Photo David Guerreiro

David Guerreiro

Maître de conférences
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  • Axe de recherche

      Macroéconomie Internationale, Banque et Econométrie Financière

  • Thème(s)
    • Unions monétaires
    • Economie internationale
    • Economie du développement
    • Econométrie

2016-14 "The Paradox of Plenty: A Meta-Analysis"

Magali Dauvin, David Guerreiro

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Résumé
Since Sachs and Warner’s seminal paper in 1995, a conventional wisdom has spread in the academic literature stating that a high endowment in natural resources may be detrimental for growth. The great heterogeneity of development paths followed among resource-rich countries has shown that the resource curse was not always inevitable, and that there existed ways to make the most of one’s natural wealth. We identified three sources of heterogeneity in the literature: the use of abundance and intensity measures, the account for appropriability aspects of resources and finally, the role of institutions. In this paper, we aim at providing quantitative results on the magnitude of the link between natural resources and growth found in the literature, as well as discussing, on quantitative bases, whether the sources of heterogeneity are significant. To this end, we implement a meta-analysis based on 67 empirical studies that investigate the link between natural resources and growth, totaling 1405 estimates. The results show a "soft" curse that may be reverted together with the importance of institutions in mitigating the curse.
Classification-JEL
C82, O11, O13.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Meta-analysis; Resource Curse; Natural Resources; Appropriability; Institutions.
Fichier

2012-34 "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?"

Cécile Couharde, Issiaka Coulibaly, David Guerreiro, Valérie Mignon

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Résumé
This paper aims at explaining why the CFA countries have successfully maintained a currency union for several decades, despite failing to meet many of optimum currency area criteria. We suggest that the CFA zone, while not optimal, has been at least sustainable. We test this sustainability hypothesis by relying on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. In particular, we assess and compare the convergence process of real exchange rates towards equilibrium for the CFA zone countries and a sample of other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our findings evidence that internal and external balances have been fostered and adjustments facilitated in the CFA zone as a whole—compared to other SSA countries—as well as in each of its member countries.
Classification-JEL
F31 F33 C23
Mot(s) clé(s)
Equilibrium exchange rates; CFA zone; Optimum Currency Areas; currency union sustainability
Fichier

2012-4 "Is price dynamics homogeneous across Eurozone countries?"

David Guerreiro, Marc Joëts, Valérie Mignon

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Résumé
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether price dynamics is homogeneous across the Eurozone countries. Relying on monthly data over the January 1970-July 2011 period, we test for the absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis through the implementation of second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests. Our results show that price dynamics are heterogeneous depending on both the time period and the considered group of countries. More specifically, while PPP is validated for the core EMU countries, this hypothesis does not hold for Northern peripheral economies. Turning to the Southern countries, PPP is observed only before the launch of the euro.
Classification-JEL
C23, E31, F15, F41
Mot(s) clé(s)
price convergence, Eurozone, panel unit root tests, half-life
Fichier

2011-34 "On price convergence in Eurozone"

David Guerreiro, Valérie Mignon

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Résumé
We investigate price level convergence with Germany in eleven countries belonging to the Eurozone between January 1970 and July 2011. Relying on smooth transition regression models, we show that the price convergence process is nonlinear, depending on the size of the price differential: for most countries, price convergence occurs only when price differentials with Germany exceed a certain threshold. Moreover, our findings put forward some heterogeneity across the Eurozone members in terms of price convergence speed, that can be explained by the evolution of price-competitiveness, rigidities in labor markets, but also by specialization patterns.
Classification-JEL
C22, E31, F15, F41
Mot(s) clé(s)
price convergence, Eurozone, smooth transition regression models, half-life
Fichier

2010-26 "On the impact of US subsidies on world cotton prices: a meta-analysis approach"

David Guerreiro

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Résumé
Despite the vast literature dealing with the impact of the subsidies on world cotton prices, there is no consensus regarding the quantification of these effects. The aim of this paper is to contribute to this literature through the implementation of a meta-regression analysis. This methodology allows us to: (i) identify the main sources of heterogeneity between the primary studies, (ii) give some tracks to improve the modeling, (iii) provide a reliable quantification of the removal of subsidies on world cotton prices. Relying on the estimation of various models to derive robust results, our findings show that a withdrawal of US subsidies would increase the world cotton price by around 10%.
Classification-JEL
Q17 Q18 C82
Mot(s) clé(s)
Meta-Regression Analysis; Mixed Effect Sizes; Cotton; Subsidies; Agriculture
Fichier

2009-44 "Une méta-analyse de l’impact des subventions sur le prix mondial du coton"

David Guerreiro

Voir Télécharger le document de travail (via EconPapers)

Résumé
Malgré le nombre relativement important d'études sur les impacts des subventions sur le prix mondial du coton, il n’existe pas de consensus concernant la quantification de ces effets. L'objectif de cet article est, par le biais de la méta-analyse, d'expliquer la source de l'hétérogénéité de ces résultats, de donner des indications quant aux variables à inclure afin de modéliser la dynamique du prix mondial, mais aussi de présenter le chiffrage des effets des subventions qu'apporte notre méta-analyse. Nous montrons que les principales sources de variations entre les études se trouvent dans les valeurs retenues pour les élasticités de l’offre et la demande, dans le montant retenu pour les subventions, ainsi que dans la prise en compte (ou non) de certains caractères indispensables. Une modélisation appropriée requiert ainsi une estimation précise des élasticités et la prise en compte de certains facteurs constitutifs du prix mondial du coton tels que les niveaux de stocks ou le prix du polyester.
Classification-JEL
Q17, Q18, C82
Mot(s) clé(s)
Meta-regression analysis (MRA), cotton, subsidies, agriculture.
Fichier
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