BLAISE GNIMASSOUN

Currency misalignments and exchange rate regimes in Latin American countries: a trade-off issue

Jorge Carrera, Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon, Romain Restout

Abstract

This paper conducts an in-depth empirical investigation on the impact of the exchange rate regime (ERR) on real currency misalignments in a panel of 17 Latin American countries over the 1970-2016 period. We consider explicitly the two dimensions of misalignments, size and persistence, and evaluate four different ERR classifications. We also pay attention to cross-sectional dependencies across countries that appear to be important in Latin America, and provide several robustness checks. Our main findings show that, although fixed ERR perform well in limiting the size of misalignments—and in reducing inflation and fiscal deficit—the disequilibria are more persistent. On the contrary, allowing for more flexibility reduces persistence but increases the size of misalignments. Overall, we show that Latin American countries face a crucial trade-off when they have to choose their ERR.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Latin American countries; Exchange rate regimes; Currency misalignments

The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances

Dramane Coulibaly, Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon

Abstract

Following the dynamics of globalization, international migration has increased dramatically since the 1990s. Given that these migrations may obscure the natural demographic structure of nations, they are likely to explain a significant part of global imbalances. This paper tackles this issue by investigating the role played by international migration in the dynamics of global imbalances. To this end, we rely on an overlapping generations model to derive the theoretical relationship between international migration and current account position. Through a series of robust estimates, we empirically investigate this relationship by relying on a panel of 157 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2014. Our results point to substantial effects of international migration. Specifically, we show that an increase in migration improves national savings and the current account balance in the destination country, while it has opposite impacts in the origin country. These effects are particularly pronounced in developing economies, and attenuated by migrants' remittances.

Mot(s) clé(s)

International migration, current account, global imbalances, remittances

Regional Integration: Do intra-African trade and migration improve income in Africa?

Blaise Gnimassoun

Abstract

Regional integration in Africa is a subject of great interest, but its impact on income has not been studied sufficiently. Using cross-sectional and panel estimations, this paper examines the impact of African integration on real per capita income in Africa. To do this, we consider intra-African trade and migration flows as quantitative measures reflecting the intensity of regional integration. In order to address the endogeneity concerns, we use a gravity-based IV strategy. Our results show that, from a long-term perspective, African integration has not been strong enough to generate a positive, significant and robust impact on real per capita income in Africa. However it appears to be significantly income-enhancing in the short term but only through inter-country migration. These results are robust to a wide range of specifications. Further analysis shows that economic diversification, financial development and the quality of transport and telecommunication infrastructure significantly affect the impact of intra-African trade on per capita income. Their improvement would make intra-African trade income-improving. Our policy recommendations have been formulated in this direction.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Income per Capita, Trade, International Migration, Economic Integration, Africa.

L'INTEGRATION DE L'UEMOA EST-ELLE PRO-CROISSANCE ?

Blaise Gnimassoun

Abstract

Economists are divided on the effect of exchange rate regimes on economic growth. In this article we study the particular case of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), which is one of the oldest monetary unions in the world resulting from French colonization. The objective is to study the impact of this integration on the economic growth of the region. To this end, we propose an empirical model of economic growth specific to the zone. We also address the problem of simultaneity bias between integration and growth relying on a gravity-based IV strategy. Our econometric results show that although West African regional integration is one of the most important in Africa, it has not led to significant economic growth in the Union. We propose measures to strengthen community transport infrastructures, which are essential to boost integration and its impact on the growth of We propose a massive investment plan in the community transport infrastructure, which is essential to strengthen integration and its impact on the growth of the area.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Regional integration, Monetary Union, Empirical growth model

THE DIASPORA AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA

C. John Anyanwu, Blaise Gnimassoun

Abstract

While the dominant collective belief asserts that brain drain is detrimental to the development of small economies, new studies hold the reverse view. This paper aims at studying the role of the African Diaspora in the economic development of Africa. It analyzes both the overall effect and the specific effect of emigration according to the level of education of emigrants. Then, through a deeper investigation, the paper analyzes the main channels through which the Diaspora influences economic development in Africa. The results show that the African Diaspora contributes positively, significantly and robustly to the improvement of real per capita income in Africa. These findings challenge the dominant collective belief since the higher the educational level of the emigrants, the greater the impact of the Diaspora on the level of economic development. Improvements in human capital, total factor productivity and democracy are effective transmission channels of this impact. Finally, the results show that while high-skilled emigrants have an overall greater impact on economic development and democracy, those with a low level of education contribute more to remittances to Africa. The establishment of an annual African Diaspora Summer School (ADSS) by the AfDB in partnership relevant international and regional stakeholders as a channel for the transfer of knowledge, technology and experience would further strengthen the role of the Diaspora in Africa’s economic development.

