Publications: Documents de travail

Publications: Documents de travail 2014

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2014-1 "Rueff et l’analyse du chômage : Quels héritages?"

Georges Prat

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Résumé
Cet article montre que Rueff (1925, 1931) distinguait [a] un chômage « permanent » attribuable à un excès des salaires réels par rapport au rendement du travail, [b] un chômage « temporaire » attribuable à une baisse de l’activité économique liée à une diminution cyclique des prix, enfin [c] un chômage «minimal» de type frictionnel prévalant dans le fonctionnement normal de l’économie. Sur la base d’observations empiriques, Rueff suggère que le chômage de type [a] était largement dominant dans l’Angleterre des années 1920 (« loi de Rueff »). La confrontation entre cette analyse et les analyses postérieures du chômage dans la littérature permet de dégager que : (i) la courbe de Phillips et son extension avec le NAIRU est un non-héritage ; (ii) la courbe des salaires (« wage curve ») s’accorde avec la « loi de Rueff » tout en constituant un intéressant complément; (iii) l’équation d’Allais du chômage français se décalque très bien sur les trois types de chômage distingués par Rueff; (iv) bien qu’étant aujourd’hui délaissée, la théorie des équilibres temporaires à prix fixes inclut le chômage de type [a], ceci que l’on regarde le régime de chômage « classique » ou celui de chômage « keynésien » ; (v) la nouvelle micro-économie keynésienne du travail montre qu’un chômage de type [a] peut être expliqué par le comportement rationnel des agents sans faire intervenir des rigidités exogènes imposées par l’Etat ; ce résultat généralise l’idée d’un chômage de type [a] mais constitue une réfutation de la possibilité admise par Rueff d’un équilibre concurrentiel spontané sur le marché du travail en l’absence de rigidités exogènes; (vi) le modèle de concurrence imparfaite WS-PS fondé sur la négociation entre salariés et employeurs s’accorde avec les trois types de chômage [a], [b] et [c], au point où l’on peut y voir une synthèse rejoignant Rueff et Allais.
Classification-JEL
E24, J2, J30, N34
Mot(s) clé(s)
chômage, rigidité des salaires, Jacques Rueff
Fichier

2014-2 "Board independence and operating performance: Analysis on (French) company and individual data"

Sandra Cavaco, Edouard Challe, Patricia Crifo, Antoine Rebérioux, Gwenael Roudaut

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Résumé
While often criticized, independence remains the ultimate criterion for evaluating board composition, whether for regulators or shareholder activists. In this study, we examine the relationship between board independence and firm operating performance in a panel of French listed companies, paying particular attention to heterogeneity and endogeneity concerns. We take advantage of an original database, with a time-series dimension that can be used to mitigate heterogeneity and dynamic endogeneity issues through GMM estimators. In addition, this database can be disaggregated at the individual (director) level. This design enables us to introduce firm fixed effects and individual fixed effects in (firm) performance equations, thereby controlling for heterogeneity at the firm and individual levels. To our knowledge, this is the first paper so far to provide a systematic account on this issue for France. Our main result is to document a significant negative relationship between accounting performance and the independence status (irrespective of the person). This result supports the argument of an information gap suffered by independent board members, as developed by Adams and Ferreira (2007).
Classification-JEL
G30, G34
Mot(s) clé(s)
board structure, independent directors, informational gap, GMM estimator, director fixed effects, individual heterogeneity
Fichier

2014-3 "On the impact of oil price volatility on the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies"

Virginie Coudert, Cécile Couharde, Valérie Mignon

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Résumé
The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between terms of trade and real exchange rates of commodity-producing countries on both the short and the long run. We pay particular attention to the dominant role played by oil among commodities by investigating the potential non-linear effect exerted by the situation on the oil market on the real exchange rate - terms of trade nexus. To this end, we rely on the panel smooth transition regression methodology to estimate the adjustment process of the real effective exchange rate to its equilibrium value depending on the volatility on the oil market. Considering a panel of 52 commodity exporters and 17 oil exporters over the 1980-2012 period, our findings show that while exchange rates are mainly driven by fundamentals in the low-volatility regime, they are mostly sensitive to changes in terms of trade when oil price variations exceed a certain threshold. The commodity-currency property is thus at play in the short run only for important variations in the oil price.
Classification-JEL
C23 ; F31; Q43
Mot(s) clé(s)
commodity currencies, oil price, non-linearity
Fichier

2014-4 "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone"

Carl Grekou

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Résumé
In this paper, we revisit the link between currency misalignments and economic growth by taking into account the foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics (except French Franc and euro) for the CFA zone countries over the period 1985-2011. Relying on a BEER approach and using panel cointegration techniques, we first derive currency misalignments. We then estimate a panel smooth transition growth equation that allows us to observe nonlinear impacts of misalignments on both economic growth and foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics. We find that the nonlinear impact of currency misalignments on growth through the competitiveness channel is mitigated by the foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics through a valuation effect.
Classification-JEL
C33, E42, F3, F43
Mot(s) clé(s)
Currency misalignments, CFA zone, debt, economic growth, panel smooth transition regression
Fichier

2014-5 "How macroeconomic imbalances interact? Evidence from a panel VAR analysis"

Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon

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Résumé
This paper aims at investigating the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely current-account discrepancies (external imbalances), output gaps (internal imbalances), and exchange-rate misalignments. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR model for a sample of 22 industrialized countries over the 1980-2011 period. Our findings show that macroeconomic imbalances strongly interact through a causal relationship. We evidence that if current-account disequilibria threaten the stability of the global economy, their origin can be found in internal imbalances and exchange-rate misalignments: positive output-gap shocks as well as currency overvaluation deepen current-account deficits. In addition, while variations in external imbalances mainly result from exchange-rate misalignments in the euro area, they are mostly explained by output gaps for non-eurozone members.
Classification-JEL
F32, F31, C33
Mot(s) clé(s)
global imbalances, current account, output gap, exchange-rate misalignments,panel VAR
Fichier

2014-6 "A multi-country DSGE model with incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through: application for the Euro area"

Tovonony Razafindrabe

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Résumé
This paper develops an estimated multi-country open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) for the Euro-area. It is designed to model global international linkages and to assess international transmission of shocks under an endogenous framework and incomplete ERPT assumption. On the one hand, we relax the small open economy framework (SOEF) but derive a canonical representation of the equilibrium conditions to maintain analytical tractability of the complex international transmission mechanism underlying the model. Namely, the model considers economies of different size that are open and endogenously related. On the other hand, in order to take into account international linkages, possible cointegration relationships within domestic variables and between domestic and foreign variables, and the role of common unobserved and observed global factors such as the oil price, we use the Global VAR model to estimate the steady state of observed endogenous variables of the multi-country DSGE model. Namely, steady states are computed as long-horizon forecasts from a reduced-form cointegrating GVAR model. ERPT analysis conducted from the estimated multi-country DSGE model for the Euro-area in relation with its …ve main trade partners which are the United Kingdom, the United States, China, Japan and Switzerland yields the following results. First, exchange rate volatility contributes to a large part of import price inflation variation of the Euro-area in contrast to foreign mark-up shocks. Second, deviation from inflation objective of the foreign trade partners contributes to another source of the Euro-area import price variability. Third, nominal rigidity induces a persistent but a lower impact of the exchange rate changes on import inflation.
Classification-JEL
Pass-through, multi-country DSGE, Bayesian estimation, monetary policy
Mot(s) clé(s)
F31, F41, E52, C11
Fichier

2014-7 "De l’aléa moral du patient aux inégalités d’accès aux soins"

Philippe Batifoulier

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Résumé
La théorie de l’aléa moral du patient a justifié l’existence d’un partage des coûts (ticket modérateur, forfait, franchise) de façon à réduire les dépenses sans détériorer l’état de santé. Cette politique a été largement adoptée par les politiques de santé et s’est durcie avec le temps. Cet article montre que le background théorique et empirique de cette conception est largement déficient et conduit à des effets pervers en accroissant les inégalités tout en activant des dépenses nouvelles.
Classification-JEL
I13, I14, I18, B52
Mot(s) clé(s)
Aléa moral du patient, partage des coûts, accès aux soins, inégalités, approche institutionnaliste
Fichier

2014-8 "On the Political Economy of Public Safety Investments"

Tim Friehe, Eric Langlais

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Résumé
This paper explores the interaction of private precaution and public safety investments when the latter are determined in a political process. We distinguish the scenarios
in which the median victim infuences public safety from the one in which the injurer lobbies the public agent, and analyze both negligence and strict liability with a defense of contributory negligence. We establish that the levels of injurer and victim care are always socially optimal for the equilibrium level of public safety. However, the equilibrium level of public safety differs from its fi…rst-best level and drastically depends on both the specifi…cs of the political process and the liability rule applied. This entails that the level of social costs is critically determined by the choice between liability rules for a given political process.
Classification-JEL
K 13, D 72
Mot(s) clé(s)
liability law, care levels, public safety, political economy, median voter,firm lobbying
Fichier

2014-9 "The economic behaviour of doctors: medical altruism without an ethic?"

