WORKING PAPERS 2019
2019-28
Determinants of investments in solar photovoltaic: Do oil prices really matter?
Margaux Escoffier, Emmanuel Hache, Valérie Mignon, Anthony Paris
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the determinants of solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the electricity mix for a panel of OECD and BRICS countries from 1997 to 2016 by paying particular attention to the impact of oil market conditions. Relying on a nonlinear, regime-switching specification, we show that rising oil prices stimulate PV deployment only if their growth rate is important, above 6.7%. Although we find that various other determinants matter—with the influence of some of them depending on the situation on the oil market—public policies play a crucial role. In particular, our findings show that feed-in-tariffs should be encouraged to ensure a continuous fight against climate change, whatever the dynamics followed by oil prices.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Solar photovoltaic; Renewables deployment; Oil prices; Panel smooth transition regression
2019-27
Credit Unions in Chile: What is their Role?
Antonio Lemus, Cristian Rojas
- Abstract
- This paper questions the role that credit unions play in the Chilean financial system, particularly if they allow financial inclusion. For this purpose, using unique statistical information existing at the CMF, the credit and savings behavior of credit unions’ members is studied, with granularity at the individual level. The results indicate that credit unions effectively contribute to financial inclusion, providing financial services mostly to people with low incomes, elderly, women, and inhabitants of small communities, far from the large urban centers.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- credit unions, financial inclusion, credit
2019-26
The mental health consequences of globalisation
Maria Cervini, Antonia Lopez Villavicencio
- Abstract
- Micro evidence for employed workers has led to the claim that globalisation, i.e. higher trade exposure, has far-reaching implications for mental health problems in some advanced countries. Evidence for other aspects of globalisation at the cross-country level is scarce. Using information on depression and anxiety, combined with proxies for different dimensions of globalisation, we undertake a detail analysis in a large sample of countries. We go beyond the simple impact of globalisation in observable labor market outcomes and show that more globalized counties experience higher mental distress than less globalized countries. In particular, we show that even though trade globalisation reduces mental health disorders at the country-level, the positive influence of social globalisation prevails over the economic dimension. Hence, our results complement documented consequences of globalisation on mental health outcomes by showing that factors involving cross-border movement of cultures and openness of media play a major role.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Mental Health, globalisation, anxiety, depression
2019-25
Profit vs morality: how unfair is labor market discrimination? Results from a survey experiment
Matthieu Bunel, Élisabeth Tovar
- Abstract
- Using an original survey-experimental protocol, we study the normative acceptability of the trade-off between immoral profit (discrimination) and costly morality (non-discrimination). We test the causal influence of three factors: i) the origin of discrimination, ii) the steepness of the morality/profit trade-off and iii) anti-discriminatory moral injunctions. Contrasting with past experimental and attitudinal studies, we find that a significant minority of respondents believe that labor market discrimination is acceptable when morality results in profit loss. We also find that the three tested factors have significant effects on normative opinions. Respondents are more likely to choose profit over morality when discrimination is taste-based than when it is caused by imperfect information. Discrimination’s acceptability rises with the cost of non discrimination. Anti-discriminatory moral injunctions sharply reduces the acceptability of profitable discrimination.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- discrimination, moral suasion, profit/morality trade-off, vignette survey experiment
2019-24
Determinants of banks' profitability: Do Basel III liquidity and capital ratios matter?
Pierre Durand
- Abstract
- In this paper, we investigate the role played by the TCR and LCR among determinants of banks' profitability. To this end, using Random Forest regressions and a large dataset of banks' balance sheet variables, we assess the impact and predicting power of Basel III capital and liquidity ratios. Our results confirm the trade-off theory of the capital structure: banks have an optimal capital ratio below which the relation between capital and profitability is positive. On average, this optimum falls between 15% and 20%. Furthermore, we show that LCR has a positive, but weak, effect on profitability. Overall, our findings illustrate the fact that regulatory ratios do not constitute binding conditions for banks' performance.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Basel III, Capital ratio, Liquidity ratio, Banks' profitability, Random Forest regressions.
