WORKING PAPERS 2025

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2025-12

François Perroux's corporatist price control theory: the roots of a structuring critique of neoclassical economics

Basile Clerc

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Abstract
This article seeks to highlight a previously overlooked theoretical continuity in François Perroux's trajectory, linking his "corporatist period" to his post-war writings. We demonstrate that a key aspect of François Perroux's critique of neoclassical economics, which persisted through his efforts to revise general equilibrium theory in the 1970s, originates from his corporatist economic model developed in the 1930s. This core idea can be summarized as follows: the concentrated nature of capitalist structures makes the economic equilibrium indeterminate, necessitating and justifying the intervention of the state to regulate both prices and wages. We argue that the convergence of Perroux's critique of neoclassical economics and his corporatist theorization reaches its peak in a text published during the Liberation of France, a time of profound intellectual transformation for the author. The theoretical elements developed on this occasion permeate the whole of his later works, which must therefore be reinterpreted in the light of his early corporatist writings. Finally, by exhuming a significant yet entirely overlooked theory, this article contributes to the development of a historical perspective on microeconomic theories of price control.
Mot(s) clé(s)
François Perroux; price control; neoclassical economics; corporatism
2025-11

L’impact de l’indépendance sur le développement des petites économies insulaires et côtières : une approche par la méthode des doubles différences

Aurélien Saïdi, Alexandra Schaffar, Francisco Serranito

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Abstract
This study examines the causal relationship between political independence and economic development in small islands and coastal territories using a difference-in-differences methodology with heterogeneous treatment effects. Contrary to the prevailing consensus in the literature that associates independence with inferior economic performance, our results reveal a more nuanced dynamics. While the transition to independence initially triggers a significant contraction in GDP per capita (–5% in the year of independence, followed by an additional –8% the subsequent year), this adverse effect dissipates within three years. Our cohort-specific analysis unveils substantial heterogeneity in post-independence trajectories. Some territories, such as Singapore and Seychelles, experienced remarkable growth following independence, while others faced significant economic decline. This heterogeneity challenges both traditional models of island development: it refutes the assumption that political dependence is necessary for economic success, while also questioning the view that pre-existing economic divergences solely determine political status choices. Implementation of a robust difference-in-differences framework with heterogeneous treatment timing, following recent methodological advances, ensures our findings’ validity under various identification assumptions. Overall, our results suggest that independence’s impact fundamentally depends on idiosyncratic factors that determine a territory’s capacity to transform political autonomy into economic development opportunities.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Economic Development, Diff-in-diff, Heterogeneous treatment, Political dependence, Small Islands Developing States (SIDS)
2025-10

Traditional Views, Egalitarian Views, and the Child Penalty: Insights from Immigrant Populations in France

Dominique Meurs, Pierre Pora

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Abstract
This study uses French survey data on immigrants to explore whether the child penalty is driven by traditional gender attitudes. The dataset includes individual perceptions of gender inequality and women's bodily autonomy, alongside fertility histories and labor market trajectories for immigrants living in France during 2019–2020. While women holding more traditional views are less likely to participate in the labor force overall, the child penalty does not appear to be larger for this group. Interestingly, the child penalty accounts for a significantly greater share of the gender gap in labor force participation among those with more egalitarian views. Comparative analyses across immigrants’ upbringing environments and countries of origin further support a causal interpretation of the absence of a relationship between traditional gender attitudes and the child penalty.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Gender, Child penalty, Immigrants, Attitudes, Values
2025-9

Is growth at risk from natural disasters ? Evidence from quantile local projections

Nabil Daher

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Abstract
This paper investigates the nonlinear impact of natural disasters on economic growth. Using the Quantile Local Projections (QLP) method on a panel of 68 developing countries over the period 1970-2021, we find that natural disasters have an overall nonlinear effect across economic states. In particular, while some disasters exacerbate economic downturns in low-income countries, high-income developing ones tend to exhibit more resilience to adverse impacts. We argue that the state-dependent effects of natural disasters may be influenced by business cycle phases and structural economic weaknesses, such as sectoral interdependencies and limited economic diversification, especially in low-income countries.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Natural Disasters, Quantile Local Projections, Developing Economics
2025-8

