Joint research unit 7235

Forecasting US growth during the Great Recession: Is the financial volatility the missing ingredient?

Clément Marsilli, Juan-Pablo Ortega, Laurent Ferrara

The Great Recession endured by the main industrialized countries during the period 2008-2009, in the wake of the financial and banking crisis, has pointed out the major role of the financial sector on macroeconomic fluctuations. In this paper, we reconsider macrofinancial linkages by assessing the leading role of the daily volatility of two major financial variables, namely commodity and stock prices, in their ability to anticipate US GDP growth. For this purpose, an extended MIDAS model is proposedthat allows the forecasting of the quarterly growth rate using exogenous variables sampled at various higher frequencies. Empirical results show that using both daily financial volatilities and monthly industrial production is helpful at the time of predicting quarterly GDP growth over the Great Recession period.

AGENDA

Tuesday 7 February 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Tristan Velardo (Sciences Po Bordeaux, Centre Emile Durkheim)

Report à une date ultérieure qui sera communiquée dès que possible

From the primitive mentality to the civilization of capitalism: Schumpeter, reader of Lévy-Bruh

Tuesday 7 February 2023

From the primitive mentality to the civilization of capitalism: Schumpeter, reader of Lévy-Bruh

Tristan Velardo (Sciences Po Bordeaux, Centre Emile Durkheim)

Report à une date ultérieure qui sera communiquée dès que possible

From the primitive mentality to the civilization of capitalism: Schumpeter, reader of Lévy-Bruh

Tuesday 7 February 2023

Flood Risk Information: Evidence from Paris Housing Markets

Emmanuelle Lavaine (CEE-M - University of Montpellier)

Flood Risk Information: Evidence from Paris Housing Markets

Tuesday 7 February 2023

Développement Durable Environnement et Energie (DDEE)

Emmanuelle Lavaine (CEE-M - University of Montpellier)

Flood Risk Information: Evidence from Paris Housing Markets

Thursday 9 February 2023

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Claire Mollier

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Thursday 9 February 2023

Doctorants

Claire Mollier

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Friday 10 February 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Digital Economics Workshop

Friday 10 February 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Digital Economics Workshop

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