THI KIM CUONG PHAM

Professeur(e)

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Photo Thi Kim Cuong Pham
  • Email

  • Phone professional

    0140977721

  • Office in Paris Nanterre

    G605B

  • Research group

      Transitions, Environnement, Énergie, Institutions, Territoires

  • Theme(s)
    • Economie publique
    • Economie du développement
    • Economie comportementale
2022-14

Infectious disease and endogenous cycles: lockdown hits two birds with one stone

David Desmarchelier, Magali Jaoul-Grammare, Guillaume Morel, Thi Kim Cuong Pham

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Abstract
This paper develops a competitive Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans framework in which an infectious disease evolves according to a simple SIS model. It aims at examining how the lockdown a§ects infectious disease persistence, individual welfare, and economic dynamics. In contrast to the existing literature, two types of infectives are introduced: (1) symptomatic and (2) asymptomatic. While the former is assumed to be too ill to work, the latter supply their labor and spread the disease. The government imposes a lockdown as an instrument to control the disease spread. In the long
run, when the contamination rate of the disease is relatively high and the share of asymptomatics is low enough, the lockdown is welfare improving regardless of the degree of household empathy toward infectives. Moreover, a stable limit cycle can emerge near the endemic steady-state, through a Hopf bifurcation, when the share of infectives increases sufficiently the marginal utility of consumption. Particularly, we prove that it is possible to tune the lockdown to simultaneously obtain the limit cycle disappearance and the disease eradication (Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation). In this sense, the lockdown allows hitting two birds with one stone.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, Lockdown, Ramsey model, SIS model
2023-2

Effects of development aid (grants and loans) on the economic dynamics of the recipient country

Cuong LE-VAN, Ngoc Sang Pham, Thi Kim Cuong Pham

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Abstract
This paper investigates the nexus between foreign aid (in both forms: grant and
loan), poverty trap, and economic development in a recipient country by using a Solow
model with two new ingredients: a development loan and a fixed cost in the production process. The presence of this fixed cost generates a poverty trap. We show that
foreign aid may help the country to escape from the poverty trap and converge to a
stable steady-state in the long run, but only if (i) the country’s characteristics, such as
saving rate, initial capital, governance quality, and productivity are good enough, (ii)
the fixed cost is relatively low, and (iii) loan rule is generous enough. We also show
that our model with foreign aid has room for endogenous cycles, unlike the standard
Solow model.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Development loan, economic dynamics, economic growth, foreign aid, grant, poverty trap
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