Joint research unit 7235

Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model

Anaïs Henneguelle, François-Charles Wolff, Benjamin Monnery

This paper investigates the effect of semi-liberty as an alternative to prison on recidivism in France. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset comprising 1,445 offenders, all eligible to semi-liberty. In the absence of an instrumental variable affecting access to semi-liberty but unrelated to recidivism, we turn to selection-on-observable methods as well as sensitivity analyses to bound the causal effect of interest. Our results under treatment exogeneity (Cox regressions) and conditional independence (matching) show that semi-liberty is associated with a reduction of 22% to 31% in offenders’ hazard of recidivism in the five years after release. The estimated effects decrease, but remain negative and significant when credible confounders are introduced. Overall, our analysis lends strong support for a beneficial effect of semi-liberty compared to prison.

AGENDA

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Nathalie Heinich (EHESS)

ANNULÉ ET REPORTÉ À UNE DATE ULTÉRIEURE

Valeur et mesure: aux limites de l’approche économique

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Valeur et mesure: aux limites de l’approche économique

Nathalie Heinich (EHESS)

ANNULÉ ET REPORTÉ À UNE DATE ULTÉRIEURE

Valeur et mesure: aux limites de l’approche économique

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Series of Webinars on Economics of Environment, Energy and Transport (SWEEET)

Aurelien Saussay(OFCE, Sciences Po, Paris), Misato Sato, (London School of Economics and Political Science) Francesco Vona (University of Milan) Layla O’Kane(Lightcast)

En visio

Who’s fit for the low-carbon transition? Emerging skills and wage gaps in job ad data

Tuesday 31 January 2023

Who’s fit for the low-carbon transition? Emerging skills and wage gaps in job ad data

Aurelien Saussay(OFCE, Sciences Po, Paris), Misato Sato, (London School of Economics and Political Science) Francesco Vona (University of Milan) Layla O’Kane(Lightcast)

En visio

Who’s fit for the low-carbon transition? Emerging skills and wage gaps in job ad data

Thursday 2 February 2023

Nouveaux doctorants

Nabil Daher, Michaël Guilloussou, Daniela Lima Rente, Maryam Soltani

Nouveaux doctorants

Thursday 2 February 2023

Lunch

Nabil Daher, Michaël Guilloussou, Daniela Lima Rente, Maryam Soltani

Nouveaux doctorants

Thursday 2 February 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Carole Treibich (Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble GAEL)

Salle 101

Disentangling peer effects in transportation mode choice: the example of active commuting

Thursday 2 February 2023

Disentangling peer effects in transportation mode choice: the example of active commuting

Carole Treibich (Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble GAEL)

Salle 101

Disentangling peer effects in transportation mode choice: the example of active commuting

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