2019-23
Product liability when cumulative harm is incurred by both consumers and third parties
Tim Friehe, Eric Langlais, Elisabeth Schulte
- Abstract
- Traditional law and economics analyses of product liability assume that expected harm is proportional to usage. This paper builds on Daughety and Reinganum (2013a, 2014) by assuming that harm increases and is convex in usage. In contrast to previous contributions, we analyze liability rules when not only consumers but also third parties incur harm. We show that the social ranking of liability rules previously established for the case in which only consumers suffer harm (strict liability dominates no liability and negligence)may be reversed if third party harm is sufficiently important.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Product liability; Cumulative harm; Environmental harm
2019-22
The Impact of the Expansion of African Palm Crop on Child Undernutrition in South-West Guatemala
Juliana Yael Milovich
- Abstract
- The struggle for water and land use in Guatemala has intensiffed in the last decade due to the accelerated expansion of the agro-export sector. Particularly, in the south-west region, the recent expansion of african palm crop has taken place at the expense of illegal dredging of rivers, the improper use of water resources and the purchase and forced dispossession of communal and family lands of the indigenous population. This
situation not only represents a destructuring of the established order within families and within indigenous communities, but also compromises the nutritional health of the most vulnerable members, such as children and women. This study provides evidence on how the rapid development of this agro-export crop has contributed to increase the probability of children suffering from chronic malnutrition in the region, and particularly those from indigenous mothers, living in urban areas and in households where the head of the family is a man. - Mot(s) clé(s)
- Child Undernutrition, African Palm, Impact Evaluation
2019-21
Market collusion with joint harm and liability sharing
Florian Baumann, Maxime Charreire, Andreea Cosnita-Langlais
- Abstract
- When it is impossible to identify ex post the producer of a product causing harm or the damage caused is indivisible although caused by multiple injurers, courts must apportion the total damage among tortfeasors. In this model we examine how such liability sharing rules affect the likelhood of tacit collusion. For this we use a standard Cournot oligopoly model where firms are collectively held liable for joint harm inflicted on third parties. The damage caused may be either linear or cumulative in total industry output. With repeated market interaction and grim strategies, we investigate the sustainability of collusion to derive some policy implications.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Cournot oligopoly, liability sharing rules, market collusion
2019-20
Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model
Anaïs Henneguelle, Benjamin Monnery, François-Charles Wolff
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the effect of semi-liberty as an alternative to prison on recidivism in France. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset comprising 1,445 offenders, all eligible to semi-liberty. In the absence of an instrumental variable affecting access to semi-liberty but unrelated to recidivism, we turn to selection-on-observable methods as well as sensitivity analyses to bound the causal effect of interest. Our results under treatment exogeneity (Cox regressions) and conditional independence (matching) show that semi-liberty is associated with a reduction of 22% to 31% in offenders’ hazard of recidivism in the five years after release. The estimated effects decrease, but remain negative and significant when credible confounders are introduced. Overall, our analysis lends strong support for a beneficial effect of semi-liberty compared to prison.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Recidivism, semi-liberty, halfway houses, prison, survival analyses, sensitivity analyses
2019-19
Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the US Experience
Yao Axel Ehouman
- Abstract
- Linkages between oil prices and stock prices of the US banking sector have become more complex with the strong rise in the US production of shale oil. The concern is whether the exposure of the US banking sector to shale oil companies has led to volatility spillover transmission between
stocks’ prices of the exposed US banks and oil prices. Using stocks prices data of the four major US banks involved in oil and gas industries and the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, we investigate these volatility spillovers from 2006 to 2016, using a vector fractional integrated ARMA.
Our results support the existence of such volatility spillovers, suggesting thus a new factor likely to trigger future turmoil on oil markets and in the banking sector. - Mot(s) clé(s)
- Oil, US banks stock, Realized Volatility, VARFIMA model .