Philippe Batifoulier, Nicolas Da Silva

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Résumé
Health economics appears to have difficulty in taking medical ethics into consideration because of the standard figure of homo economicus. In main stream economics, the ethical attitude of a physician is then formalized in terms of “medical altruism”. This paper seeks to highlight the advantages and the contradictions of this medical altruism. We can identify several levels of problems raised by this medical altruism: theoretical paradoxes and economic policy problems for the regulator. The interest of the concept of medical altruism is to save or improve the economic theory with a more realistic assumption. However, if this assumption is more realistic, it induces paradoxes of economic theory. The misfortune for economists is that this theoretical inconstancy is lined with economic policy issues. These remain unresolved and we do not know what to do. In conclusion, we think that it becomes crucial to consider seriously medical ethics.
Classification-JEL
B41;I10; I18
Mot(s) clé(s)
healthcare; altruism, professional ethics; instrumental rationality; intrinsic motivation
Fichier

2014-10 "Disequilibrium, reproduction and money: a Classical approach"

Carlo Benetti, Christian Bidard, Edith Klimovsky, Antoine Rebeyrol

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Résumé
We consider a bisector reproduction model in which money is introduced as a pure means of exchange issued by a bank at the producers' requests. Each capitalist aims at maximising accumulation in his own sector. Their plans are based on available quantities and expected prices. Effective prices are determined by a market-clearing mechanism. Temporary disequilibria occur in both physical and monetary terms. The settlement of the monetary balances is operated by means of a transfer of capital goods. Final allocations and effective productions are thus determined. The dynamics of the economy are those of a sequence of temporary disequilibria and let appear several possibilities (local or global stability, cycles) depending on the values of the parameters.
Classification-JEL
E11, E30, E32, O41
Mot(s) clé(s)
Classical Reproduction, Monetary prices, Disequilibrium, Growth, Cycle
Fichier

2014-11 "Imperfect competition, government spending and estimated markup"

Ali Abcha

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Résumé
This paper is an empirical study that aims at explaining economic fluctuations and behavior mark-up. Inspired by the method of Roeger (1995), we perform a study of four OECD countries (Denmark, Finland, Italy and the United States) for 17 manufacturing industries covering the period 1986-2008. This study provides a comparison between our estimates of mark-up and other observations on mark-up pricing (Oliveira, Scarpetta and Pilat (1996), Roger (1995) and Rotemberg and Woodford (1992)). It also provides an interpretation of the estimated markups that depend on the type of market structure. An application of a VAR model is used to examine the relationship between imperfect competition and the effects fiscal policy on output and mark-up, based on the method of Rotemberg and Woodford (1999).
Classification-JEL
E3, E62
Mot(s) clé(s)
Mark-up, Imperfect competition, Fiscal Policy
Fichier

2014-12 "The Impact of Internal Migration on Local Labour Markets in Thailand"

Eliane El Badaoui, Eric Strobl, Frank Walsh

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Résumé
We estimate the impact of internal migration on local labour markets in Thailand. Using an instrumental variable approach based on weather and distance we estimate
an exogenous measure of the net migration in ow into each region. Our results show that instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of net inward migration is crucial to
the analysis. The results suggest substantial adjustments in hours worked and weekly wages in response to short term changes in labour supply for low skilled males. We
find no effect on high skilled workers. A theoretical section shows that a reduction in hours per worker in response to an increase in inward migration is consistent with the
predictions of a standard search model.
Classification-JEL
O15, J10
Mot(s) clé(s)
Internal migration, Labour markets, Thailand
Fichier

2014-13 "Looking at the other side of carry trades: Are there any safe haven currencies?"

Virginie Coudert, Cyriac Guillaumin, Hélène Raymond

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Résumé
Nous définissons les monnaies refuges comme celles capables de fournir des excès de rendements positifs durant les crises et nous montrons qu’elles ont des primes de risque négatives à long terme. Nous tentons de les identifier empiriquement en considérant un échantillon de 26 monnaies émises par des pays avancés ou émergents sur une période allant de 1999 à 2013. Premièrement, nous identifions les monnaies ayant des excès de rendements moyens ex post négatifs sur longue période et positifs durant les crises ; seuls le yen et le dollar remplissent ces conditions. Deuxièmement, nous estimons par une régression à transition douce (STR) l’équation de Fama dans laquelle nous ajoutons le VIX comme variable explicative et variable de transition de façon à saisir la réponse des taux de change au cours du cycle financier. Les résultats montrent que le dollar et le yen sont aussi les seuls candidats pour être des monnaies refuges. En dépit de son appréciation tendancielle sur le long terme, le franc suisse ne remplit pas ce rôle car il a tendance à suivre le mouvement baissier de l’euro pendant les crises récentes.
Classification-JEL
C32, G11, G15
Mot(s) clé(s)
trades; safe haven currencies; financial cycle
Fichier

2014-14 "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies"

Audrey Allegret, Jean-Pierre Allegret, Valérie Mignon

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Résumé
The aim of this paper is to investigate oil price shocks' effects and their associated transmission channels on global imbalances. To this end, we rely on a Global VAR approach that allows us to account for trade and Financial interdependencies between countries. Considering a sample of 30 oil-exporting and importing economies over the 1980-2011 period, we show that the nature of the shock-demand-driven or supply-driven-matters in understanding the effects of oil price shocks on global imbalances. In addition, we evidence that the main adjustment mechanism to oil shocks is based on the trade channel, the valuation channel being at play only on the short run..
Classification-JEL
C32, F32, Q43
Mot(s) clé(s)
oil prices, global imbalances, global VAR
Fichier

2014-15 "Bank Failures and the Source of Strength Doctrine"

Vincent Bouvatier, Michael Brei, Xi Yang

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Résumé
This paper examines the determinants of bank failures in the US banking system during the recent financial crisis. The analysis employs a dataset on the financial statements of FDIC-insured commercial banks and their bank holding companies, along with information on bank failures, mergers, and acquisitions. The econometric evidence suggests that failed banks have been characterized by significantly higher loan growth rates, well ahead of the financial crisis, coupled with higher exposures to the mortgage market segment and to funding in the form of brokered deposits. We also find evidence that commercial banks have been less likely to fail, when they belonged to well-capitalized and profitable bank holding companies with lower exposures to short-term funding. Our results provide empirical support for the recent modifications in bank regulation and supervision which introduce countercyclical components for capital buffers and a more comprehensive supervision of consolidated banking groups
Classification-JEL
G21; E58; G32
Mot(s) clé(s)
financial crises, bank failures, bank regulation
Fichier

2014-16 "Towards a clean vehicle fleet: from households’ valuation of fuel efficiency to policy implications"

