FLORIAN MORVILLIER

Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency undervaluations

Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon, Florian Morvillier

Abstract

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the link between exchange rate misalignments and economic growth for a large sample of 170 countries over the 1973-2019 period. We rely on new cross-country data on multilateral currency misalignments and cross-quantile regressions to demonstrate that the seemingly divergent views of the Washington Consensus and the export-led growth theory on the role of currency undervaluations in promoting economic growth can be reconciled. Although any significant departures from the equilibrium exchange rate levels are found undesirable, we show that undervaluations are more likely to stimulate economic growth in developing countries. However, this positive impact is observed only up to certain thresholds of development level and currency undervaluation. Consequently, strategies in the poorest countries that systematically undervalue currencies in real terms to foster growth should be carefully tailored, as they raise the risk for these economies of switching from a positive to a less favorable growth regime, depending on both their specific wealth level and the extent of their currency undervaluation.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Cross-quantile regressions; economic growth; multilateral currency misalignments; undervaluations.

Infrastructures and the real exchange rate

Florian Morvillier

Abstract

This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between infrastructures and the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). Applying a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model to a sample of 31 countries over the period 1973-2014, we find strong evidence of a nonlinear impact of Electricity Generating Capacity (EGC) and telecommunications on the REER dynamics. When the network is not completed or the stock of infrastructures is low, an increase in EGC and telecommunications depreciates the REER, while the additional depreciation is lower or inexistent once the network is established. Finally, turning to power grid quality, we show that higher electric power losses are associated with a REER depreciation that is particularly marked when the former are high.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Infrastructures, Panel Smooth Transition Regression, Real Exchange Rate

Robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson effect: evidence from developing and emerging economies

Florian Morvillier

Abstract

This paper aims at investigating the robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) effect to alternative proxies for a panel of 38 developing and emerging economies over the period 1980-2016. We examine the internal and external versions of the BS hypothesis using a total of five different measures. Relying on the Cross Sectional-Distributed Lag (CS-DL) approach, we show that the internal version of the BS hypothesis holds only if the labor productivity differential between the tradable and non-tradable sectors is used rather than the Gross Domestic Product Per worker. We also find evidence of a positive and robust effect of the relative price of the non-traded to traded goods on the real exchange rate. Overall, our findings highlight that while the verification of the internal version of the BS effect depends on the proxy considered for productivity, the validity of the external version is a general and robust result.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Balassa–Samuelson effect, real exchange rate, relative prices

On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability

Florian Morvillier

Abstract

This paper aims at investigating the role played by the euro’s inception on external imbalances and macroeconomic vulnerability of the eurozone. To this end, we estimate a panel VAR model over the pre-euro (1980-1998) and EMU (1999-2016) periods for eleven eurozone members. Our findings show that with the adoption of the single currency, current account vulnerability to demand and currency misalignments shocks increases significantly. The correction of external imbalances within the euro area also becomes more difficult because of the disparition of a slow-growth process and devaluations as adjustment tools.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Global imbalances, current account, output gap, exchange-rate misalignments, panel VAR.

The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus

Florian Morvillier

Abstract

The link between exchange rate undervaluations and growth has been an important source of concern over the past years, but the role of undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus has not been yet studied. We fill up this gap by showing to what extent undervaluation's level change the effect of inflation on growth. Our analysis is based on a sample of 62 countries over the period 1980-2015. In a first time, we rely on the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methodology to select the relevant growth determinants. Then, using the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we find evidence that higher is the lagged undervaluation, higher is the negative effect of inflation on growth. This result is robust to the exclusion of currency crises episodes.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Exchange rate undervaluation, Inflation, Growth, GMM

EQCHANGE: A World Database on Actual and Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rates

Cécile Couharde, Anne-Laure Delatte, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon, Florian Morvillier

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present EQCHANGE, the new database developed by the CEPII on effective exchange rates. EQCHANGE includes two sub-databases containing
data on (i) nominal and real effective exchange rates, and (ii) equilibrium real effective exchange rates and corresponding currency misalignments for advanced, emerging and developing countries. More specifically, the first sub-database delivers effective exchange rates for 187 countries that are computed under three different weighting schemes and two panels of trading partners (186 and top 30) over the 1973-2016 period. The second sub-database provides behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) estimates and corresponding currency misalignments for 182 economies over the 1973-2016 period. We describe the construction of the two datasets and illustrate some possible uses by presenting results concerning the evolution and main characteristics of currency misalignments in the world from 2015 to 2016. By providing publicly available indicators of equilibrium exchange rates, EQCHANGE aims to contribute to key debates in international macroeconomics.

Mot(s) clé(s)

Exchange rates; Equilibrium exchange rates; Currency misalignments.