Photo Dramane Coulibaly

Dramane Coulibaly

Maître de conférences avec HDR
  • Email
  • Tél. professionnel 0140977818
  • Bureau à Paris Nanterre (Bât. + num.) G522
  • Axe de recherche

      Macroéconomie Internationale, Banque et Econométrie Financière

  • Thème(s)
    • Economie appliquée
    • Macroéconomie internationale
    • Economie du développement
    • Migration internationale

2018-24 "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances"

Dramane Coulibaly, Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
Suivant la dynamique de globalisation, les migrations internationales ont connu une vive croissance depuis les années 1990. Dans la mesure où ces migrations peuvent masquer la structure démographique naturelle des pays, elles sont susceptibles d'expliquer une part importante des déséquilibres mondiaux. Cet article aborde cette question en étudiant le rôle joué par les migrations internationales dans la dynamique des déséquilibres globaux. À cette fin, nous nous appuyons sur un modèle à générations imbriquées pour établir la relation théorique entre migrations internationales et solde courant. Grâce à une série d'estimations robustes, nous étudions empiriquement cette relation pour un panel de 157 pays développés et en développement au cours de la période 1990-2014. Nos résultats mettent en avant le rôle crucial des migrations internationales. Plus précisément, nous montrons qu'une augmentation des migrations améliore le taux d'épargne et le solde courant dans les pays d’accueil, alors qu'elle exerce des effets opposés dans le pays d'origine. Ces effets sont particulièrement prononcés dans les pays en développement, et atténués par les transferts de fonds.
Classification-JEL
F22; F32; O55; C33
Mot(s) clé(s)
Migrations internationales, solde courant, déséquilibres globaux, transferts de fonds
Fichier

2017-28 "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France"

Ekrame Boubtane, Dramane Coulibaly, Hippolyte d'Ablis

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
This article examines the causal relations between immigration and the characteristics of the housing market in host regions. We constructed a unique database from administrative records and used it to assess annual migration ows into France's 22 administrative regions from 1990 to 2013. We then estimated various panel VAR models,taking into account GDP per capita and the unemployment rate as the main regional economic indicators. We find that immigration has no significant effect on property prices, but that higher property prices significantly reduce immigration rates. We also find no significant relationship between immigration and social housing supply.
Classification-JEL
E20, F22, J61
Mot(s) clé(s)
Immigration, Property Prices, Social Housing, Panel VAR
Fichier

2017-12 "Inflation Targeting and the Forward Bias Puzzle in Emerging Countries"

Dramane Coulibaly, Hubert Kempf

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
Based on quarterly data on 31 emerging countries (among which 16 are inflation targeting countries) from 1990Q1 to 2014Q3, we obtain a strong support for the conjecture that the implementation of inflation targeting weakens the Fisherian relation between expected depreciation and the interest rate differential (uncovered interest parity condition) and thus is conducive to the appearance of the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries. We show that this reects the performance of inflation targeting regimes in lowering the level and volatility of inflation which leads non-Fisherian fundamentals to be predominant. Our finding holds when controlling for country-specific effects, time-specific effects, global disinflationation, exchange rate management and using different econometric techniques.
Classification-JEL
E31 E52 F31
Mot(s) clé(s)
Inflation targeting; uncovered interest parity; forward bias puzzle; emerging countries
Fichier

2016-39 "Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the effective transmission channel for Africa?"

Dramane Coulibaly, Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
This paper investigates the growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and to migration by focusing on African countries. Relying on robust estimation techniques dealing with both endogeneity and omitted variables issues, our results put forward the importance of accounting for the type of the partner country. We find evidence that while trade between Africa and industrialized countries has a clear and robust positive impact on Africa's standards of living, trade with developing countries fails to be growth-enhancing. Moreover, our findings show that migration has no significant effect on per capita income in Africa regardless of the partner. Finally, exploring the trade openness transmission channel, we establish that the growth-enhancing effect of Africa's trade with industrialized countries mainly occurs through an improvement in total factor productivity.
Classification-JEL
Trade, International migration, Income per person, Africa.
Mot(s) clé(s)
F22, F4, O4, O55.
Fichier

2015-5 "Immigration Policy and Macroeconomic Performance in France"