Monetary Policy and Life Insurance Profitability: Bancassurance's Edge in a Low-Yield World

Pablo Aguilar Perez

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Abstract
This paper examines the effects of monetary policy on the profitability of life insurers during the prolonged low-interest-rate period, leveraging a novel dataset of 31 leading French insurers from 2009 to 2018. We classify insurers into three business models—bancassurers, traditional S.A insurers, and mutual insurers—and provide new evidence on the mechanisms driving performance differences. Bancassurers demonstrate consistently higher profitability levels and expanding market shares over the period. This advantage is driven by their ability to mitigate the "income channel" effect of low rates by rapidly reducing guaranteed yields offered to policyholders more effectively than their peers, thereby sustaining profitability and gaining market share throughout the low-yield environment. We also examine how insurers’ portfolio strategies shape profitability in this context. Specifically, we explore the "hunt-for-yield" effect by analyzing the impact of higher equity allocations compared to bonds, the shift toward greater reliance on unit-linked policies, and the role of capital adequacy structures. Our findings reveal substantial heterogeneity in how different types of insurers adapt to monetary policy, illustrating the diverse effects of prolonged monetary easing on non-bank financial intermediaries.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Low interest rate environment, Insurance profitability, Monetary policy, Financial stability
2025-7

Slaying the Undead: How Long Does It Take to Kill Zombie Papers?

Marc Joëts, Valérie Mignon

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Abstract
This article examines the persistent impact of zombie papers, i.e., retracted or destined-for-retraction publications that continue to influence academic discourse through ongoing citations despite their discredited status. Relying on a large sample of 25,480 retracted research articles over the 1923-2023 period, we introduce a novel methodological framework combining survival analysis with the innovative Zombie Population Decay Dynamics (ZPDD) model, a theoretical approach designed to simulate the long-term persistence and decay of zombie papers under various editorial interventions. We identify key factors affecting retraction timing and zombie papers' persistence. Serious misconduct, such as data fabrication, significantly delays retractions, while geographic disparities exacerbate inefficiencies, with certain regions facing prolonged processes. Journal practices, such as open-access versus subscription-based models, also influence retraction dynamics, with subscription-based journals exhibiting faster corrective actions. Developing a mathematical optimization framework derived from our ZPDD model, we determine the most effective mix of editorial policies while balancing practical feasibility and intervention intensity. The findings highlight data transparency as the most impactful intervention for reducing zombie papers' persistence, followed by enhanced plagiarism detection and reproducibility measures, such as pre-registration and replication studies. Overall, a well-balanced combination of targeted editorial interventions can substantially accelerate retraction processes and limit the detrimental influence of zombie papers on academic discourse.
Mot(s) clé(s)
scientific retraction, zombie papers, survival analysis, accelerated failure time model, editorial policies
2025-6

Farmers' preferences toward organic certification scheme: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment in Northern Vietnam

Kene Boun My, Quang-Huy Nguyen, Phu Nguyen-Van, Thi Kim Cuong Pham, Anne Stenger, Tuyen Tiet, Nguyen To-The

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Abstract
This study uses a quantitative approach based on a discrete choice experiment with 586 farmers in Northern Vietnam to measure how representative market and non-market factors could influence their preferences for participating in organic certification schemes. Our results suggest that a sales contract with either flexible or guaranteed prices is a significant incentive to explain their willingness to pay higher production costs to be involved in organic certification schemes. Furthermore, providing farmers with training and technical support is also essential to motivate farmers toward organic agriculture. Finally, neighborhood cooperatives and formal leaders' participation in organic certification could encourage farmers to convert to organic agriculture.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Discrete choice experiment; Organic certification; Farmers' preferences; Leadership; Role of network
2025-5

A General Equilibrium Approach to Carbon Permit Banking

Loick Dubois, Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, Gauthier Vermandel