2019-18
Determinants of banks' liquidity : a French perspective on market and regulatory ratio interactions
Sandrine Lecarpentier, Cyril Pouvelle, Olivier de Bandt
- Abstract
- The objective of the paper is to investigate how banks adjust the structure of their balance sheet as a response to a funding shock and to propose a methodology for projecting banks’ liquidity ratios in a top-down stress test scenario. In line with a theoretical model assessing the effects of capital and liquidity constraints on banks’ behaviour, we estimate the joint system of banks’ solvency and liquidity ratios, using for proxy of the latter, the "liquidity coefficient" implemented in France before Basel III. We provide evidence of a positive effect of the solvency ratio on the liquidity coefficient: a high level of solvency enables the liquidity coefficient to improve due to a more stable funding structure. By contrast, we do not find firm evidence of an impact of the liquidity coefficient on the solvency ratio. We also show that financial variables capturing international markets’ risk aversion and tensions in the interbank market have a significant impact during periods of stress only, confirming the evidence of strong interactions between market liquidity and bank funding liquidity during crisis periods.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Bank Capital Regulation, Bank Liquidity Regulation, Basel III, stress tests
2019-17
Reexamining the growth effects of ENSO: the role of local weather conditions
Cécile Couharde, Olivier Damette, Rémi Generoso, Kamiar Mohaddes
- Abstract
- This paper examines the growth effects of ENSO events through their interactions with local weather conditions using the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 1975 to 2014 and over a sample of 74 countries. The inclusion of SPEI in panel estimation makes it possible to control for time-varying country-specific effects of ENSO events, therefore outlining their heterogeneous effects on growth and eliminating a potential source of omitted variable bias. By better identifying the persistence of ENSO effects on local weather conditions, we evidence that ENSO events generate heterogeneous and local effects depending not only on countries' climate regime but also on their weather patterns. Our results suggest that examining the growth effects of ENSO events should thus explicitly account for their interaction with weather patterns to capture more precisely the heterogeneity across countries.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Economic growth, ENSO events, Weather conditions
2019-16
Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Accounting for changes in the Eurozone trade structure
Antonia Lopez Villavicencio, Valérie Mignon
- Abstract
- This paper assesses whether the emergence of new trading partners (i.e., China and Eastern Europe) as suppliers reduces the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in Eurozone countries which differ regarding their external exposure. Using bilateral data on import prices at the two-digit sector level, we find that (i) pass-through is complete in many cases, (ii) ERPT from China is higher than from the United States, and (iii) there is no compelling evidence of a generalized link between ERPT and the increasing integration of some emerging markets in European imports. We also show that the launch of the single currency has not provoked a sufficient change in the part of trade exposed to exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, has not affected the pass-through. Overall, the trend of liberalization in new players' markets has not altered the competitive environment such as to induce exporters of other countries to absorb exchange rate depreciations.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Exchange rate pass-through; import prices; China; Eastern Europe; Eurozone
2019-15
Local Whittle Analysis of Stationary Unbalanced Fractional Cointegration Systems
Florent Dubois, Elena Ivona Dumitrescu, Gilles de Truchis
- Abstract
- In this paper we propose a local Whittle estimator of stationary bivariate unbalanced fractional cointegration systems. Unbalanced cointegration refers to the situation where the observables have different integration orders, but their filtered versions have equal integration orders and are cointegrated in the usual sense. Based on the frequency domain representation of the unbalanced version of Phillips’ triangular system, we develop a semiparametric approach to jointly estimate the unbalance parameter, the long run coefficient, and the integration orders of the regressand and cointegrating errors. The paper establishes the consistency and asymptotic normality of this estimator. We find a peculiar rate of convergence for the unbalance estimator (possibly faster than root-n) and a singular joint limiting distribution of the unbalance and long-run coefficients. Its good finite-sample properties are emphasized through Monte Carlo experiments. We illustrate the relevance of the developed estimator for financial data in an empirical application to the information flowing between the crude oil spot and CME-NYMEX markets.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Unbalanced cointegration, Long memory, Stationarity, Local Whittle likelihood
2019-14
Narrow-band Weighted Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of Unbalanced Cointegration Systems
Elena Ivona Dumitrescu, Gilles de Truchis
- Abstract
- We discuss cointegration relationships when covariance stationary observables exhibit unbalanced integration orders. Least squares type estimates of the long run coefficient are expected to converge either to 0 or to infinity if one does not account for the true unknown unbalance parameter. We propose a class of narrow-band weighted non-linear least squares estimators of these two parameters and analyze its asymptotic properties. The limit distribution is shown to be Gaussian, albeit singular, and it covers the entire stationary region in the particular case of the generalized non-linear least squares estimator, thereby allowing for straightforward statistical inference. A Monte Carlo study documents the good finite sample properties of our class of estimators. They are further used to provide new perspectives on the risk-return relationship on financial stock markets. In particular, we find that the variance risk premium estimated in an appropriately rebalanced cointegration system is a better return predictor than existing risk premia measures.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Unbalanced cointegration, Long memory, Stationarity, Generalized Least Squares, Nonlinear Least Squares
2019-13
Having a child? Here is the bill - Parenthood, Earnings and Careers in an Internal Labor
Claudio Lucifora, Dominique Meurs, Elena Vilar
- Abstract
- Using a unique 12-years panel of personnel records from a large French company, we find
that becoming mother (extensive fertility margins) largely affects labor market outcomes.