Maxime Le Roy, Bénédicte Meurisse

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Résumé
Le comportement des ménages au regard de l’efficacité énergétique de leur véhicule est examiné dans ce papier. Nous proposons d’approcher le Consentement à Payer (CAP) pour une meilleure efficacité énergétique du véhicule par la variation de revenu compensatoire. Plus précisément, nous distinguons le consentement à payer ou à recevoir (CAR) pour l’achat d’un véhicule moins consommateur de carburant du CAP théorique pour une réduction de la consommation de carburant sans devoir changer de véhicule. Puis, en assumant que le ménage est contraint de changer de véhicule, nous estimons le CAP pour l’achat du véhicule le plus efficient. Les impacts d’une taxe sur le carburant et/ou d’un système de bonus-malus sur le CAP pour l’achat du véhicule le plus efficient et sur les distances parcourues en véhicule particulier sont également discutés. Nous trouvons que le CAP pour l’achat du véhicule le plus efficient diminue avec l’instauration de la taxe. Au contraire, l’instauration d’un système de bonus-malus conduit à une hausse du CAP pour l’achat du véhicule le plus efficient. Toutefois, diminuer le prix de marché d’un véhicule (i.e. avec un bonus) augmente le risque d’effet rebond. Cependant, une taxe sur le carburant, pourvu qu’elle soit suffisamment élevée, permet d’annuler l’effet rebond.
Classification-JEL
D11, Q58
Mot(s) clé(s)
efficacité énergétique, consentement à payer, taxe sur le carburant, bonus-malus, effet rebond.
Fichier

2014-17 "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data"

Georges Prat, Remzi Uctum

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Résumé
En exploitant les données d’enquête de Consensus Economics sur les anticipations des taux de change JPY/USD et GBP/USD à 3 et à 12 mois sur la période Novembre 1989 – Décembre 2012, nous montrons que les anticipations ne sont pas rationnelles ni n’exhibent un processus d’apprentissage vers la rationalité. Notre approche est conforme à la théorie des anticipations économiquement rationnelles (Feige and Pearce, 1976) qui stipule que les coûts informationnels et l’aversion des agents à commettre des erreurs de prévision déterminent les quantités optimales d’information sur lesquelles ils fondent leurs anticipations. Du fait de la variabilité temporelle des ratios coût/aversion, nous proposons une représentation au niveau agrégé des anticipations par une combinaison linéaire des processus traditionnels extrapolatif,
adaptatif et régressif, augmentée d’une composante de marché à terme, dont les paramètres peuvent changer au cours du temps. Ce modèle mixte d’anticipation avec hétérogénéité variable est validé par nos résultats d’estimation par le filtrage de Kalman pour les deux monnaies et les deux horizons considérés. Bien que le comportement chartiste, fondé sur les composantes extrapolative et adaptative, domine le comportement fondamentaliste, décrit par les composantes régressive et de marché à terme, l’importance relative des fondamentalistes (chartistes) augmente (diminue) avec l’horizon.
Classification-JEL
D84, F31, G14
Mot(s) clé(s)
expectation formation, exchange rates, dynamic heterogeneity, survey data.
Fichier

2014-18 "A Nonparametric Test for Granger-causality in Distribution with Application to Financial Contagion"

Bertrand Candelon, Sessi Tokpavi

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Résumé
This paper introduces a kernel-based nonparametric inferential procedure to test for Granger-causality in distribution. This test is a multivariate extension of the kernel-based Granger-causality test in tail-event introduced by Hong et al. (2009) and hence shares its main advantage, by checking a large number of lags with higher order lags discounted. Besides, our test is highly exible as it can be used to check for Granger-causality in specific regions on the distribution supports, like the center or the tails. We prove that it converges asymptotically to a standard Gaussian distribution under the null hypothesis and thus it is free of parameter estimation uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the excellent small sample size and power properties of the test. This new test is applied for a set of European stock markets in order to analyse the spill-overs during the recent European crisis and to distinguish contagion from
interdependence effect.
Classification-JEL
C14, C22, G10
Mot(s) clé(s)
Granger-causality, Distribution, Tails, Kernel-based test, Financial Spill-over
Fichier

2014-19 "Entrepreneurs and wage-earners: a monetary approach"

Jean Cartelier

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Résumé
The purpose of the paper is to offer a logical genesis of the differenciation of agents in two classes: capitalist entrepreneurs and wage-earners. The model presented here does not follow the Classical (or Marxian) tradition (where the two opposed classes are the straight consequence of the concentration of the means of production in the hands of a limited fraction of people). It does not follow mainstream economists either (no difference according to general competitive equilibrium or a difference taken as given in labour economics in general). Models belonging to those traditions fail to reproduce a major stylised fact: wage-earners cannot be distinguished from entrepreneurs when they are in the market for commodities but they radically differ in the 'market for labour' or in production (wage-earners do not produce for their own account but for that of entrepreneurs who get pro…ts, not wages). Modern tentatives to deal with the differenciation of agents (Matsuyama for instance) explain it by a progrssive differenciation of the level of wealth up to a threshold which makes some agents able to accumulate and others not. We propose a different view based on the process of issuance of money. If a fraction of agents have not a direct access to that process they cannot act in the market for their own account. The alternatives they have are limited to autarky or to work for the account of those who have additional alternatives due to their direct access to money (to be independent producers or entrepreneurs hiring wage-earners). The model makes explicit the necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an E-equilibrium in which co-exist heterogeneous agents (entrepreneurs and wage-earners) starting from a population homogeneous except for bank rationing. These reasonable conditions are: an efficient monetary system, a sufficient gap between productivity of production in mass compared to other types and a possibility to induce wage-earners to work signi…ficantly more than they would as free producers. A non-Marxian notion of exploitation is suggested to conclude.
Classification-JEL
A10, B50, J01
Mot(s) clé(s)
entrepreneurs, wage-earners.
Fichier

2014-20 "On the impact of macroeconomic news surprises on Treasury-bond yields"

Nicolas Boitout, Imane El Ouadghiri, Valérie Mignon

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Résumé
This paper investigates the impact of surprises associated with monthly macroeconomic news releases on Treasury-bond yields, by paying particular attention to the moment at which the information is published in the month. Implementing an event study on intraday data, we show that (i) the main bond market movers are based on economic activity and in ation indicators, (ii) long-maturity bonds are slightly more impacted by surprises than short-maturity ones, and (iii) the bond market is more sensitive to bad news than to good announcements. Finally, we evidence an empirical monotonic relationship between the surprises' impact and their corresponding news' publication date and/or their sign.
Classification-JEL
G14, G12, E44, C22
Mot(s) clé(s)
bond market, event study, macroeconomic news.
Fichier

2014-21 "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence"

Amélie Charles, Olivier Darné, Laurent Ferrara

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Résumé
After years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties, well documented and referred to as the Great Moderation period in the literature, the 2008-2009 worldwide recession adversely impacted output levels in most of advanced countries. This Great Recession period was characterized by a sharp apparent increase in output volatility. In this paper we evaluate whether this sudden event is likely to be temporary. Whether or not this new volatility regime is likely to persist would have strong macroeconomic effects, especially on business cycles. Based on break detection methods applied to a set of advanced countries, our empirical results do not give evidence to the end of the Great Moderation period but rather that the Great Recession is characterized by a dramatic temporary effect on the output growth but not on its volatility. In addition, we show that neglecting those breaks both in mean and in variance can have large effects on output volatility modelling. Last we empirically show that observed breaks during the Great Recession are to some extent related to uncertainty measures.
Classification-JEL
E32; C22
Mot(s) clé(s)
Great Recession; Great Moderation; breaks; volatility; uncertainty
Fichier

2014-22 "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries"

