Joint research unit 7235

Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic News Expectations: A disaggregate level analysis

Imane El Ouadghiri

The aim of this paper is to investigate heterogeneity in macroeconomic news forecasts using disaggregate data of monthly expectation surveys conducted by Bloomberg on macroeconomic indicators from January 1999 to February 2013. We find three major results. First, we show that macroeconomic indicator forecasters are mostly heterogeneous and their expectations are found to violate the rational expectation hypothesis. Second, the use of the expectation mixed model –combining extrapolative, regressive and adaptive components– reveals a large dominance of the chartist profile among forecasters with a systematical persistence over time despite all the structural breaks determined endogenously by the Bai-Perron estimation method. Third, we find that forecasters whose forecasting models combine at least two or three anticipatory components (extrapolative, and regressive or/and adaptive) and display high temporal flexibility, thus adapting to different structural breaks, are those which provide the most accurate forecasts.

AGENDA

Thursday 30 November 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Workshop on gender issues and development

Thursday 30 November 2023

Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective

Aurélien SAÏDI

Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective

Thursday 30 November 2023

Lunch

Aurélien SAÏDI

Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective

Thursday 30 November 2023

Valuing climate change costs in presence of climate-induced land use changes

François Bareille (INRAe/PSAE)

Salle 614B de 11h – 12h

Valuing climate change costs in presence of climate-induced land use changes

Thursday 30 November 2023

Développement Durable Environnement et Energie (DDEE)

François Bareille (INRAe/PSAE)

Salle 614B de 11h – 12h

Valuing climate change costs in presence of climate-induced land use changes

Tuesday 5 December 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Clément Fontan (UC Louvain)

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Tuesday 5 December 2023

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Clément Fontan (UC Louvain)

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Thursday 7 December 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Vincent Lenglin (Université Catholique de Lille)

TBA

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