WORKING PAPERS 2010

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2010-28

The determinants of growth for SMEs. A longitudinal study from French manufacturing firms

Nadine Levratto, Luc Tessier, Messaoud Zouikri

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Abstract
This paper investigates the structural and strategic determinants of firm growth using a unique data set for French firms employing between 10 and 250 employees in 1997 and active over the period 1997-2007. Starting from the idea that firm growth is not only a random process but that some regularities may be emphasized, we consider a growth model that combines different elements presented as determinant in the firm’s growth path. Results based on two families of multinomial logit model do not confirm the conclusions about the exclusive role played by the previous size. In addition, thanks to the references to legal structure, market share and localization, one observes these variables shape strongly the individual growth path. However environment and structural elements are not the only elements to focus on in order to provide an explanation of the employment growth rate at the firm level. Strategic factors matter too. In particular we demonstrate the crucial role of labor costs and financial structure as explanatory variables of firm growth.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Firm growth; SMEs; Gibrat’s law; French manufacturing; multinomial logistic regression
2010-27

The Impact of Governance on European Football Leagues’ Competitiveness

Bastien Drut, Gaël Raballand

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Abstract
The sharp increase in TV broadcasting rights and the liberalization of the transfer market has completely reshaped the balance of power in European football, both within and between the different leagues. A trade-off has emerged with leagues whose teams perform well in the Champions League suffering financial inequality and clubs in financial difficulty, while those leagues which are less successful in the Champions League enjoy relative financial equality and less debt. The English, Italian and Spanish leagues are in the first category while the French and German leagues are in the second category. Based on interviews with several stakeholders, this paper demonstrates that this is mainly explained by the extent of financial regulation, which depends on leagues' and clubs' governance. It also discusses the role of UEFA and assesses the impact of the introduction of the financial fair-play rule.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Ligue Française de Football; Deutsche Fußball Liga; football clubs; competitiveness; governance
2010-26

On the impact of US subsidies on world cotton prices: a meta-analysis approach

David Guerreiro

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Abstract
Despite the vast literature dealing with the impact of the subsidies on world cotton prices, there is no consensus regarding the quantification of these effects. The aim of this paper is to contribute to this literature through the implementation of a meta-regression analysis. This methodology allows us to: (i) identify the main sources of heterogeneity between the primary studies, (ii) give some tracks to improve the modeling, (iii) provide a reliable quantification of the removal of subsidies on world cotton prices. Relying on the estimation of various models to derive robust results, our findings show that a withdrawal of US subsidies would increase the world cotton price by around 10%.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Meta-Regression Analysis; Mixed Effect Sizes; Cotton; Subsidies; Agriculture
2010-25

L. Walras and C. Menger: Two ways on the path of modern monetary theory

Andrés Alvarez, Vincent Bignon

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Abstract
This paper shows that modern monetary theory can be better understood through the differences between Menger and Walras. Since the 1980s attempts to establish coherent microfoundations for monetary exchange have brought Menger's theory of the origin of money to the forefront and sent walrasian methods to the backstage. However, during the first decade of the XXIth century models inspired on mengerian monetary theory, mainly represented by the search monetary approach, are trying to reintroduce neowalrasian elements. This paper aims at clarifying the main theoretical implications of this movement, through an analysis of the Menger‐Walras divide on money. This divide allows us to show new proof of the deep theoretical differences among the so‐called marginalist authors and of the richness of this historical period as a source for modern economics.
Mot(s) clé(s)
2010-24

Floating European football clubs in the stock market

Michel Aglietta, Wladimir Andreff, Bastien Drut

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Abstract
Since the first initial public offering of a European football (soccer) club in 1983, more than forty other clubs have experienced a venture in the stock market. In this paper, it is investigated how much relevant and successful these experiences of listing and floating football clubs at the stock exchange have been. First, by showing that investing in the Dow Jones StoXX Football index is of little attractiveness in the perspective of an investor's efficient overall asset allocation. Then in examining the determinants of a football club's fair value and the relationship between stock performances and sporting results. Finally, an approach (alternative to the Anglo-American model of capitalism) of corporate governance, based on the concept of a soft budget constraint, is applied to European football clubs taking stake of their lasting financial deficits and debts. This alternative theoretical approach paves the way for an empirical testing of a vicious circle between negotiating higher TV rights revenues and player wage inflation.
Mot(s) clé(s)
2010-23