Blaise Gnimassoun

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Résumé
One of the major current concerns of economic policy in developing countries is the choice of the appropriate exchange rate regime to consolidate and accelerate the pace of economic growth. This paper aims to investigate whether the choice of a country’s exchange rate regime may affect current account imbalances for sub-Saharan African economies. To this end, we first use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to address concerns about model uncertainty and identify the key determinants (fundamentals) of external balances. Then, estimating current account imbalances over the 1980-2012 period, we show that flexible exchange rate regimes are more effective in preventing such disequilibria. Consequently, candidates for membership of monetary unions should discuss widely the possible adjustment mechanisms before forming such unions; one potential measure being the sharing of external risks at regional level
Classification-JEL
F32, F33, C11
Mot(s) clé(s)
Current account imbalances, Exchange rate regime, Bayesian model averaging, Sub-Saharan Africa.
Fichier

2014-23 "Net flows to emerging markets’ funds and the U.S. monetary policy after the subprime crisis"

Henri Audigé

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Résumé
In this paper, we examine the determinants of global investors’ net flows to investment bond funds dedicated to emerging economies and analyze the effects of the U.S. expansionary monetary policy on these flows from 2010 to 2013. We particularly focus on investors’ behavior vis-à-vis emerging markets local and foreign currency bond funds. Our main findings confirm the significant external impact of U.S. monetary policy decisions – and especially tapering announcements – on net flows to foreign currency bond funds. Our results highlight the higher sensitivity of EMEs foreign currency bond markets to U.S monetary shocks and suggest possible transmission effects from developed to emerging bond markets.
Classification-JEL
E44, G23, F32
Mot(s) clé(s)
Emerging market economies, capital flows, bond markets, shocks transmission, institutional investors, unconventional U.S. monetary policy.
Fichier

2014-24 "The impact of the global and eurozone crises on European banks stocks Some evidence of shift contagion"

Jean-Pierre Allegret, Hélène Raymond, Houda Rharrabti

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Résumé
This paper analyzes the influence of successive crises, including the recent European sovereign debt crisis, on banks’ equity returns for 11 countries. Our data span the period December 14th 2007-March 8th 2013 that encompasses different episodes of economic and financial turmoil since the collapse of the subprime credit market. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, we use an explicit multifactor model of equity returns extended with a sovereign risk factor. Second, we adopt a Smooth Transition Regression(STR) framework that allows for an endogenous definition of crisis periods and captures the changes in parameters associated with shift contagion. We find that contagion from the European sovereign debt crisis to banks’ equity returns has been confined to eurozone banks, whereas U.S. banks’ equity returns were unharmed by its direct impact and may even have benefited from a kind of flight to quality effect. Besides, across banks from the euro area, German financial institutions have not been completely spared by the eurozone debt crisis, though they have been relatively less affected.
Classification-JEL
E6 F3 G2
Mot(s) clé(s)
Smooth Transition Regression model, European sovereign debt crisis, Banks’ equity returns, Contagion, Interdependence.
Fichier

2014-25 "Contribution of ICT on Labor Market Polarization: an Evolutionary Approach"

Benjamin David

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Résumé
This paper analyses the role of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on the job market polarization. We rely on an evolutionary framework by applying a “distance from mean approach”. Using data for 8 industrialized economies, we account for probable heterogeneous and timevarying effects through the estimation of a semiparametric smooth coefficient model. Our results show a significant contribution of ICT on polarization dynamics with some differences between countries and industries. We also find evidence that diffusion of ICT is initially accompanied by a Skill Bias Technological Change (SBTC), then contributing to job market polarization. Finally, our findings highlight a progressive weakening of the positive link between ICT diffusion and the increasing demand for high-skilled workers over time.
Classification-JEL
C14, E11, J21, O33
Mot(s) clé(s)
ICT, Evolutionary economics, Polarization of labor market, Semiparametric Smooth Coefficient Model
Fichier

2014-26 "Default Predictors in Credit Scoring - Evidence from France’s Retail Banking Institution"

Ha Thu Nguyen

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Résumé
The aim of this paper is to present the set-up of a behavioral credit-scoring model and to estimate such a model using the auto loan data set of one of the largest multinational financial institutions based in France. We rely on a logistic regression approach, which is commonly used in credit scoring, to construct a behavioral scorecard. A detailed description of the model building process is provided, as are discussions about specific modeling issues. The paper then uses a number of quantitative criteria to identify the model best suited to modeling. Finally, it is demonstrated that such model possesses the desirable characteristics of a scorecard.
Classification-JEL
G3, C51, C52
Mot(s) clé(s)
Auto Loans, Credit Risk, Credit Scoring, Logistic Regression.
Fichier

2014-27 "The Impact of the French Securities Transaction Tax on Market Liquidity and Volatility"

Gunther Capelle-Blancard, Olena Havrylchyk

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Résumé
In this paper, we assess the impact of the securities transaction tax (STT) introduced in France in 2012 on market liquidity and volatility. To identify causality, we rely on the unique design of this tax that is imposed only on large French firms, all listed on Euronext. This provides two reliable control groups (smaller French firms and foreign firms also listed on Euronext) and allows using difference-in-difference methodology to isolate the impact of the tax from other economic changes occurring simultaneously. We find that the STT has reduced trading volume, but we find no effect on theoretically based measures of liquidity, such as price impact, and no significant effect on volatility. The results are robust if we rely on different control groups (German stocks included in DAX and MDAX), analyze dynamic effects or construct a control group by propensity score matching.
Classification-JEL
G21, H25
Mot(s) clé(s)
Financial transaction tax, Securities transaction tax, Tobin tax, Volatility, Liquidity, Euronext
Fichier

2014-28 "Child Mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Why Public Health Spending Matters"

Carl Grekou, Romain Perez

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Résumé
Since 2000, child mortality has dramatically decreased in Africa. Based on an econometrical analysis over 45 sub-Saharan African countries, this paper analyses the determinants of such evolution, and shows that urbanization, sanitation improvement and GDP growth per capita played a critical role in this overall improvement over 2000-2011. The increase in public health expenditures proved to be also decisive, though the elasticity with mortality rate is much weaker. Reaching the Abuja target of 15% of public health expenditure in total public expenditures would have decreased the under-5 child mortality rate by 9% over 2001-2011. It could further reduce this rate by 14% over 2012-2021, and allow Africa to save 19.8 million of children lives. It would also help the region to achieve the Millennium Development Goal on child mortality (reduce by two thirds under-5 child mortality over 1990-2015) by 2022-23, while it would not be reached before 2027 otherwise, according to our estimates.
Classification-JEL
H51, I12, I18, O15
Mot(s) clé(s)
Millennium Development Goals, MDGs, Under-5 mortality rate, sub-Saharan Africa, Public expenditure on health.
Fichier

2014-29 "Enforcement vs Deterrence in Merger Control: Can Remedies Lead to Lower Welfare?"

Andreea Cosnita-Langlais, Lars Sørgard

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Résumé
This paper deals with the enforcement of merger policy, and aims to identify situations where the introduction of remedies can lead to a lower welfare. For this we study how merger remedies affect the deterrence accomplished by controlling mergers, and determine the optimal frequency of investigations launched by the agency. We find that when conditional approvals are possible, it may be harder to deter the most welfare-detrimental mergers, and the agency might have to investigate mergers more often. The resulting welfare from merger control can indeed be lower than without remedies.
Classification-JEL
K21, L41
Mot(s) clé(s)
merger control, merger remedies, enforcement, deterrence.
Fichier

2014-30 "To be a Mother, or not to be? Career and Wage Ladder in Italy and the UK"

Eliane El Badaoui, Eleonora Matteazzi

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Résumé
This paper examines the extent to which motherhood affects women's career accomplishments and wages in Italy and the UK. Using the EU-SILC 2009 data, a decomposition of the motherhood wage gap is implemented after accounting for double selection in labor market participation and motherhood. We find evidence of a negative correlation between labor market and fertility decisions. The results show that motherhood has no adverse effects on women's career path in Italy, and that job segregation explains most of the motherhood wage gap in the UK. Empirical findings suggest that the timing of motherhood and job continuity affect significantly the female wage profile.
Classification-JEL
C34, J21, J24, J31.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Motherhood, Labor market participation, Wage gap, Career.
Fichier

2014-31 "La qualité des soins est-elle soluble dans la quantification ? Une critique du paiement à la performance médicale"