Instead, fatherhood does not significantly impact on men's wages or careers. An event study
approach with the use of non-parents as control group enables us to show that, prior to
childbirth, future mothers' earnings are in line with that of non-mothers. However, one year
after birth, they start to fall, reaching -9% in total pay and -30% in individual bonuses.
This drop is persistent: 8 years after childbirth there is no evidence of a catching-up trend.
Mothers also have lower chances to climb-up the hierarchy of the firm and be promoted to
managerial positions. A decomposition of the motherhood penalty shows that these \missed
promotions", likely due to an increase in absenteeism during the child's pre-school age, are
the main determinants of mothers' lower outcomes within the firm. - Mot(s) clé(s)
- Children, Motherhood penalty, Gender inequalities, Event study
2019-12
Lower bank capital requirements as a policy tool to support credit to SMEs: evidence from a policy experiment
Michel Dietsch, Henri Fraisse, Sandrine Lecarpentier, Mathias Lé
- Abstract
- Starting in 2014 with the implementation of the European Commission Capital Requirement Directive, banks operating in the Euro area were benefiting from a 25% reduction (the Supporting Factor or "SF" hereafter) in their own funds requirements against Small and Medium-sized enterprises ("SMEs" hereafter) loans. We investigate empirically whether this reduction has supported SME financing and to which extent it is consistent with SME credit risk. Economic capital computations based on multifactor models do confirm that capital requirements should be lower for SMEs. Taking into account the uncertainty surrounding their estimates and adopting a conservative approach, we show that the SF is consistent with the difference in economic capital between SMEs and large corporates. As for the impact on credit distribution, our differences-in-differences specification enables us to find a positive and significant impact of the SF on the credit supply.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- SME finance, Credit supply, Basel III, Credit risk modelling, SME Supporting Factor
2019-11
Banks’ Business Model and Credit Supply in Chile: The Role of a State-Owned Bank
Felipe Córdova, Antonio Lemus, Biron Miguel
- Abstract
- During the recent financial crisis, banks suffered losses on a scale not witnessed since the Great Depression, partly due to two structural developments in the banking industry; deregulation combined with financial innovation. The regulatory response concentrated on the Basel III recommendations, affected banks’ business model and funding patterns. Consequently, these changes have had implications on how banks grant loans, how they react to monetary policy shocks, and on how they respond to global shocks. We find evidence of significant interactions between banks’ lending and both monetary and global shocks in Chile. In particular, these interactions have been significantly shaped by the counter-cyclical behavior of the state-owned bank. The good governance of this institution along with a sound legal and economic environment, have propitiated this result.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- bank lending channel, global factors, Banco Estado
2019-10
Firm soundness and knowledge externalities: a comparative regional analysis
Lara Abdel Fattah, Giuseppe Arcuri, Aziza Garsaa, Nadine Levratto
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the role of regional context with regard to human capital and knowledge spillover effects in SMEs’ financial soundness. Our empirical setting is based on the multilevel analysis for panel data, which better allows for the treatment of hierarchical data. It is applied to firms belonging to the industrial sector and operating in four European countries over the 2010–2015 period. We find that a combination of individual- and regional-level characteristics explain firm soundness more accurately than individual features alone. Furthermore, we find that a higher local educational level and knowledge spillover improve the firm soundness.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Entreprise et territoire, capital humain, robustesse financière de l'entreprise, modèle multiniveau
2019-9
Les banques coopératives ont-elles été plus performantes pendant les crises récentes ?