Reproduction and temporary disequilibrium: a Classical approach

Carlo Benetti, Christian Bidard, Edith Klimovsky, Antoine Rebeyrol

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Abstract
We build a bisector reproduction model with classical features in which the capitalists aim at maximizing accumulation of their profits. At variance with gravitation models, it is assumed that they invest their profits in their own industry. Their plans are based on actual productions and expected prices. Effective prices and effective allocations of resources are determined by a market-clearing mechanism. A simple law on the formation of expectations allows us to define the dynamics of disequilibria, which let appear endogenous self-sustained fluctuations, around a long-run path. The long-run rate of growth and the amplitude of the fluctuations depend on the initial conditions.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Classical Reproduction, Market prices, Disequilibrium, Growth, Cycle
2010-22

Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon : What do the U.S. Secular Data Say ?

Georges Prat

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Abstract
An ex-ante equity risk premium is the difference between the expected return of a risky asset at time t for a given future time horizon and an equivalent maturity risk-free interest rate. Using annual US secular data from 1871 to 2008, this study aims to model simultaneously the measures and the explanations of ex-ante equity risk premia for two polar horizons: the one period ahead horizon (i.e. the "short term" premium) and the infinite time horizon (i.e. the "long term" premium). Expectations being represented by traditional adaptive processes, large disparities in the dynamics of the two premia are evidenced. According to the conditional CAPM, each premium is at time t explained by the product of the price of risk by the expected variance of returns, these two magnitudes being horizon dependant. The expected variances depend on the past values of the centered squared returns (we found 5 and 8 years for the one year and the infinite horizon, respectively). For each horizon, the price of risk is determined by a spread of interest rates capturing economic factors of uncertainty and by an unobservable variable determined according to the kalman filter methodology (i.e. a state variable). The state variables are supposed to capture the influence of hidden variables and of non directly measurable psychological effects. The model gives a valuable representation of the "short term" and "long term" premia.
Mot(s) clé(s)
equity risk premium, time horizon
2010-21

On the relationship between forward energy prices: a panel data cointegration approach

Marc Joëts

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Abstract
On the relationship between forward energy prices: a panel data cointegration approach
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the long-term relationship between the forward prices of crude oil and domestic fuel (FOD) on the period from August 2003 to April 2010. To this end, we rely on a panel data setting by considering a sample of 36 maturities for the forward prices. Using panel cointegration tests, our results show that oil and fuel prices are characterized by a strong homogeneous long-term equilibrium relationship for several maturities. Estimating a panel error correction model, we find that FOD prices are influenced by oil prices variations on both the short and the long run. The existence of a unique equilibrium model for all maturities may have important implications for financial arbitrage strategies based on energy prices relationships.
Mot(s) clé(s)
forward energy prices, oil, domestic fuel, panel cointegration
2010-20

Case Study of Three German Banks Stuck in the Subprime Crisis

Peixin ZHANG

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Abstract
This paper is aimed at finding banks' destabilizing behaviors that explain why the impact of the crisis is so serious in the banking system. By comparing three German banks stuck in the crisis, I find that: I) the leverage is a common destabilizing factor and, ii) the banks were highly interconnected to other financial institutions and had a large maturity mismatch were more seriously affected by the crisis.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Systemic crisis, Leverage, Maturity mismatch, Banking regulation
2010-19

Maximin, Viability and Sustainability

Luc Doyen, Vincent Martinet

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Abstract
The maximin criterion defines the highest utility level which can be sustained in an intergenerational equity perspective. The viability approach characterizes all the economic trajectories sustaining a given, not necessarily maximal, utility level. In this paper, we exhibit the strong links between maximin and viability: We show that the value function of the maximin problem can be obtained in the viability framework via a static optimization problem under constraints. This result allows us to extend the maximin approach beyond optimality and characterize the sustainability of other economic trajectories. In particular, we show how the maximin value and viability kernel can be combined as sustainability indicators along any economic trajectory. Attention is especially paid to positive net investment at maximin prices, which is shown to be necessary to maintain the productive capacities of the economy. The Dasgupta-Heal-Solow model illustrates the assertions.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Sustainability; Maximin; Viability; Dynamics; Optimality
2010-18

