mechanisms linking exogenous shocks to macroeconomic dynamics.

AGENDA

Tuesday 3 October 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Daniel Zamora Vargas (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Présentation de l’ouvrage : Welfare for Markets : a Global History of Basic Income” (co-écrit avec Anton Jäger)

Tuesday 3 October 2023

Présentation de l’ouvrage : Welfare for Markets : a Global History of Basic Income” (co-écrit avec Anton Jäger)

Daniel Zamora Vargas (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Présentation de l’ouvrage : Welfare for Markets : a Global History of Basic Income” (co-écrit avec Anton Jäger)

Thursday 5 October 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Aurélie Bonein (Université de Rennes 1, CREM)

TBA

Thursday 5 October 2023

TBA

Aurélie Bonein (Université de Rennes 1, CREM)

TBA

Thursday 5 October 2023

The impact of climate variability on internal migration in Thailand.

Himani Pasricha

The impact of climate variability on internal migration in Thailand.

Thursday 5 October 2023

Doctorants

Himani Pasricha

The impact of climate variability on internal migration in Thailand.

Sunday 8 October 2023

Professeurs invités

Fayçal Hamdi

Sunday 8 October 2023

Professeurs invités

Tobias Kretschmmer

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