Joint research unit 7235

Sovereign spreads in emerging economies: do natural resources matter?

Magali Dauvin

Natural resource prices have been plunging since early 2014, constituing a threat to emerging markets whose revenues mainly stem from commodity exports. Within this context, the purpose of this paper is to investigate to what extent commodities are reflected in financial markets’ assessment of emerging country risk, and if a special premium is added for commodity exporters. We focus on 22 emerging markets sovereign spreads and assess how prices and their commodity trade structure are gauged by investors. Our results indicate that commodity prices are relevant for exporters, as they help relaxing the credit constraint in periods of increasing prices. As for resourcepoor countries, they are of no importance when assessing sovereign risk. Also, global financial markets do not pay attention to dependence on natural resources although they are now suffering from collapsing prices. Finally, high variations in commodity prices are not particularly reflected in the way markets assess sovereign risk.

AGENDA

Tuesday 5 March 2024

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Thomas Angeletti (Université Paris Dauphine PSL & IRISSO CNRS)

L’invention de l’économie française

Tuesday 5 March 2024

L’invention de l’économie française

Thomas Angeletti (Université Paris Dauphine PSL & IRISSO CNRS)

L’invention de l’économie française

Tuesday 5 March 2024

Webinar TELE – Theoretical European Law & Economics

Ester Manna (University of Barcelona, Spain)

3:00 pm to 4:15 pm (Paris time)

TBA

Tuesday 5 March 2024

TBA

Ester Manna (University of Barcelona, Spain)

3:00 pm to 4:15 pm (Paris time)

TBA

Wednesday 6 March 2024

Économies du monde musulman

Amal Briki (Agence Alnaft, Alger)

Les déterminants de la performance bancaire en Algérie

Wednesday 6 March 2024

Les déterminants de la performance bancaire en Algérie

Amal Briki (Agence Alnaft, Alger)

Les déterminants de la performance bancaire en Algérie

Thursday 7 March 2024

Climate Change has Likely Already Affected Yield Growth and Migration: Evidence from the Corn Belt.

Michaël Guillossou

Climate Change has Likely Already Affected Yield Growth and Migration: Evidence from the Corn Belt.

Thursday 7 March 2024

Doctorants

Michaël Guillossou

Climate Change has Likely Already Affected Yield Growth and Migration: Evidence from the Corn Belt.

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