Nicolas Da Silva

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Résumé
L’une des réponses de la politique publique au défi de l’amélioration de la qualité des soins est la mise en place de mécanismes de paiement à la performance qui incite le médecin à atteindre des objectifs chiffrées de qualité. L’hypothèse implicite est que la qualité des soins est soluble dans la quantité. Les normes quantifiées sensées traduire la qualité des soins proviennent des résultats de l’Evidence Based Medicine (EBM) et de sa méthode de recherche principale : l’essai clinique randomisé. Nous développons dans cet exposé deux critiques épistémologiques majeures sur cette utilisation de l’EBM. D’une part, l’épistémologie implicite des objets statistiques qui sous-tend cette méthode est problématique : la maladie n’est pas phénomène indépendant du malade et l’essai clinique randomisé n’est pas une méthode neutre et impartiale. D’autre part, il est également douteux de considérer le soin comme un bien de consommation infiniment reproductible : le service de soin n’est pas un produit.
Classification-JEL
I10, I12, I18, B41
Mot(s) clé(s)
paiement à la performance – essai clinique randomisé – médecine fondée sur les preuves – épistémologie économique.
Fichier

2014-32 "Promoting innovation on the seed market and biodiversity: the role of IPRs and commercialisation rules"

Marc Baudry, Adrien Hervouet

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Résumé
This article deals with the impact of legislation in the seed sector on incentives for variety creation. Two categories of rules interact. The first category consists in intellectual property rights and is intended to address a problem of sequential innovation and R&D investments by the private sector. The second category concerns commercial rules that are intended to correct a problem of adverse selection on the seed market. We propose a dynamic model of market equilibrium with vertical product differentiation that enables us to take into account the economic consequences of imposing either Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBRs) or patents as IPRs. We simultaneously examine two kinds of commercial legislation: compulsory registration in a catalogue and minimum standards for commercialisation. Analytical results are completed by numerical simulations. The main result is that the combination between minimum standards and PBRs provides higher incentives for sequential innovation and may be preferred by a public regulator to maximise the expected and discounted total surplus when sunk investment costs are low or when they are medium and the probability of R&D success is sufficiently high. This solution differs from the combination of IPRs and commercialisation rules used in both the US and Europe. Otherwise, PBRs have to be replaced by patents, which yields a configuration close to that observed in the US. The catalogue commercialisation rule is seldom preferred to minimum standards, so that the combination of IPRs and commercialisation rules that prevails in Europe is not supported by our model.
Classification-JEL
D43, D82, K11, L13, Q12.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Intellectual Property Rights, Plant Breeders’ Rights, Catalogue, Product differentiation, Asymmetric information, Biodiversity.
Fichier

2014-33 "Impacts of Immigration on Aging Welfare-State An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France"

Xavier Chojnicki, Lionel Ragot

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Résumé
Immigration is often seen as an instrument of adaptation for aging countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the aging population in France. Four variants, compared to a baseline scenario based on oficial projections, are simulated with the aim to quantify the immigration effects on the French social protection finances. The first variant assesses the economic effects of immigration in France as projected into official forecasts. The three other variants are built on the same more ambitious annual flows of immigrants (corresponding to net migration that have characterized the second great wave of immigration in France in the twentieth century). These three variants only distinguish in terms of the skill structure of new migrants. We show that the age and skill structure of immigrants are the key feature that mainly determine the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effcts are all the more positive in the short-medium term that the migration policy is selective (in favor of more skilled workers). In the long term, beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But the financial gains from more consequent migration flows are relatively moderated in comparison of demographic changes implied.
Classification-JEL
C68, D58, E60, H55, H68, J61.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Migration, AGEM, Overlapping generations, Aging, Public finance, Social protection.
Fichier

2014-34 "Pollution effects on labor supply and growth"

Stefano Bosi, David Desmarchelier, Lionel Ragot

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Résumé
Some recent empirical contributions have pointed out a significant negative impact of pollution on labor supply. These impacts have been largely ignored in the theoretical literature, which, instead, focused on the case of pollution effects on consumption demand. In this paper, we study the short and long-run effects of pollution in a Ramsey model where pollution and labor supply are nonseparable arguments in households’ preferences. We determine sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of a longterm equilibrium and we show how large (negative) effects of pollution on labor supply may promotes macroeconomic volatility (deterministic cycles near the steady state) through a flip bifurcation.
Classification-JEL
E32, O44.
Mot(s) clé(s)
pollution, endogenous labor supply, Ramsey model.
Fichier

2014-35 "Robust Portfolio Protection: A Scenarios-Based Approach"

Khaled Guesmi, Selim Mankai

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Résumé
This paper constructs a robust optimization framework of the uncertain worst-case return. The model defines an adjustable discrete uncertainty set which controls the conservatism of the optimal asset allocation. Without prior assumptions on the data generating process, the model also develops an a priori probabilistic guarantee of the robust solution. Unlike previous measures that depend solely on the uncertainty model, the new measure is also sensitive to asset allocation and investment horizon. We provide an application of international stock indexes portfolio protection during the 2008 financial crisis. Computational experiments and ex-post analysis provide evidence for the effectiveness of our model.
Classification-JEL
C14, D81, G11, G15.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Portfolio protection, Robust optimization, Multivariate tail dependence, Nonparametric predictive inference.
Fichier

2014-36 "Does nominal rigidity mislead our perception of the exchange rate pass-through?"

Tovonony Razafindrabe, Olivier de Bandt

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Résumé
Relying on a novel dataset of detailed micro-data on import prices, this paper explores the close link that exists between nominal import price rigidity and the extent of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). We show that previous evidence in favor of incomplete and low value of ERPT in the empirical literature may be explained by two factors: the relative importance of small variations in the exchange rate and, mainly, nominal rigidity. Once nominal rigidity is taken into account, we …nd for French manufacturers that ERPT may be incomplete in the short run, but with relatively high value, and complete in the long run. In addition, assessing non-linearity and asymmetry issues, we provide evidence that the shape of the import price reaction function is distorted by the presence of nominal rigidity. Indeed, the linearity assumption is veri…ed once nominal rigidity is taken into account. However, in the case where it is rejected, the import price reaction function is concave rather than convex, indicating that …rms aim at protecting market shares. As a consequence, the common belief that "prices rise faster than they fall" is the results of nominal import price rigidity as far as ERPT is concerned.
Classification-JEL
F31, E31, C23
Mot(s) clé(s)
Exchange rate pass-through, nominal rigidity, import price
Fichier

2014-37 "The ambiguous role of remittances in West African countries facing climate variability"

Cécile Couharde, Rémi Generoso

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Résumé
We investigate the consequences of remittances inflows on macroeconomic performance of West African countries over the 1985 - 2007 period. We take into account the exposition of those countries to climate variability by estimating a PCHVAR model which allows heterogeneity between countries’ responses to rainfall shocks. Our results show that the impact of remittances on macroeconomic performances is highly sensitive to those shocks. In particular, when drought conditions prevail, remittances do not longer exert any short-term spillover effects on growth and may increase a situation of economic dependence, by spurring agricultural imports.
Classification-JEL
C33; F24; O11
Mot(s) clé(s)
Climate variability; Remittances; PCHVAR model; West Africa
Fichier

2014-38 "The increasing interest of Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Funds for Europe: presenting original data"

Françoise Hay, Christian Milelli

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Résumé
The paper examines the rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) as a new source of financing investment worldwide and, more specifically, tries to get a better understanding of SWFs from Middle East which accounted in 2013 for 35 percent of overall assets managed by them, with the bulk of them focused on Developed countries, and in particular on Europe. The paper is descriptive and informative. It is based on an original database set up from different sources of information. The idea is to advance the main characteristics of these new investors, and also to assess the primary consequences of their operations on European economies. The role of the states as important arbiters of market economies is emphasized as well as the shift of power in favor of the emerging economies.
Classification-JEL
F210, G230
Mot(s) clé(s)
Sovereign Wealth Fund, Middle East, Europe
Fichier

