Joint research unit 7235

Les cycles de souscription de l’assurance non vie en France

Catherine Bruneau, Nadia Sghaier

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the presence and determinants of the underwriting cycle in non-life insurance for France for the industry and for two individual lines which one long and one short for the period 1963-2004 and 1982-2004. First, the estimation of the AR(2) process of the rate of growth of premiums shows the presence of a cyclical behavior since 80 for the aggregate sector and for the automobile line. Second, we aim to determine their causes. For that, we consider the amount of claims and expenses, equities and returns on financial assets. We adopt a multivariate approach and we estimate an error correction vector model that allows the distinction between the e¤ects of short and long term. We provide evidence of causality between different variables and we end with an impulse analysis. The empirical results that we get are interpreted with reference to principal hypothesis made in the literature to explain the cycle and financial model of insurance pricing. These results show that the causes vary across lines and periods.

AGENDA

Monday 26 February 2024

Colloques et Workshops

9ème conférence euro-africaine et économie / Mediterranean workshop in economic theory

Monday 26 February 2024

Colloques et Workshops

9ème conférence euro-africaine et économie / Mediterranean workshop in economic theory

Monday 26 February 2024

Domino Secessions : Evidence from the US

Jean Lacroix (U Paris Saclay, RITM)

Domino Secessions : Evidence from the US

Monday 26 February 2024

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Jean Lacroix (U Paris Saclay, RITM)

Domino Secessions : Evidence from the US

Tuesday 27 February 2024

Colloques et Workshops

Harcèlement moral et sexuel dans la recherche

Tuesday 27 February 2024

Colloques et Workshops

Harcèlement moral et sexuel dans la recherche

Thursday 29 February 2024

Thomas Jacquet, Amady Léchenet, Albin Salmon, Benjamin Trouvé

Nouveaux Doctorants II

Thomas Jacquet, Amady Léchenet, Albin Salmon, Benjamin Trouvé

Thursday 29 February 2024

Lunch

Nouveaux Doctorants II

Thomas Jacquet, Amady Léchenet, Albin Salmon, Benjamin Trouvé

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