Mot(s) clé(s)

International migration, Economic development, Africa.

Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the effective transmission channel for Africa?

Dramane Coulibaly, Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon

Abstract

This paper investigates the growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and to migration by focusing on African countries. Relying on robust estimation techniques dealing with both endogeneity and omitted variables issues, our results put forward the importance of accounting for the type of the partner country. We find evidence that while trade between Africa and industrialized countries has a clear and robust positive impact on Africa's standards of living, trade with developing countries fails to be growth-enhancing. Moreover, our findings show that migration has no significant effect on per capita income in Africa regardless of the partner. Finally, exploring the trade openness transmission channel, we establish that the growth-enhancing effect of Africa's trade with industrialized countries mainly occurs through an improvement in total factor productivity.

Mot(s) clé(s)

F22, F4, O4, O55.

On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada

Blaise Gnimassoun, Marc Joëts, Tovonony Razafindrabe

Abstract

This study revisits the important relationship between oil prices and current account for oil exporting countries by paying particular attention to the time-varying nature of this link. To this end, we rely on an innovative method, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with sign restriction. We find that while an oil supply shock has non-significant impact on the current account, an oil demand shock has a positive and significant effect, which tends to increase over time. In addition, by studying the economic factors underlying the evolution of this relation, we show that the propensity to spend oil revenues on imports has a significant negative infuence on the pass-through of oil demand shocks on current account. However, a deepening of the domestic financial market and an accumulation of foreign exchange reserves have a significant positive effect on this relationship.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Current account, Oil prices, Time-varying parameters.

Determinants of corruption: Can we put all countries in the same basket?

Blaise Gnimassoun, Joseph Keneck Massil

Abstract

This paper aims to study the determinants of corruption by examining specificities relating to the region and the level of economic development. Starting from a cross-sectional study on 130 countries, we rely on the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to address the issue of model uncertainty and identify the key determinants of corruption according to the level of development and the region. Our results highlight the need for specific remedies in the fight against corruption given the regional, sociocultural, economic and institutional specificities. Indeed, the key determinants of corruption in sub-Saharan Africa are not the most relevant in the East Asia and Pacific region. Similarly, the most important determinants in developed countries are not the most worrying in developing countries.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Corruption, Political Economy, Public Economics, Bayesian Model Averaging, Cross-Sectional Models.

Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system

Blaise Gnimassoun

Abstract

This paper analyzes the link between the exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system focusing on the CFA zone. Having discussed and chosen an appropriate analytical framework, it addresses the issue of model uncertainty regarding the equilibrium exchange rate model before estimating currency misalignments. The results show that misalignments have a negative and asymmetric impact on the current account. While overvaluation of the CFA franc deteriorates the current account in the CFA zone, undervaluation does not improve it. Finally, our results highlight that the export concentration tends to exacerbate the overall negative impact of currency misalignments on the external balance. Thus, greater economic diversification is needed in an environment in which countries face both uncertainty in the terms of trade and uncertainty in the nominal exchange rate to conduct a proactive exchange rate policy.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Currency peg, Exchange rate misalignments, Current account, concentration of exports, Bayesian model averaging.

The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries

Blaise Gnimassoun

Abstract

One of the major current concerns of economic policy in developing countries is the choice of the appropriate exchange rate regime to consolidate and accelerate the pace of economic growth. This paper aims to investigate whether the choice of a country’s exchange rate regime may affect current account imbalances for sub-Saharan African economies. To this end, we first use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to address concerns about model uncertainty and identify the key determinants (fundamentals) of external balances. Then, estimating current account imbalances over the 1980-2012 period, we show that flexible exchange rate regimes are more effective in preventing such disequilibria. Consequently, candidates for membership of monetary unions should discuss widely the possible adjustment mechanisms before forming such unions; one potential measure being the sharing of external risks at regional level

Mot(s) clé(s)

Current account imbalances, Exchange rate regime, Bayesian model averaging, Sub-Saharan Africa.

