Joint research unit 7235

Slow oil shocks and the “weakening of the oil price macroeconomy relationship”

Théo Naccache

Many papers have been documenting and analysing the asymmetry and the weakening of the oil price – macroeconomy relationship as off the early eighties. While there seems to be a consensus about the factors causing the asymmetry, namely adjustment costs which offset the benefits of low energy prices, the debate about the weakening of the relationship is not over yet. Moreover, the alternative oil price specifications which have been proposed by Mork (1989), Lee et al. (1995), and Hamilton (1996) to restore the stability of the relationship fail to Granger cause output or unemployment in post-1980 data. By using the concept of accelerations of the oil price, we show that the weakening of this relationship corresponds to the appearance of slow oil price increases, which have less impact on the economy. When filtering out these slow oil price variations from the sample, we manage to rehabilitate the causality running from the oil price to the macroeconomy and show that far from weakening, the oil price accelerations – GDP relationship has even been growing stronger since the early eighties.

AGENDA

Thursday 9 February 2023

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Claire Mollier

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Thursday 9 February 2023

Doctorants

Claire Mollier

Gender, competitiveness, and reaction to defeat

Friday 10 February 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Digital Economics Workshop

Friday 10 February 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Digital Economics Workshop

Tuesday 14 February 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Thibault Mirabel

Firms and Cooperatives: The Social Organizations of Production in Market Economies

Tuesday 14 February 2023

Firms and Cooperatives: The Social Organizations of Production in Market Economies

Thibault Mirabel

Firms and Cooperatives: The Social Organizations of Production in Market Economies

Wednesday 15 February 2023

Pratique du Takaful en France: l’expérience de SAAFI

Ezzedine GHLAMALLAH (CERGAM, Université Aix-Marseille)

Pratique du Takaful en France: l’expérience de SAAFI

Wednesday 15 February 2023

Économies du monde musulman

Ezzedine GHLAMALLAH (CERGAM, Université Aix-Marseille)

Pratique du Takaful en France: l’expérience de SAAFI

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