The Economics of Badmouthing: Libel Law and the Underworld of the Financial Press in France before World War I

Vincent Bignon, Marc Flandreau

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Abstract
This article analyzes the economics of “badmouthing” in the context of the pre-1914 French capital market. We argue that badmouthing was a means through which racketeering journals sought to secure property rights over issuers’ reputation. We provide a theoretical study of the market setup that emerged to deal with such problems, and we test our predictions using new evidence from contemporary sources.
Mot(s) clé(s)
2010-17

On Legal Cooperation and the Dynamics of Legal Convergence

Bertrand Crettez, Bruno Deffains, Olivier Musy

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Abstract
In this paper, we study the dynamics of legal convergence and the comparison between the different instruments of legal convergence based on cooperative strategies (i.e., harmonization and unification) or not. To study these questions we use a model with two nation-states which is inspired in part by that used in Carbonara and Parisi (2008) where preferences of each nation-state are such that it is costly to change the law, but it is also costly to have a different legal system from the other nation-state. We show that legal unification could be achieved in the long-run through small step by step changes despite the existence of huge harmonization costs in the short run. We also show that legal cooperation is not always necessary to achieve legal convergence.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Law-and-Economics; Legal Convergence; Legal harmonization; Legal Uniformization
2010-16

Implied Risk-Neutral probability Density functions from options prices: A comparison of estimation methods

Rihab Bedoui, Haykel Hamdi

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Abstract
This paper compares the goodness-of-fit of eight option-based approaches used to extract risk-neutral probability density functions from a high-frequency CAC 40 index options during a normal and troubled period. Our findings show that the kernel estimator generates a strong volatility smile with respect to the moneyness, and the kernel smiles shape varies with the chosen time to maturity. The mixture of log-normals, Edgeworth expansion, hermite polynomials, jump diffusion and Heston models are more in line and have heavier tails than the log-normal distribution. Moreover, according to the goodness of fit criteria we compute, the jump diffusion model provides a much better fit than the other models on the period just-before the crisis for relatively short maturities. However, during this same period, the mixture of log-normal models performs better for more than three month maturity. Furthermore, in the troubled period and the period just-after the crisis, we find that semi-parametric models are the methods with the best accuracy in fitting observed option prices for all maturities with a minimal difference towards the mixture of log-normals model.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Risk-neutral density; mixture of log-normal distributions; Edgeworth expansions; Hermite polynomials; tree-based methods; kernel regression; Heston’s stochastic volatility model; jump diffusion model
2010-15

Equilibre et possibilité de crises dans le modèle de reproduction élargie de Marx

Carlo Benetti, Alain Béraud, Edith Klimovsky, Antoine Rebeyrol

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Abstract
In the numerical examples used by Marx to study the reproduction of social capital, the economy reaches a steady growth path in only two periods. This surprising outcome has been interpreted by Marx’s readers as a property of a model which excludes any sort of economic crisis. This paper shows that this is not the case. Depending on the proportion between sectors and on the accumulation rate in the sector producing the means of production, two kinds of crises can occur. Following a suggestion of Marx, we emphasize the analysis of the physical conditions of reproduction and, on such a basis, we determine the critical proportions beyond which a crisis occurs. If, as in Marx, commodities are exchanged at their labor value, the critical proportions will be changed.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Marx; reproduction; crisis
2010-14

A factor-augmented probit model for business cycle analysis

Christophe Bellégo, Laurent Ferrara

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Abstract
Dimension reduction of large data sets has been recently the topic of interest of many research papers dealing with macroeconomic modelling. Especially dynamic factor models have been proved to be useful for GDP nowcasting or short-term forecasting. In this paper, we put forward an innovative factor-augmented probit model in order to analyze the business cycle. Factor estimation is carried either by standard statistical methods or by allowing a richer dynamic behaviour. An application is provided on euro area data in order to point out the ability of the model to detect recessions over the period 1974-2008.
Mot(s) clé(s)
2010-13