How macroeconomic imbalances interact? Evidence from a panel VAR analysis

Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon

Abstract

This paper aims at investigating the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely current-account discrepancies (external imbalances), output gaps (internal imbalances), and exchange-rate misalignments. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR model for a sample of 22 industrialized countries over the 1980-2011 period. Our findings show that macroeconomic imbalances strongly interact through a causal relationship. We evidence that if current-account disequilibria threaten the stability of the global economy, their origin can be found in internal imbalances and exchange-rate misalignments: positive output-gap shocks as well as currency overvaluation deepen current-account deficits. In addition, while variations in external imbalances mainly result from exchange-rate misalignments in the euro area, they are mostly explained by output gaps for non-eurozone members.

Mot(s) clé(s)

global imbalances, current account, output gap, exchange-rate misalignments,panel VAR

Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?

Issiaka Coulibaly, Blaise Gnimassoun

Abstract

This paper aims at studying the sustainability of current accounts in Sub-Saharan Africa and determining whether this sustainability depends on the exchange rate regime. Relying on a formal theoretical framework and recent panel cointegration techniques, our findings show that current accounts have been globally sustainable in Sub-Saharan Africa countries over the 1980-2011 period. However, this sustainability has been lower for countries operating a fixed exchange rate regime or belonging to a monetary union. We also find that the difference in the level of sustainability could be explained by a higher persistence in the current account
adjustment of countries operating under rigid exchange rate regimes.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Current account, Exchange rate regime, Panel cointegration tests, Sub-Saharan Africa

Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments

Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon

Abstract

This paper aims at studying current-account imbalances by paying a particular attention to exchange-rate misalignments. We rely on a nonlinear model linking the persistence of current-account imbalances to the deviation of the exchange rate to its equilibrium value. Estimating a panel smooth transition regression model on a sample of 22 industrialized countries, we show that persistence of current-account imbalances strongly depends on currency misalignments. More specifically, while there is no persistence in cases of currency undervaluation or weak overvaluation, persistence tends to augment for overvaluations higher than 11%. In addition, whereas disequilibria are persistent even for very low overvaluations in the euro area, persistence is observed only for overvaluations higher than 14% for non-eurozone members.

Mot(s) clé(s)

current-account imbalances, current-account persistence, exchange-rate misalignments, panel smooth transition regression models

Optimality of a monetary union : New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa

Issiaka Coulibaly, Blaise Gnimassoun

Abstract

This paper aims to study the optimality of a monetary union in West Africa by using a new methodology based on the analysis of convergence and co-movements between exchange rate misalignments. Two main advantages characterize this original framework. First, it brings together the information related to several optimum currency area criteria— such as price convergence, terms of trade shocks, and trade and fiscal policies—going further than previous studies which are mainly based on only one criterion at a given time. Second, our study detects potential competitiveness differentials which play a key role in the debate on the optimality or not of a monetary union, as evidenced by the recent crisis in the Euro area. Relying on recent panel cointegration techniques and cluster analysis, our results show that the WAEMU area has a core composed by Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Senegal which can be joined by Ghana, Sierra Leone and, to a lesser extent, Gambia, and that Ghana and Senegal appear to be the best reference countries for the creation of the whole West Africa monetary union.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Exchange rate misalignment, Optimum Currency Area, West African countries

Taux de change et mésalignements du franc CFA avant et après l’introduction de l’euro

Blaise Gnimassoun

Abstract

In this paper, we rely on panel cointegration techniques to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of the CFA Franc according to the BEER approach (Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate). Examination of the CFA Franc estimated misalignments revealed that flexibility for the CFA zone in terms of price competitiveness has been greatly reduced since 2002 with the appreciation of the euro, becoming almost zero in 2009. Our results also reveal heterogeneous misalignments across exchange rates. Thus, while some countries have experienced an exchange rate undervaluation in 2009, Ivory Coast has meanwhile reached a level of overvaluation comparable to that observed in 1993. By studying the sources of CFA misalignments, we show the existence of a significant impact of the anchor currency misalignment (euro, French Franc) on the CFA misalignments with a greater influence for the French franc.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Misalignments, panel cointegration, CFA Franc, anchor currency