2014-39 "Banking Union: Time Is Not On Our Side"

Adrien Béranger, Jézabel Couppey Soubeyran, Laurence Scialom

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Résumé
This paper reviews the various mechanisms and rules that has been proposed to build a banking union in Europe. We argue that the banking union is a promising solution to the Eurozone crisis because it completes the unification of the Euro currency, forms a solution to both the financial and monetary fragmentation of the Euro area financial markets and helps breaking the vicious circle created by domestic banking system impairments and the sovereign debt crisis. We underline not only the shortcomings and hurdles to reach a fully-fledged banking union, and the hazards created by the inconsistencies between their phasing-in in the sequential schedule decided by states. To reduce the loopholes induced by the sequential approach, we propose to implement a rule of shared-bailout during the transition period that consist in a loss-sharing rule among countries hosting an entity of a bank group and indicted in the living wills of the systemic banking companies
Classification-JEL
G21, G28, H12, E58
Mot(s) clé(s)
Eurozone, banking union, bank supervision, resolution
Fichier

2014-40 "A post-Paretian concept of optimality: the “Conditional Agreement Point”"

Fabrice Tricou

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Résumé
This paper introduces and develops the concept of “conditional agreement point”,defined as the dominating issue (hard optimality) within a certain restricted subset of the set of feasible issues (partial optimality). Such a concept associates individualistic independence (via the operation of individual preferences) and humanistic autonomy (via the social choice of the determined subset). As the “conditional agreement point” assumes a dualistic conception of human beings as self-interest followers and as rule makers, it acknowledges mixed or complex types of behavior and it supports some syntheses between efficiency and justice. Precisely, the notion of CAP permits the reconsideration of classical coordination or cooperation problems such as the bilateral exchange.
Classification-JEL
D60, D63, D50, C70.
Mot(s) clé(s)
efficiency and justice; independence and autonomy; bilateral exchange.
Fichier

2014-41 "On patent strength, litigation costs, and patent disputes under alternative damage rules"

Bertrand Chopard, Thomas Cortade, Eric Langlais

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Résumé
This paper analyzes the effects of two damage rules (Lost Profi…t vs Unjust Enrichment) mainly used by Courts in patent litigations. In our model, the Infringer either is a mere imitator of the Patentee or introduces incremental innovations, and litigation costs are private information such that a pretrial settlement may be better for both litigants. We show that the Unjust Enrichment rule yields less trials than the Lost Pro…fit one. But regarding three main objectives, Patentee's protection, incentives to invest in R&D, and social welfare maximization,we …find that no rule is better than the other generally speaking. Our model also allows to emphasize how the combination between the size of litigation costs, the negotiation gains and the IPR strength, shapes the incentives to enforce as well infringe a IPR, although in a way specifi…c to each rule.
Classification-JEL
03, L1, L4, D8, K2, K4.
Mot(s) clé(s)
intellectual property, probabilistic patents, patent litigations, incremental innovations, pretrial negotiations, legal costs, imperfect competition.
Fichier

2014-42 "The Ways of Selecting Applicants Diversity Speaks in Favour of Diversity"

Emmanuelle Marchal, Guillemette de Larquier

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Résumé
This article addresses diversity in hiring processes, its reasons and its consequences. Using the French OFER survey on the hiring practices of 3,584 firms in 2005, we investigate how firms organise the selection of job applicants and analyse the outcome of this selection in regard to the profiles of successful applicants. The data analysis reveals four types of screening processes: an informal process (streamlined) and three formalised processes (written-based, testing, and professionalised). The use of a type of screening process depends on the characteristics of the establishments and occupations and is associated with the recruitment channel. Finally, logit regressions show that each recruitment channel and each type of screening process favours and penalises different categories of applicants (e.g., women, unemployed or inactive individuals or individuals with no diploma).
Classification-JEL
J01, M5, Z1.
Mot(s) clé(s)
hiring process, screening methods, recruitment channels, diversity.
Fichier

2014-43 "Does the Appeals Process Lower the Occurrence of Legal Errors?"

Bertrand Chopard, Edwige Marion, Ludivine Roussey

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Résumé
This paper challenges the commonly held idea that the appeals process lowers the occurrence of legal errors. We show that, even if incorporating the right to bring an appeal in criminal adjudication directly offers the opportunity to correct mistakes made at trial, the …final impact on the appeals process on the accuracy of judicial decisions is ambiguous because of its effect through trial court decision-makers' effort and crime deterrence. We find out that according to (i) whether trial court decision-makers are rather reputation-concerned or socially-motivated, (ii) the distribution of the population of potential offenders and (iii) the marginal effect of decision-makers' effort on the probability of wrongful conviction compared wrongful acquittal, implementing an appeals process may spur decision-makers to reduce their effort and thus be detrimental to the accuracy of legal decisions. We show that this result is true whether an appeal can be brought both after an acquittal or a conviction at trial, or the right to bring an appeal is limited by double jeopardy.
Classification-JEL
K14, K4.
Mot(s) clé(s)
appeals, legal errors, crime deterrence.
Fichier

2014-44 "Merit order effect and strategic investments in intermittent generation technologies"

Silvia Concettini

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Résumé
This paper studies the strategic interactions between two electricity generators, the first producing with a \traditional" technology and the second employing a \renewable" technology characterized by the random availability of capacity due to the intermittency of its power source. The competition between the \traditional" and the \renewable" power producers is examined through a modified version of the two stage Dixit model for entry deterrence (Dixit, 1980) with Cournot competition in the post entry stage. The outcome of the game suggests that the \renewable" generator exploits the merit order rule which governs spot electricity markets to invest and produce as if it were a sort of Stackelberg leader. While in most cases producer's preferences over strategies do not depend on the average value of capacity availability, according to the value of this parameter the market may lead to an equilibrium which benefits both the \renewable" producer and the consumers. Given that production of electricity from the renewable source depends on actual weather conditions, the analysis of ex-post payoffs reveals that \renewable" producer's preferences over strategies may be reversed for small errors in the forecasting of the true value of the average capacity availability factor when the investment cost in the renewable technology is relatively low. In this case, the incentives for strategic behaviour of the \renewable" producer may be even stronger. The main insights of the model seem to be barely sensitive to changes in the market power of competitors: even when the \renewable" generator behaves as a competitive fringe in the spot market, it is able to infuence equilibrium outcome to its own advantage through investment choices although to a smaller degree than in the standard setting.
Classification-JEL
D43, L13, L43, L94.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Competition, Renewable generation, Capacity investments, Merit order
Fichier

2014-45 "Regional dynamics and start-ups: Evidence from French departments in 2011"

Denis Carré, Nadine Levratto

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Résumé
Ce papier cherche à déterminer le rôle joué par les dynamiques régionales dans la création d’entreprises. L’idée que les dynamiques locales influencent l’activité entrepreneuriale s’appuie sur le fait que les effets d’agglomération qui se produisent qui se produisent au niveau d’un écosystème local renforcent les effets directs des ressources locales que sont les revenus ainsi que les ressources matérielles, humaines et organisationnelles. Nous abordons cette question de manière empirique en considérant le cas des départements français en 2011. Afin de prendre en considération le rôle joué par le voisinage et la dépendance spatiale qui en résulte, nous estimons la sensibilité du taux de création d’entreprises global et du taux de création dans l’industrie en utilisant des techniques d’économétrie spatiale qui permettent de
contrôler les phénomènes d’auto-corrélation spatiale. Nos résultats montrent que la cré »ation d’entreprises dépend fortement des facteurs locaux et que la source de dépendance locale diffère selon que l’on mesure le taux de création global ou le taux de création d’entreprises industrielles. Alors qu’un retard spatial intervient au niveau global, la création d’entreprises dans le secteur industriel est davantage influencée par les chocs intervenant au voisinage, si bien que le recours à un modèle avec erreur spatiale s’en trouve légitimé.
Classification-JEL
L26, R11, C21.
Mot(s) clé(s)
entrepreneurship, entry rate, spatial dependence, French departments
Fichier