Security of supply in the European Gas Market A model-based analysis

Ibrahim Abada, Olivier Massol

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Abstract
This paper introduces a general static Cournot-game model to study the Natural Gas market, taking into account disruption risks from suppliers. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links -by means of long-term contracts- local producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to foreign retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Thanks to short-run demand functions, we are able to introduce disruption costs to be paid to the consumers should disruption occur. First we mathematically develop our general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies -under iso-elasticity assumptions- for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 80 to explain the supply choices of Germany, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of Natural Gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependant on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some thought-provoking conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough.
Mot(s) clé(s)
security of supply, natural gas markets modelling
2010-12

Sovereign Wealth Funds as domestic investors of last resort during crises

Hélène Raymond

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Abstract
Usual definitions of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) put emphasis on their foreign investments. But after September 2008, some Sovereign Wealth Funds refrained from foreign investments and intervened to support their home economies during the crisis. We show that the interventions of Sovereign Wealth Funds as domestic “investors of last resort” are far from marginal and that they are not a passing innovation of the last global crisis. We review first the cases of interventions of SWFs as “shareholders of last resort” and differentiate interventions targeted on banks, from more general interventions designed to support non financial firms. We also run some regressions to quantify the impact of Gulf SWFs’ interventions on their home Stock returns and volatility. We find that the interventions of the Kuwaiti SWF were unsuccessful, whereas the Qatari intervention of October 2008 managed to rise effectively the Stock market return in the short run. We then turn to the interventions of SWFs as “lenders of last resort” and insurance funds against major crises. In some cases (Russia, 2009; Australia, 2007-2008) the lending by SWFs is targeted on the home banking sector. SWFs can provide medium term financing to ease the liquidity constraints of banks, whereas Central Banks’ loans are mostly at short term. But the intervention of Saudi Arabian SWF in 2008 was of a different kind, as the lending was targeted on non financial firms to make up for banks’ reluctance to lend and stimulate the economy. Lastly we discuss the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds as insurance funds against major crisis. SWFs may be used for government spending during crises or even intervene on Stock markets to counter speculative attacks, as was illustrated by the interventions of the Singaporean SWF GIC and of the HKMA.
Mot(s) clé(s)
2010-11

Analyse comparée de la productivité des firmes européennes à partir de données comptables: L'effet pays en cause

Denis Carré, Nadine Levratto, Messaoud Zouikri

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Abstract
This paper aims at measuring the productivity gap between firms located in six European countries over the period 1996-2007 and to provide some explanations of the observed differences. Our approach is original for two reasons. Firstly the value added and the productivity are valued from the BACH database that proposes harmonized balance sheets. Secondly, we take into account the influence of environment and institutional factors on the firms' performance thanks to the use of a fixed effects panel data model that allows to assess the unobserved heterogeneity in a sample. This analysis is made at the national level for the whole economy, for three industries (manufacturing industry, construction and services) and for three groups of size (small, medium and large). The results allow to highlight the existence of different productive configurations attested by the different levels of firms' productivity according to size or industry. They also point out a «country effect» that embeds a set of organizational and institutional elements besides production factors.
Mot(s) clé(s)
productivity, BACH database, country effects
2010-10

The Uncertain Relationship between Corruption and Growth in Developing Countries: Threshold Effects and State Effectiveness

