Joint research unit 7235

Media Perception of Fed Chair’s Overconfidence and Market Expectations

Hamza Bennani

This paper aims to assess the impact of media perception of Fed chair’s overconfidence on market expectations. We first use a media-based proxy to compute a measure of Fed chair’s overconfidence for the period 1999M01-2017M07, the overconfidence indicator. The overconfidence indicator provides a measure of the perceived overconfidence of the Fed chair by the media, and thus, by financial market participants. We relate this variable to inflation and unemployment expectations of market participants. Our results show that an overconfident Fed chair is associated with higher inflation expectations and lower unemployment expectations. These findings are robust to (i) the macroeconomic forecasts used to extract the exogenous component of the media-based proxy reflecting Fed chair’s overconfidence, (ii) different measures of the media-based proxy used to quantify Fed chair’s overconfidence and (iii) different measures of inflation expectations. These findings shed some new light on the impact of central bankers’ personality on market expectations, and thus, on the effectiveness of their monetary policy decisions.

AGENDA

Tuesday 7 February 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Tristan Velardo (Sciences Po Bordeaux, Centre Emile Durkheim)

Report à une date ultérieure qui sera communiquée dès que possible

From the primitive mentality to the civilization of capitalism: Schumpeter, reader of Lévy-Bruh

Tuesday 7 February 2023

From the primitive mentality to the civilization of capitalism: Schumpeter, reader of Lévy-Bruh

Tristan Velardo (Sciences Po Bordeaux, Centre Emile Durkheim)

Report à une date ultérieure qui sera communiquée dès que possible

From the primitive mentality to the civilization of capitalism: Schumpeter, reader of Lévy-Bruh

Tuesday 7 February 2023

Flood Risk Information: Evidence from Paris Housing Markets

Emmanuelle Lavaine (CEE-M - University of Montpellier)

Flood Risk Information: Evidence from Paris Housing Markets

Tuesday 7 February 2023

Développement Durable Environnement et Energie (DDEE)

Emmanuelle Lavaine (CEE-M - University of Montpellier)

Flood Risk Information: Evidence from Paris Housing Markets

Thursday 9 February 2023

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Claire Mollier

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Thursday 9 February 2023

Doctorants

Claire Mollier

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Friday 10 February 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Digital Economics Workshop

Friday 10 February 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Digital Economics Workshop

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