2014-46 "Cross-Market Spillovers with ‘Volatility Surprise’"

Sofiane Aboura, Julien Chevallier

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Résumé
This article adopts the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) model developed by Vargas (2008), by updating the concept of ‘volatility surprise’ to capture cross-market relationships. Current methods for measuring spillovers do not focus on volatility interactions, and neglect cross-effects between the conditional variances. This paper aims to fill this gap. The dataset includes four aggregate indices representing equities, bonds, foreign exchange rates and commodities from 1983 to 2013. The results provide strong evidence of spillover effects coming from the ‘volatility surprise’ component across markets. Against the background of the recent financial crisis, the aim is to contribute to the literature on the interdependencies of financial markets, both in conditional means and (co)variances. In addition, asset management implications are derived.
Classification-JEL
C32, C4, G15.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Cross-market relationships, Volatility surprise, Volatility spillover, ADCCX, Asset management.
Fichier

2014-47 "The cost of pollution on longevity, welfare and economic stability"

Natacha Raffin, Thomas Seegmuller

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Résumé
This paper presents an overlapping generations model where pollution, private and public healths are all determinants of longevity. Public expenditure, financed through labour taxation, provide both public health and abatement. We study the complementarity between the three components of longevity on welfare and economic stability. At the steady state, we show that an appropriate fiscal policy may enhance welfare. However, when pollution is heavily harmful for longevity, the economy might experience aggregate instability or endogenous cycles. Nonetheless, a fiscal policy, which raises the share of public spending devoted to health, may display stabilizing virtues and rule out cycles. This allows us to recommend the design of the public policy that may comply with the dynamic and welfare objectives.
Classification-JEL
J10; O40; Q56; C62.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Longevity; Pollution; Welfare; Complex dynamics.
Fichier

2014-48 "La croissance des PME est-elle favorisée par les Business Angels ? Une analyse à partir du cas français en 2008 et 2009"

Nadine Levratto, Luc Tessier

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Résumé
Les recherches sur la contribution des Business Angels (BA) à la croissance de l’économie sont encore récentes et relativement peu diffusées, en France notamment. Afin de comparer la dynamique d’entreprises adossées à des BA à des entreprises qui ne le sont pas, nous proposons une méthode d’analyse empirique consistant à estimer des modèles multivariés permettant de rendre compte de l’influence de l’intervention des BA sur différents indicateurs de structure de l’entreprise. Notre analyse repose sur une base de données unique composée de 300 sociétés françaises financées par des investisseurs providentiels. Les résultats obtenus permettent de rendre compte de l’influence de l’intervention d’un BA sur les trajectoires des entreprises. Celle-ci exerce un effet contrasté sur la croissance de l’effectif et un effet quasi nul sur le chiffre d’affaires mais favorise visiblement la réalisation d’investissements productifs. Ces résultats sont robustes dans la mesure où ils ne dépendent pas de l’échantillon contrefactuel retenu. Ils demeurent également valides sous différentes spécifications des modèles obtenues grâce à l’introduction de diverses variables expliquées.
Classification-JEL
G24, L25, M13.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Business Angels, croissance des PME, financement, France
Fichier

2014-49 "Is job creation dependent on the local context? An analysis of French industrial establishments over the period 2004-2010."

Aziza Garsaa, Nadine Levratto

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Résumé
Ce texte cherche à renouveler l’analyse de la question des relations entre les performances des entreprises et le contexte local. Cette question est abordée de manière empirique à partir de l’étude de l’évolution de l’emploi d’établissements industriels français géo-référencés au niveau de la zone d’emploi, un niveau de découpage cohérent du point de vue économique. Grâce à l’utilisation d’un panel non-cylindré de 149 929 établissements actifs au cours de la période 2004-2010, nous estimons différents modèles de croissance contenant des variables locales comme variables explicatives et contrôlés par des variables individuelles. Les résultats confirment que la croissance de la firme est influencée par le contexte local et que certains éléments tels que le taux de chômage, les effets d’agglomération ou les compétences de la 2 main d’oeuvre exercent un effet significatif. Les tests de robustesse réalisés sur des sousensembles montrent cependant que le profil d’activité de la zone d’emploi ou la taille du marché peuvent significativement affecter l’intensité de la relation entre la firme et son environnement.
Classification-JEL
L25, R11, C23.
Mot(s) clé(s)
firm growth, geographical location, manufacturing industry, panel data.
Fichier

2014-50 "Female Labour Supply in the Czech Transition: Effects of the Work-Life Conciliation Policies"

Alzbeta Mangarella

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Résumé
Czech conciliation policies, i.e. social, family and employment policies affecting households’ fertility and employment choices, have gone through dramatic changes since the 1989 transition to market economy. After a brief presentation of conciliation policies and practices before and after the transition, we focus on the 1995 Czech Parental Benefit reform and we evaluate its impact on mothers’ labour supply. The payment of parental benefits was extended to 4 years instead of 3 without an equivalent extension of the job protected parental leave, leaving to mothers the choice of either guaranteed employment or additional twelve months of benefits. We use difference in-differences strategy of identification to assess the net effect of this reform on mother’s labour market participation. We find a sizeable and negative impact on mothers’ probability of return to work at the end of the parental leave.
Classification-JEL
J13, J16, J18, P30.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Female Labour Supply, Parental Leave and Benefit, Policy Evaluation.
Fichier

2014-51 "Open Access vs. Restricted Access with Two Variable Factors: On the Redistributive Effects of a Property Regime Change"

Ronan Congar, Louis Hotte

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Résumé
Nous analysons l’impact de long terme sur les revenus des facteurs produit par une transition du régime de propriété dans le secteur des ressources naturelles, soit du libre-accès vers l’accès contrôlé. Par long terme, nous entendons le fait que le capital soit mobile entre les secteurs au même titre que la main d’œuvre. Nous montrons que la transition avantage le (nuit au) facteur qui est initialement utilisé de manière plus (moins) intensive dans le secteur manufacturier relativement au secteur de la ressource. Notre analyse introduit l’approche duale afin de comparer les régimes de propriété en équilibre général
Classification-JEL
D02, D23, D33, K11, Q2, N5, O13.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Droits de propriété, ressources naturelles, mobilitité du capital, revenus des facteurs, distribution du revenu, approche duale.
Fichier

2014-52 "Financial integration, financial turmoil and risk premia in emerging markets"

Salem Boubakri, Cécile Couharde, Hélène Raymond

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Résumé
The aim of this article is to study the dynamics of financial integration and of the risk premia in emerging markets. Accordingly, we estimate a variant of the International Asset Pricing Model (IAPM) developed by Errunza and Losq (1985) and Carrieri et al. (2007), allowing for time-varying stock market integration, in which we include the foreign currency risk. Our sample consists of monthly data for 12 emerging stock markets over the period 1988−2012. We find that the evolution of financial integration is broadly consistent with the de jure measure of capital openness, but much less sticky. Moreover, while the financial integration of emerging stock markets displays an upward trend, it has also registered short-term reversals episodes during crises. The upward trend in financial integration does not reduce the local market risk premium component as much as could be expected, as regional crises strengthen the idiosyncratic character of the risk premium. Finally, the recent global crisis has induced a reassessment of the world market risk premium for all emerging countries, highlighting the global nature of the crisis.
Classification-JEL
C32, F31, G12.
Mot(s) clé(s)
De facto financial integration, emerging markets, IAPM, risk premium.
Fichier

2014-53 "Is the oil currency – oil price nexus affected by dollar swings?"