Christian Milelli, Alice Nicole Sindzingre

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Abstract
In the literature of development economics, corruption is usually conceived as detrimental to economic growth. This conventional wisdom, however, may be called into question. Many countries witnessed growth despite corruption, e.g., commodity-dependent and high-growth East Asian countries. The paper argues, through a comparison of Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, that the relationships between corruption and economic growth are difficult to demonstrate. It highlights two crucial factors that explain the lack of robustness of this relationship. Firstly, this lack of robustness stems from the methods of measurement, which are usually based on the building of indices, modelling and econometric techniques. These methods are inappropriate for a concept such as ‘corruption’, which refers to complex and heterogeneous phenomena that are difficult to subsume in a single and stable definition.
A second set of factors underlying the weakness of the relationship between corruption and growth is the dependence of causal processes on specific contexts. The effects of corrupt practices on an economy depend on its particular history, its economic structures, its political economy and types of institutions: for these reasons, they vary across countries and regions. Causal links between corruption and growth may exist, but they are non-linear and subject to threshold effects. Beyond certain thresholds, which are built by specific contexts (i.e., the combination of many contextual factors, political, economic, institutional), corruption phenomena can be detrimental to growth; before reaching these thresholds, the impact of corruption on growth may be limited. These thresholds can be assessed only ex post: they cannot be measured ex ante, as they precisely depend on contexts that vary across space, countries and history. In some contexts, economic and political factors may reinforce each other, e.g. corruption, political instability, economic distortions and vulnerability, such as commodity-based market structures. This results in ‘low equilibria’ that combine low growth and pervasive corruption, and thresholds, which, once low equilibria are stabilised, it is very difficult to get out from under (‘poverty traps’). In other contexts, these factors may all exist. They remain separated, however; corruption does not combine with other economic and political factors and is contained, which makes it possible for countries not to fall into ‘lower’ equilibria.
The state is here the core entity able to prevent the reciprocal reinforcement of corruption and other economic or political structures - and hence the formation of poverty traps -, and to make corruption subservient to growth objectives. This state capacity that can confine and control corruption, which exists in some countries but not in others, is a key factor in the differences in impacts of corruption on growth.
Mot(s) clé(s)
corruption, growth, political economy, Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia
2010-9

Déréglementer la profession d’avocat ? Les apories de l’analyse économique

Camille Chaserant, Sophie Harnay

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Abstract
In keeping with the wider debate on the liberalisation of regulated professions in Europe, this paper is a critical introduction to the economics of regulation applied to the lawyer’s profession. Resting on traditional public economics and industrial economics literature, this literature prove itself to be dated. Then, it does not bring any innovation from the analyses on the deregulation of traditional goods’ markets and are out of real practical reach. It induces conflicting theoretical proposals that empirical studies do not allow to settle once and for all. Moreover, attention has been fully focalized on the question of either deregulating the profession or maintaining its regulation. This occults the issue on the identity of the regulator: should the profession being self-regulated or not?
Mot(s) clé(s)
regulation, profession, credence goods, asymmetrical information, self-regulation
2010-8

Complementarity Problems and General Equilibrium

Christian Bidard

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Abstract
A general equilibrium technique is used to show the existence of a solution to a nonlinear complementarity problem involving a copositive function.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Nonlinear complementarity problem; general equilibrium; copositivity.
2010-7

Risk and Sustainability: Is Viability that far from Optimality?

Michel De Lara, Luc Doyen, Vincent Martinet

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Abstract
Economic analysis addresses risk and long-term issues with dis-counted expected utility, focusing on optimality. Viability theory is based on sustainability constraints to be satis ed over time, focusing on feasibility. We make a bridge between these two approaches by showing that viability is equivalent to an array of degenerate inter-temporal optimization problems. This makes the approach more inter-pretable in economic terms, and especially regarding efficiency. First,the deterministic case is examined. A particular emphasis is put on the connections between the viability kernel and the minimal time of crisis function. Then, we present stochastic viability with the notions of viable scenario and maximal viability probability. We show that the maximal viability probability shares dynamic programming properties with optimal discounted expected utility. Thus, both exhibit time-consistency, which may be a basis for an axiomatization of criteria under risk and long run for public decision-making.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Sustainability; uncertainty; multicriteria; viability
2010-6

Exit routes in LBO projects

Ouidad Yousfi

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Abstract
The current paper studies the Financial structure in buyout firms under moral hazard due to unobservable efforts and an excessive risk-taking. The choice of the exit route may lead to agency conflicts between the entrepreneur and the LBO firm: the former may take very risky decisions to increase the probability of IPO exit. If the target is taking public, he gets a non transferable and private benefit. The opportunistic behavior of the entrepreneur decreases the probability of sale exit; the preferred exit route of the LBO firm. Without moral hazard, there are many ways to finance the project and the two agents exert strictly positive efforts. With moral hazard, the entrepreneur, the LBO firm and the bank must finance jointly the buyout. Financing the project through standard debt-equity contracts does not implement the first-best solution. Only a set of projects can be financed through both the LBO fund and the bank at the macroeconomic level. If the entrepreneur is not wealthy enough, her project is not undertaken.
Mot(s) clé(s)
LBO; moral hazard; excessive taking risk; financial structure; Exits
2010-5

