Joint research unit 7235

On the link between forward energy prices: A nonlinear panel cointegration approach

Valérie Mignon, Marc Joëts

This paper investigates the relationship between forward prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity using a nonlinear panel cointegration framework. To this end, we consider a panel of 35 maturities and control for the economic and financial environment using equity futures prices. Estimating the cointegrating relationship, we find that oil, gas and coal forward prices are positively linked, while the negative link between oil and electricity prices is consistent with a substitution effect between the two energy sources on the long run. Estimating panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models, we show that the forward oil price adjustment process toward its equilibrium value is nonlinear and asymmetric, putting forward the key role played by self-sustaining dynamics and speculation phenomena.

AGENDA

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Nathalie Heinich (EHESS)

ANNULÉ ET REPORTÉ À UNE DATE ULTÉRIEURE

Valeur et mesure: aux limites de l’approche économique

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Valeur et mesure: aux limites de l’approche économique

Nathalie Heinich (EHESS)

ANNULÉ ET REPORTÉ À UNE DATE ULTÉRIEURE

Valeur et mesure: aux limites de l’approche économique

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Series of Webinars on Economics of Environment, Energy and Transport (SWEEET)

Aurelien Saussay(OFCE, Sciences Po, Paris), Misato Sato, (London School of Economics and Political Science) Francesco Vona (University of Milan) Layla O’Kane(Lightcast)

En visio

Who’s fit for the low-carbon transition? Emerging skills and wage gaps in job ad data

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Who’s fit for the low-carbon transition? Emerging skills and wage gaps in job ad data

Aurelien Saussay(OFCE, Sciences Po, Paris), Misato Sato, (London School of Economics and Political Science) Francesco Vona (University of Milan) Layla O’Kane(Lightcast)

En visio

Who’s fit for the low-carbon transition? Emerging skills and wage gaps in job ad data

Thursday 2 February 2023

Nouveaux doctorants

Nabil Daher, Michaël Guilloussou, Daniela Lima Rente, Maryam Soltani

Nouveaux doctorants

Thursday 2 February 2023

Lunch

Nabil Daher, Michaël Guilloussou, Daniela Lima Rente, Maryam Soltani

Nouveaux doctorants

Thursday 2 February 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Carole Treibich (Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble GAEL)

Salle 101

Disentangling peer effects in transportation mode choice: the example of active commuting

Thursday 2 February 2023

Disentangling peer effects in transportation mode choice: the example of active commuting

Carole Treibich (Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble GAEL)

Salle 101

Disentangling peer effects in transportation mode choice: the example of active commuting

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