Ekrame Boubtane, Dramane Coulibaly, Hippolyte d'Albis

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
This paper quantitatively assesses the interaction between permanent immigration into France and France's macroeconomic performance as seen through its GDP per capita and its unemployment rate. It takes advantage of a new database where immigration is measured by the ow of newly-issued long-term residence permits, categorized by both the nationality of the immigrant and the reason of permit issuance. Using a VAR model estimation of monthly data over the period 1994-2008, we find that immigration ow significantly responds to France's macroeconomic performance: positively to the country's GDP per capita and negatively to its unemployment rate. At the same time, we find that immigration itself increases France's GDP per capita, particularly in the case of family immigration. This family immigration also reduces the country's unemployment rate, especially when the families come from developing countries.
Classification-JEL
E20, F22, J61
Mot(s) clé(s)
Immigration, Female and Family Migration, Growth, Unemployment, VAR Models.
Fichier

2013-29 "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: the role of financial development"

Jean-Pierre Allegret, Cécile Couharde, Dramane Coulibaly, Valérie Mignon

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition regression models over the 1980-2010 period, we provide evidence that refines the traditional interpretation of oil price effects on current accounts. While current accounts are positively affected by oil price variations, this effect is nonlinear and depends critically on the degree of financial development of oil-exporting economies. More specifically, oil price variations exert a positive impact on the current account position for less financially developed countries, while this influence tends to diminish when the degree of financial deepness augments.
Classification-JEL
F32, C33
Mot(s) clé(s)
current account; oil price; financial development; panel smooth transition regression models
Fichier

2013-14 "Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries"

Ekrame Boubtane, Dramane Coulibaly, Christophe Rault

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach of K´onya (2006) that is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for Granger causality on each individual panel member separately by taking into account the contemporaneous correlation across countries. Using annual data over the 1980-2005 period for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. On the other hand, our results show that, in four countries (France, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom), growth positively causes
immigration, whereas in any country, immigration does not cause growth.
Classification-JEL
E20, F22, J61
Mot(s) clé(s)
Immigration, growth, unemployment, causality
Fichier

2013-13 "Immigration et croissance économique en France entre 1994 et 2008"

Ekrame Boubtane, Dramane Coulibaly, Hippolyte d'ALBIS

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
Cet article propose une évaluation quantitative des interactions entre d’une part, le Produit Intérieur Brut (PIB) par habitant et le taux de chômage, et d’autre part, l’immigration permanente en France métropolitaine sur la période 1994-2008. L’immigration est mesurée par les titres de séjour de plus d’un an accordés aux étrangers en provenance des pays tiers et est décomposée par motifs d’admission. L’estimation de modèles vectoriels autorégressifs (VAR) donne les résultats suivants. Le taux d’immigration, et en particulier d’immigration familiale, a un effet positif et significatif sur le PIB par habitant, tandis que les effets de l’immigration sur le chômage ne sont pas significatifs. Par ailleurs, le PIB par habitant a un effet positif et significatif sur le taux d’immigration et le taux de chômage à un effet négatif et significatif sur le taux d’immigration de travail.
Classification-JEL
E20, F22, J61
Mot(s) clé(s)
Immigration, Croissance, Modèles VAR
Fichier

2013-3 "The Impact of Market Regulations on Intra-European Real Exchange Rates"

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Dramane Coulibaly

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
We study the contribution of market regulations in the dynamics of the real exchange rate within the European Union. Based on a model proposed by De Gregorio et al. (1994a), we show that both product market regulations in nontradable sectors and employment protection tend to inflate the real exchange rate. We then carry out an econometric estimation for European countries over 1985-2006 to quantify the contributions of the pure Balassa-Samuelson effect and those of market regulations in real exchange-rate variations. Based on this evidence and on a counter-factual experiment, we conclude that the relative evolution of product market regulations and employment protection across countries play a very significant role in real exchange- rate variations within the European Union and especially within the Euro area, through theirs impacts on the relative price of nontradable goods.
Classification-JEL
F41, J50, L40
Mot(s) clé(s)
Real exchange rate, Balassa-Samuelson effect, Product market regulations, Employment
Fichier

2013-7 "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies"

Benjamin Carton, Dramane Coulibaly, Marc Pourroy

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
The two episodes of food price surges in 2007 and 2011 have been particularly challenging for developing and emerging economies’ central banks and have raised the question of how monetary authorities should react to such external relative price shocks. We develop a new-Keynesian small open-economy model and show that non-food inflation is a good proxy for core inflation in high-income countries, but not for middle-income and low-income countries. Although, in these countries we find that associating non-food inflation and core inflation may be promoting badly designed policies, and consequently central banks should target headline inflation rather than non-food inflation. This result holds because non-tradable food represents a significant share in total consumption. Indeed, the poorer the country, the higher the share of purely domestic food in consumption and the more detrimental lack of attention to the evolution in food prices.
Classification-JEL
E32, E52, O23
Mot(s) clé(s)
Monetary Policy, Commodities, Food prices, DSGE models
Fichier
load Veuillez patienter ...