Photo Antonia Lopez Villavicencio

ANTONIA LOPEZ VILLAVICENCIO

PROFESSEUR(E)

Research interests

  • arrow_right Econométrie appliquée
  • arrow_right Economie internationale
  • arrow_right Macroéconomie
  • arrow_right Macroéconomie financière
  • arrow_right Finance internationale

Research group

    Macroéconomie internationale, finance, matières premières et économétrie financière

Contact

HAL

2024-4

Global Value Chains and Productivity: Causal Evidence for Firms Worldwide

Ivan Ledezma, Antonia Lopez Villavicencio

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Abstract
We study how global value chain participation causally affects productivity at the firm level. We utilize an extensive dataset encompassing firms from countries of different income levels over the period 2006-2021, together with matching approaches to control for endogeneity. Our primary finding underscores that the simultaneous coordination of importing and exporting activities within a single firm leads to an increase in labor productivity. Positive effects on TFP are significant only within the subgroup of firms in the less developed countries and those operating in low-tech industries. Increased capital intensity appears as a plausible explanation of labor productivity gains. We also find higher innovation propensity, quality enhancements, and labor-cost reductions for two-way traders as channels through which GVC participation influences firms' technical change. The lower responsiveness of TFP in advanced countries can be explained by the different nature of technical change for firms operating closer to the world technology frontier.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Global value chains, productivity, firm, development, endogeneity
2023-19

Information Shocks in the U.S. and Asset Mispricing in Emerging Economies

Antonia Lopez Villavicencio, Marc Pourroy

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Abstract
We explore whether U.S. monetary policy shocks can lead to create booms and busts of asset prices in emerging economies. Using impulse response function obtained from local projections, we show that the Fed's announcements of a tighter monetary policy lead to strong under-valuations of equity markets in EMEs. However, the information content in a tightening announcement lead to over-valuation in EME's asset prices. We attribute these differences to perceptions of signalling a better-than-expected economic outlook. Finally, we show that real integration influences more than financial integration the propagation of communication shocks.
Mot(s) clé(s)
emerging markets, asset mispricing, monetary policy, information channel, local projections
2021-12

Macroeconomic effects of EU value chain participation

Mariam Camarero, Antonia Lopez Villavicencio, Cecilio Tamarit

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Abstract
In this paper we analyze some macroeconomic effects derived from the participation of EU countries in global and regional value chains over the period 1990-2019. By employing local projections, we show that the impact of value chain participation on economic performance depends crucially on the country's position in the production chain. While backward participation is linked to better economic performance, forward participation leads to declining domestic output and a rise in unemployment. Moreover, we find evidence of important heterogeneity among EU countries, with peripheral and CEE countries being more sensitive to shocks in the participation indicators. Our results are robust to different controls.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Global Value Chains, EU; local projections, VAR
2019-26

The mental health consequences of globalisation

Maria Cervini, Antonia Lopez Villavicencio

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Abstract
Micro evidence for employed workers has led to the claim that globalisation, i.e. higher trade exposure, has far-reaching implications for mental health problems in some advanced countries. Evidence for other aspects of globalisation at the cross-country level is scarce. Using information on depression and anxiety, combined with proxies for different dimensions of globalisation, we undertake a detail analysis in a large sample of countries. We go beyond the simple impact of globalisation in observable labor market outcomes and show that more globalized counties experience higher mental distress than less globalized countries. In particular, we show that even though trade globalisation reduces mental health disorders at the country-level, the positive influence of social globalisation prevails over the economic dimension. Hence, our results complement documented consequences of globalisation on mental health outcomes by showing that factors involving cross-border movement of cultures and openness of media play a major role.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Mental Health, globalisation, anxiety, depression
2019-16

Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Accounting for changes in the Eurozone trade structure

Antonia Lopez Villavicencio, Valérie Mignon

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Abstract
This paper assesses whether the emergence of new trading partners (i.e., China and Eastern Europe) as suppliers reduces the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in Eurozone countries which differ regarding their external exposure. Using bilateral data on import prices at the two-digit sector level, we find that (i) pass-through is complete in many cases, (ii) ERPT from China is higher than from the United States, and (iii) there is no compelling evidence of a generalized link between ERPT and the increasing integration of some emerging markets in European imports. We also show that the launch of the single currency has not provoked a sufficient change in the part of trade exposed to exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, has not affected the pass-through. Overall, the trend of liberalization in new players' markets has not altered the competitive environment such as to induce exporters of other countries to absorb exchange rate depreciations.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Exchange rate pass-through; import prices; China; Eastern Europe; Eurozone
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