Cooperation for Innovation in Payment Systems: The Case of Mobile Payments

Marc Bourreau, Marianne Verdier

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Abstract
In this paper, we study the development of mobile payments as an innovation in developed countries. In particular, we introduce five cooperation models that have emerged or could emerge between banks, mobile network operators, and payment systems, for the development of this new payment method. We also discuss the regulatory issues posed by the presence of mobile operators in the payments market.
Mot(s) clé(s)
mobile payments; payment systems; mobile banking; mobile commerce.
2010-4

A Family Hitch: Econometrics of the New and the Used Car Markets

Sylvain Prado

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Abstract
Everybody knows that the new cars of today are used cars of tomorrow and some people assume a competition between new and used markets. There are numerous, preconceived ideas and academic theories regarding the interactions between primary and secondary markets. To investigate the relations, we provide a macroeconomic analysis of the French, the British and the US car markets. We aim at answering the following questions. What are the interactions between the new and the second-hand car markets? Can we use the interactions to estimate the car prices of tomorrow? Our results indicate that the relations appear limited for France and the UK, whereas the US market faces a Scitoscky mechanism. Furthermore, they illustrate that the interrelations are not strong enough to fully explain and forecast market patterns.
Mot(s) clé(s)
second-hand market; automotive market; prices; causality; cyclical correlations; VAR
2010-3

Social responsibility and mean-variance portfolio selection

Bastien Drut

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Abstract
In theory, investors choosing to invest only in socially responsible entities restrict their investment universe and should thus be penalized in a mean-variance framework. When computed, this penalty is usually viewed as valid for all socially responsible investors. This paper shows however that the additional cost for responsible investing depends essentially on the investors’ risk aversion. Social ratings are introduced in mean-variance optimization through linear constraints to explore the implications of considering a social responsibility (SR) threshold in the traditional Markowitz (1952) portfolio selection setting. We consider optimal portfolios both with and without a risk-free asset. The SR-efficient frontier may take four different forms depending on the level of the SR threshold: a) identical to the non-SR frontier (i.e. no cost), b) only the left portion is penalized (i.e. a cost for high-risk-aversion investors only), c) only the right portion is penalized (i.e. a cost for low-risk aversion investors only) and d) the whole frontier is penalized (i.e. a positive cost for all the investors). By precisely delineating under which circumstances SRI is costly, those results help elucidate the apparent contradiction found in the literature about whether or not SRI harms diversification.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Socially Responsible Investment; Portfolio Selection; Mean-variance Optimization; Linear Constraint; Socially Responsible Ratings
2010-2

Les priorités de la prise en charge financière des soins. Une approche par la philosophie du besoin

Philippe Batifoulier, John Latsis, Jacques Merchiers

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Abstract
The concept of need plays an essential role in defining legitimate health inequalities. The debate on equity in healthcare policy has so far evolved independently of the philosophical discussions of need. This article draws on moral and political philosophy in order to develop a conception of need that goes beyond the current dichotomy between universal lists and individual preferences. We build on Wiggins’ and Hamiltons’ insights in an attempt to further develop an institutionalist health economics. Our contribution suggests that (against mainstream economics and the dominant trends imported from moral philosophy) needs must be determined by explicitly political processes of negotiation and conventions. We propose an institutionalist approach to needs that emphasises the role of social processes in creating and consolidating specific and situated healthcare needs.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Healthcare needs; Health care priority setting; Equity; Institutionalist economics; Philosophy of economics
2010-1

Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries

Audrey Allegret

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Abstract
We evaluate the growth effects of real effective exchange rate misalignments for the G20 countries over the period 1980-2006. To this end, we first estimate real effective equilibrium exchange rates relying on the behavioral approach BEER, from which misalignments are derived. Second, we estimate a dynamic panel growth model in which among the traditional determinants of growth, our measure of misalignments is included. Our findings put forward some important differences between developed and emerging economies. The magnitude of the misalignments is more pronounced in the case of emerging countries, and the speed of convergence towards the estimated equilibrium exchange rate is slower for industrialized ones. Turning to our growth regression analysis, we find that misalignments have a negative effect on the economic growth. As a consequence, an appropriate exchange rate policy would close the gap between real exchange rates and their equilibrium level.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate, Group of Twenty, Growth, Misalignments, Panel Cointegration
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