Joint research unit 7235

What do bankrupcty prediction models tell us about banking regulation? Evidence from statistical and learning approaches

Gaëtan Le Quang, Pierre Durand

Prudential regulation is supposed to strengthen financial stability and banks’ resilience to new economic shocks. We tackle this issue by evaluating the impact of leverage, capital, and liquidity ratios on banks default probability. To this aim, we use logistic regression, random forest classification, and artificial neural networks applied on the United-States and European samples over the 2000-2018 period. Our results are based on 4707 banks in the US and 3529 banks in Europe, among which 454 and 205 defaults respectively. We show that, in the US sample, capital and equity ratios have strong negative impact on default probability. Liquidity ratio has a positive effect which can be justified by the low returns associated with liquid assets. Overall, our investigation suggests that fewer prudential rules and higher leverage ratio should reinforce the banking system’s resilience. Because of the lack of official failed banks list in Europe, our findings on this sample are more delicate to interpret.

AGENDA

Thursday 30 November 2023

Colloques et Workshops

Workshop on gender issues and development

Thursday 30 November 2023

Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective

Aurélien SAÏDI

Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective

Thursday 30 November 2023

Lunch

Aurélien SAÏDI

Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective

Thursday 30 November 2023

Valuing climate change costs in presence of climate-induced land use changes

François Bareille (INRAe/PSAE)

Salle 614B de 11h – 12h

Valuing climate change costs in presence of climate-induced land use changes

Thursday 30 November 2023

Développement Durable Environnement et Energie (DDEE)

François Bareille (INRAe/PSAE)

Salle 614B de 11h – 12h

Valuing climate change costs in presence of climate-induced land use changes

Tuesday 5 December 2023

Recherche et Economie et Socioéconomie Politique, des Institutions et des Régulations (RESPIR)

Clément Fontan (UC Louvain)

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Tuesday 5 December 2023

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Clément Fontan (UC Louvain)

The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1998-2023)

Thursday 7 December 2023

Groupe de travail Economie Comportementale

Vincent Lenglin (Université Catholique de Lille)

TBA

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