Ouafa Ouyahia
- Abstract
- This paper compares the profitability of European cooperative banks with that of non-cooperative banks over the period 2005-2014 using the generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM). We consider traditional measures of bank performance which are: return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and net interest margin (NIM). Even if these measures are not adapted to cooperative banks, they remain the most used in the literature. Our results show that cooperative banks are no more or less performant than the rest of banks when the entire period is considered. However, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe had a relatively greater effect on the performance of cooperative banks as a whole, unlike the 2008 crisis. Conversely, systemic co-operative banks appear to be relatively more performant during the sovereign debt crisis. However, no distinction is made between systemic cooperative banks and other banks during the 2008 financial crisis.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Performance, cooperative banks, the 2008 financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe
2019-8
Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon: what do the French secular data say ?
David Le Bris, Georges Prat
- Abstract
- We consider a representative investor whose wealth is shared between a replica of the equity market portfolio and the riskless asset, and who maximizes the expected utility of their future wealth. For a given time-horizon, the solution of this program equalizes the required risk premium to the product of price of risk by the expected variance of stock returns. As a tentative to capture exogenous disturbing effects, the term spread of interest rates and US equity risk premia complement this relationship. Two traditional horizons are considered: the one-period-ahead horizon characterizing the ‘short-term’ investor and the infinite-time horizon characterizing the ‘long-term’ investor. For each horizon, expected returns are represented by mixing the three traditional adaptive, extrapolative and regressive process, expected variance is represented by a GARCH process, while the unobservable time-varying price of risk is estimated according to the Kalman filter methodology. Based on annual French data established by Le Bris and Hautcoeur (2010), large disparities in the dynamics of the short- and long term observed premia are evidenced from 1872 to 2018, while, due to risky arbitrage and transaction costs, the observed premia appeared to gradually converge towards their required values. Overall, although the French market had experienced very strong historical shocks, our model provides both measurements and explanations of French short- and long-term risk premia and so shed some additional light on the existence of a time-varying term structure of equity risk premia. Despite differences, results on the French market are rather in accordance with those by Prat (2013) based on US secular data.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- equity risk premium, time horizon, France
2019-7
Les déterminants locaux de la participation numérique au Grand débat national : une analyse économétrique
Hamza Bennani, Pauline Gandré, Benjamin Monnery
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the local determinants of the electronic participation to the "Grand débat". First, we highlight the spatial heterogeneity of the participants using their zip code. Second, we use an econometric approach to assess the local determinants of the general participation and the participation on each of the four topics of the "Grand débat". The results show that the median standard of living and the education level are the main determinants of the general participation, whereas some specific variables explain the participation of each of the four topics.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Grand débat, electronic participation, local determinants
2019-6
Heterogeneity within the euro area: New insights into an old story
Virginie Coudert, Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon
- Abstract
- We assess cross-country heterogeneity within the eurozone and its evolution over time by measuring the distances between the equilibrium exchange rates’ paths of member countries. These equilibrium paths are derived from the minimization of currency misalignments, by matching real exchange rates with their economic fundamentals. Using cluster and factor analyses, we identify two distinct groups of countries in the run-up to the European Monetary Union (EMU), Greece being clearly an outlier at that time. Comparing the results with more recent periods, we find evidence of rising dissimilarities between these two sets of countries, as well as within the groups themselves. Overall, our findings illustrate the building-up of macroeconomic imbalances within the eurozone before the 2008 crisis and the fragmentation between its member countries that followed.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Euro area; Equilibrium exchange rates; Cluster analysis; Factor analysis; Macroeconomic imbalances
2019-5
Mind the Conversion Risk: a Theoretical Assessment of Contingent Convertible Bonds
Gaëtan Le Quang
- Abstract
