Joint research unit 7235

The nature of financial and real business cycles: The great moderation and banking sector pro cyclicality

Douglas Sutherland, Balázs Egert

This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators. It first analyses the main characteristics of the cycle, including the length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of these parameters during expansions and contractions. It then studies the degree of economic and financial cycle synchronisation between OECD countries but also of economic and financial variables within a given country, and gauges the extent to which cycle synchronisation changed over time. Finally, the paper provides some new evidence on the drivers of the great moderation and analyses the banking sector’s pro-cyclicality by using aggregate and bank-level data. The main findings show that the amplitude of the real business cycle was becoming smaller during the great moderation, but asset price cycles were becoming more volatile. In part this was linked to developments in the banking sector which tended to accentuate pro-cyclical behaviour.

AGENDA

Monday 4 March 2024

The Bright Side of the GDPR: Welfare-improving Privacy Management

Shiva Shekhar (Tilburg Univ)

The Bright Side of the GDPR: Welfare-improving Privacy Management

Monday 4 March 2024

Law, Institutions and Economics in Nanterre (LIEN)

Shiva Shekhar (Tilburg Univ)

The Bright Side of the GDPR: Welfare-improving Privacy Management

Tuesday 5 March 2024

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Thomas Angeletti (Université Paris Dauphine PSL & IRISSO CNRS)

L’invention de l’économie française

Tuesday 5 March 2024

L’invention de l’économie française

Thomas Angeletti (Université Paris Dauphine PSL & IRISSO CNRS)

L’invention de l’économie française

Tuesday 5 March 2024

Webinar TELE – Theoretical European Law & Economics

Ester Manna (University of Barcelona, Spain)

3:00 pm to 4:15 pm (Paris time)

TBA

Tuesday 5 March 2024

TBA

Ester Manna (University of Barcelona, Spain)

3:00 pm to 4:15 pm (Paris time)

TBA

Wednesday 6 March 2024

Économies du monde musulman

Amal Briki (Agence Alnaft, Alger)

Les déterminants de la performance bancaire en Algérie

Wednesday 6 March 2024

Les déterminants de la performance bancaire en Algérie

Amal Briki (Agence Alnaft, Alger)

Les déterminants de la performance bancaire en Algérie

Inscription aux Newsletters

Newsletter subscription