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Abstract
We study the general equilibrium effects of carbon permit banking during the transition to a climate-neutral economy by 2050. To this end, we develop an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, in which the business sector is regulated by a generic emission trading system (ETS). Firms are authorized to transfer unused permits from one period to the next (banking), but the reverse direction (borrowing) is prohibited. Allowing for positive banking gives firms the opportunity to smooth their permit demand along the business cycle. Applications inspired by recent European Union-ETS regulations underscore the critical role of permit banking in shaping policy outcomes. For example, the 2023 cap reform would result in a more significant reduction in both permit banking and carbon emissions, as well as a 40% to 50% increase in the carbon price compared to pre-reform projections, without substantial additional GDP loss by 2060. Importantly, forgetting about permit banking when assessing cap policies would lead to both a significant underestimation of the total macroeconomic effects and an inaccurate representation of the carbon emission trajectory.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Emission trading systems, cap policies, carbon permit banking, environmental real business cycle model, occasionally-binding constraints, nonlinear estimation
2025-4

The Impact of Climate Change on Yield Growth and the Mitigating Role of Irrigation in the Corn Belt

Michaël Guillossou

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Abstract
This paper examines how climate change and adaptation through irrigation have affected corn yield growth within the US Corn Belt since the 1960s. We combine corn yield and irrigation data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service with ERA5-Land gridded temperature data. We adopt an augmented long-difference framework to i) assess the impact of extreme temperature trends from 1960 to 2023 on corn yield growth in Corn Belt counties since the 1960s and ii) estimate the potential of irrigation to mitigate this impact. Our findings reveal significant upward trends in extreme degree-days (EDD) above 29◦C across more than half of Corn Belt counties. We highlight that the varying magnitudes of these trends, alongside differential adoption rates of irrigation between counties, have played a crucial role in explaining the disparities in long-term corn yield trends within the region. Specifically, we show that irrigation offsets about 80% of the adverse impact of EDD on corn yields. Based on a counterfactual analysis, we find that current corn yields are about 6.5% lower, on average, than they would be in a non-climate change scenario.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Climate Change, Yields, Irrigation, Corn Belt
2025-3

How do geopolitical interests affect financial markets reaction to international institution projects?

Hugo Oriola, Jamel Saadaoui

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Abstract
This research investigates the intricate dynamics between the catalytic and inhibitory effects of projects financed by international institutions and geopolitical interests. Thanks to the construction of a monthly dataset, we first examine the impact of the approval of a project financed by one out of five international institutions on the global macroeconomic situation on non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). In particular, we study the potential catalytic effect or inhibitory effect of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Investment Bank, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. We underline the existence of a catalytic effect and an inhibitory effect in non-permanent members of the UNSC that can significantly impact national macroeconomic situations in a positive or negative way. Second, we contribute to the literature by emphasizing the importance of the country's geopolitical preferences in the existence and nature of the catalytic effect. We measure these geopolitical preferences through the distance between one country's ideal point in the United Nations General Assembly and the ideal points of UNSC permanent members session after session.
Mot(s) clé(s)
International institutions, United Nations, Geopolitical preferences, Catalytic effect, Inhibitory effect
2025-2

Exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences

Hugo Oriola, Jamel Saadaoui

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Abstract
This research provides novel empirical evidence about the exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences using an unbalanced panel of 153 countries observed from February 1993 to December 2019. For elected temporary members of the UN Security Council, the IMF loans cause a sizeable appreciation in the exchange rate vis-à-vis the USD of around 2 percent at the 12-month horizon, after controlling for institutional quality. ADB loans cause an appreciation of around 0.25 percent at the 4-month horizons. These effects are stronger when the geopolitical distance with China is higher, indicating a higher credibility for these loans.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Exchange rates, Geopolitical preferences, International organization loans, Institutional quality, Local projections
2025-1

The New Keynesian Climate Model

Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, Frank Smets, Gauthier Vermandel

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Abstract
Climate change confronts central banks with two inflationary challenges: climateflation and greenflation. We investigate their implications for monetary policy by developing and estimating a tractable nonlinear New Keynesian Climate model featuring climate damages and mitigation policies for the global economy. We find that mitigation policies aligned with the Paris Agreement result in higher, more persistent inflation than laissez-faire policies. Central banks can attenuate this inflationary pressure by accounting for the rising natural rate of interest, at the cost of lower GDP during the transition. This short-term trade-off ensures long-term macroeconomic stability resulting from a net-zero emission world.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Climate change, inflation, monetary policy, E-DSGE model, Bayesian estimation, stochastic growth
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