- We develop a theoretical model to assess the merits of principal-write down contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds. The conversion risk is the key feature of CoCo bonds. Because of this conversion risk, CoCo bonds are hard to price and an equilibrium price does not necessarily exist. In our model, for such a price to exist, the bank needs to hold a minimum amount of equity and/or the expected return associated with its asset portfolio needs to be large enough. When an equilibrium price exists, it is a decreasing function in the amount of equity held by the bank. Well-capitalized banks can thus issue CoCo bonds at a lower price than least-capitalized banks. This is the reason why CoCo bonds are to be thought of more as a complement to equity than as a substitute. In addition, because of the conversion risk, self-fulfilling panics may occur in the CoCo bonds' market. We indeed define a game between CoCo bonds' holders and the Central Bank that allows us to exhibit situations where a panic occurs in the CoCo bonds' market. Using the global game technique, we show that the probability of crisis can be expressed as a function of the return associated with the asset portfolio of the bank. The probability of crisis is shown to be sensitive to the precision of the information available to CoCo bonds' holders. Taken together, our results call for cautiousness when assessing the relevance of regulatory requirements in CoCo bonds, especially concerning their systemic impact.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- convertible contingent bonds; conversion risk; equity; banks; systemic risk
2019-4
On the impact of capital and liquidity ratios on financial stability
Pierre Durand
- Abstract
- In response to the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, the G20 mandated the Basel Committee to put in place prudential regulations capable of ensuring financial stability: the Basel III agreements. This paper tackles this issue by investigating the impact of capital and liquidity ratios on financial stability for a sample of 1600 banks from 23 countries over the 2005-2016 period. We pay particular attention to the nonlinear character of this potential effect through the estimation of a polynomial model with interaction terms and a panel smooth transition regression. Distinguishing between different types of banks depending on their level of systemicity, we find evidence of a nonlinear effect of prudential ratios on financial stability: a low level of capital improves financial stability, but its effect tends to diminish for higher values. Finally, we show that bank profitability is a significant determinant of financial stability.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Basel III ratios ; financial stability ; interaction effects ; Panel Smooth Transition Regression
2019-3
Mitigation strategies under the threat of solar radiation management
Fabien Prieur, Martin Quaas, Ingmar Schumacher
- Abstract
- The option to tackle climate change by means of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is mostly thought to reduce efforts of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Here we hypothesize that (i) a unilateral threat to employ SRM can induce players to commit to strategies with increased mitigation effort compared to what would be observed at the Nash equilibrium in emission strategies only and (ii) there exists a way to share the burden imposed by commitment to avoid SRM that Pareto dominates an alternative that would involve too high current emission levels then followed by future SRM deployment. To study these hypotheses we develop a two-region, two-stage, two-period game where regions choose mitigation and SRM. While SRM targets regional climate preferences, in line with current scientific evidence its deployment leads to uncertain damages on the other region. We first develop the general theory and then study a more specific linear-quadratic application. Finally we calibrate the model to real-world data and find that hypothesis (ii) holds for plausible values.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- climate change, solar radiation management, heterogeneous damages, strategic interaction, commitment
2019-2
Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies
Sarah Mouabbi, Jean-Guillaume Sahuc
- Abstract
- We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s unconventional monetary policies using a DSGE model which includes a set of shadow interest rates. Extracted from the yield curve, these shadow rates provide unconstrained measures of the overall stance of monetary policy. Counterfactual analyses show that, without unconventional measures, the euro area would have suffered (i) a substantial loss of output since the Great Recession and (ii) a period of deflation from mid-2015 to early 2017. Specifically, year-on-year inflation and GDP growth would have been on average about 0.61% and 1.09% below their actual levels over the period 2014Q1-2017Q2, respectively.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Unconventional monetary policy, shadow policy rate, DSGE model, euro area.
2019-1
Fostering, Child Welfare, and Ethnic Cultural Values
Eliane El Badaoui, Lucia Mangiavacchi
- Abstract
- This article examines the interdependence of the fostering status of children, their school attendance and their labour supply in host families in Niger. We appreciate the ethnic cultural heritage of fostering, a phenomenon assumed to be rooted in the long run and transmitted along generations. The focus is on the effects of fostering on children's outcomes. We specify a simultaneous equations model with three outcomes for children (school attendance, hours of market work and hours of domestic work) and a treatment variable (fostering). The results show that foster children are more likely to attend school and to have longer hours of domestic work than biological children. Importantly, we find evidence of a schooling fostering for boys and a domestic fostering for girls. All in all, ethnic inherited values and behaviours are found to have an important role in perpetuating fostering institution and on children's welfare.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Child fostering; Culture; Child labour; Domestic work; Schooling; Niger
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