Gabriel Gomes

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Résumé
This paper investigates to which extent dollar real exchange rate movements affect the relationship between oil prices and oil currencies. Estimating a panel cointegrating model between the real exchange rate and its drivers for a sample of 11 OPEC countries and 8 major oil-exporting economies over the 1980-2013 period, we find evidence to support the existence of oil currencies. To analyze how dollar movements may affect the oil price – oil currency nexus, we then estimate a panel smooth transition regression model. Results show that beyond a certain threshold for the dollar depreciation, the sign of the relationship between oil prices and oil countries’ exchange rate switches from positive to negative. In fact, when the dollar depreciation is higher than 2.45%, an increase in oil price has a negative impact on oil exporters’ exchange rate. We also re-explore the causality between the USD real exchange rate and the oil price, showing that the causality between the two variables has changed over the period under study. Finally, we investigate how the Fed monetary policy may impact the oil currency – oil price relationship, and find evidence to support that the US policy rate is a key to understand oil currencies movements.
Classification-JEL
C33, F31, Q43.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Oil price; Oil currencies; Non-linearities.
Fichier

2014-54 "The Ricardian rent theory two centuries after"

Christian Bidard

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Résumé
We propose to re-read Ricardo's theory of rent and its modern versions. Ricardo's dynamic approach follows the transformations of a long-term equilibrium with demand. Sraffa adopted the same framework while substituting a value criterion for a physical criterion to determine the incoming marginal method, but he did not state the law of succession of methods explicitly. This prevented him to realize that his critique opens the door to all complications of capital the ory, with the consequence that the Ricardian dynamics fail when a divergence appears between profitability and productivity. Contemporary studies have cast doubts on the validity of some of Ricardo's and Sraffa's over-optimistic conclusions, but the abandonment of the dynamic approach does not allow them to explain the ultimate reason of the phenomena they have pointed at. Ricardo's method has been recently rediscovered by mathematicians.
Classification-JEL
B12, B51, C61, D33.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Classical theory, land, rent, Ricardo, Sraffa.
Fichier

2014-55 "The Wage Curve in Austrian Models"

Christian Bidard

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Résumé
We fully characterise, in terms of their local or global properties, the wage curves associated with Austrian models of production. When these properties are met, the degrees of freedom in the choice of parameters allow us to build an Austrian model which admits a given wage curve and satis…es other requirements.
Classification-JEL
B53, D24, D33.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Austrian model, long run, trade-o¤property, wage curve.
Fichier

2014-56 "(How) does sectoral detail affect the robustness of policy insights from energy system models? The refining sector’s example."

Claire Nicolas, Valérie Saint-Antonin, Stéphane Tchung-Ming

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Résumé
In this research, we rekindle an old debate by questioning the impact on mitigating policy evaluation of detailing a subsector in a global energy-transportation model. We chose the refining sector because it is a relevant case of a sector for which representation widely differs across models and because it offers a unique set of complex joint production in the energy sector. To investigate whether the level of detail in the description of the refinery impacts optimal mitigation options, we take the example of a long-term, national, linear programming based, energy-transport system model (TIMES based). We found that the refinery description used in the energy system model matters when trying to evaluate energy or climate policy applied to the transportation sector. It impacts the policy costs but also the technology trajectories chosen at the optimum. Essentially, the balance between energy efficiency and carbon intensity of transport may be affected by the accuracy of the description of the pivotal refining sector. Consequently, increasing this sector accuracy level should not only be motivated by the wish to gain wider quantitative insights on potential evolution of the energy system but also by the wish to improve the robustness of the model outcomes.
Classification-JEL
C60, Q47, Q54.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Energy modeling, Refinery modeling, Parsimony, Level of details.
Fichier

2014-57 "Candidatures spontanées, réseaux et intermédiaires publics : quelle information et quels appariements sur le marché du travail français?"

Géraldine Rieucau, Guillemette de Larquier

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Résumé
A partir des enquêtes Emploi en panel (2005-2011) de l’Insee, cet article analyse les appariements via les trois principaux canaux sur le marché du travail français : candidatures spontanées, réseaux et intermédiaires publics. Il s’agit d’étudier le mode d’accès à l’emploi des individus recrutés chaque trimestre en tenant compte des canaux effectivement activés lors de leur recherche. L’hypothèse défendue est que les trois canaux mènent à des appariements différents car ils ne véhiculent pas le même type d’information sur les candidats, le format de l’information pouvant être écrit, raconté ou standardisé.
Classification-JEL
J01, J6
Mot(s) clé(s)
job search, recruitment channels, French Labour Force Surveys, format of information.
Fichier

2014-58 "Independent directors: less informed, but better selected? New evidence from a two-way director-firm fixed effect model"

Sandra Cavaco, Patricia Crifo, Antoine Rebérioux, Gwenael Roudaut

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Résumé
This paper develops a two-way director-firm fixed effect model to study the relationship between independent directors’ individual heterogeneity and firm operating performance, using French data. This strategy allows considering and differentiating in a unified empirical framework mechanisms related to board functioning and mechanisms related to director selection. We first show that the independence status, netted out unobservable individual heterogeneity, is negatively related to performance. This result suggests that independent board members experience a strong informational gap that outweighs other monitoring benefits. However, we show that industry-specific expertise as well as informal connections inside the boardroom may help to bridge this gap. Second, we provide evidence that independent directors have higher intrinsic ability as compared to affiliated board members, consistent with a reputation-based selection process.
Classification-JEL
G30, G34.
Mot(s) clé(s)
independent director heterogeneity, information asymmetry, director selection, firm performance, two-way fixed effect model.
Fichier

2014-59 "The structure of fines in the light of political competition"

Eric Langlais, Marie Obidzinski

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Résumé
This paper analyzes the determinants of public law enforcement policies when citizens vote for the timing and level of fines. We consider situations where citizens and politicians disagree on the value of the expected social harm associated with some activities. We find that citizens vote for act-based (harm-based) sanctions when they expect that social harm is low (resp high). On the other hand, we show that the equilibrium fines may be higher or lower than the optimal one, depending on the difference between politicians and citizens' expectations.
Classification-JEL
D72, D73, H1, K14, K23, K32, K4, Q52,Q53, Q58.
Mot(s) clé(s)
timing of sanction, law enforcement, deterrence, political competition, majority rule.
Fichier

2014-60 "On the information and communication technologies - productivity nexus: a long-lasting adjustment period"

Benjamin David

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Résumé
This paper investigates the relationship between Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and productivity within 240 industries from 8 OECD countries. Specifically, it aims at providing explanations for the coexistence of this strong technological evolution together with the absence of break in the productivity trend during the last decades. We calculate the total factor productivity changes and their components (technical progress and pure efficiency changes) over the period 1973-2005 using the Malmquist productivity index and we then relate these measures with data on ICT diffusion using regression trees. Our results suggest that ICT diffusion is accompanied by opposite movements that conceal the potential of these technologies. Indeed, we find evidence of a clearly identifiable positive relationship between computerization and technical progress, while ICT diffusion negatively affects pure efficiency changes. Our findings support the existence of an adjustment period and are consistent with the fact that the economies under consideration are still in a phase of adaptation.
Classification-JEL
C14, D24, O33.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Information and Communication Technologies, General Purpose Technologies, Malmquist productivity index, Data envelopment analysis, regression tree.
Fichier

2014-61 "On the effectiveness of devaluations in emerging and developing countries"

Carl Grekou

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Résumé
In this paper, we address the issue of devaluations' effectiveness by investigating to what extent a nominal devaluation leads to a real depreciation. Beyond the traditional factors identified by the literature, we pay particular attention to the size of the nominal devaluation and to the initial misalignment of the real exchange rate. Using a sample of 57 devaluation episodes (in 40 developing and emerging countries) and relying on panel data techniques, we evidence that the existence of a sizeable overvaluation of the real exchange rate is a prerequisite to ensure that nominal devaluations will have an expected effect in terms of real depreciations. Furthermore, our results put forward a potential nonlinear relationship between the size of the devaluation and the effectiveness of the nominal adjustment: devaluations operate more efficiently when the magnitude of the nominal adjustment is lower.
Classification-JEL
C1, E6, F3, F41.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Bayesian model averaging; Currency devaluations; Macroeconomic policies; Real exchange rates’ misalignments.
Fichier
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