Joint research unit 7235

How macroeconomic imbalances interact? Evidence from a panel VAR analysis

Valérie Mignon, Blaise Gnimassoun

This paper aims at investigating the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely current-account discrepancies (external imbalances), output gaps (internal imbalances), and exchange-rate misalignments. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR model for a sample of 22 industrialized countries over the 1980-2011 period. Our findings show that macroeconomic imbalances strongly interact through a causal relationship. We evidence that if current-account disequilibria threaten the stability of the global economy, their origin can be found in internal imbalances and exchange-rate misalignments: positive output-gap shocks as well as currency overvaluation deepen current-account deficits. In addition, while variations in external imbalances mainly result from exchange-rate misalignments in the euro area, they are mostly explained by output gaps for non-eurozone members.

AGENDA

Tuesday 5 December 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Clément Fontan (UC Louvain)

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Tuesday 5 December 2023

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Clément Fontan (UC Louvain)

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Thursday 7 December 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Vincent Lenglin (Université Catholique de Lille)

TBA

Thursday 7 December 2023

TBA

Vincent Lenglin (Université Catholique de Lille)

TBA

Thursday 7 December 2023

Explaining economic performances in the French employment zone: spatial externalities and related variety

Emmanuelle Faure

Explaining economic performances in the French employment zone: spatial externalities and related variety

Thursday 7 December 2023

Doctorants

Emmanuelle Faure

Explaining economic performances in the French employment zone: spatial externalities and related variety

Monday 11 December 2023

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Bastien Michel (LEMNA, Nantes)

Measuring the Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism in Denmark

Monday 11 December 2023

Measuring the Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism in Denmark

Bastien Michel (LEMNA, Nantes)

Measuring the Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism in Denmark

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