Photo Aurélien Saïdi

AURÉLIEN SAÏDI

MAÎTRE DE CONFÉRENCES AVEC HDR

Research interests

  • arrow_right Histoire de la pensée économique
  • arrow_right Modélisation macroéconomique
  • arrow_right Politique économique
  • arrow_right Economie géographique et spatiale

Research group

    Macroéconomie internationale, finance, matières premières et économétrie financière

HAL open science

Contact

2025-11

L’impact de l’indépendance sur le développement des petites économies insulaires et côtières : une approche par la méthode des doubles différences

Aurélien Saïdi, Alexandra Schaffar, Francisco Serranito

Abstract
This study examines the causal relationship between political independence and economic development in small islands and coastal territories using a difference-in-differences methodology with heterogeneous treatment effects. Contrary to the prevailing consensus in the literature that associates independence with inferior economic performance, our results reveal a more nuanced dynamics. While the transition to independence initially triggers a significant contraction in GDP per capita (–5% in the year of independence, followed by an additional –8% the subsequent year), this adverse effect dissipates within three years. Our cohort-specific analysis unveils substantial heterogeneity in post-independence trajectories. Some territories, such as Singapore and Seychelles, experienced remarkable growth following independence, while others faced significant economic decline. This heterogeneity challenges both traditional models of island development: it refutes the assumption that political dependence is necessary for economic success, while also questioning the view that pre-existing economic divergences solely determine political status choices. Implementation of a robust difference-in-differences framework with heterogeneous treatment timing, following recent methodological advances, ensures our findings’ validity under various identification assumptions. Overall, our results suggest that independence’s impact fundamentally depends on idiosyncratic factors that determine a territory’s capacity to transform political autonomy into economic development opportunities.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Economic Development, Diff-in-diff, Heterogeneous treatment, Political dependence, Small Islands Developing States (SIDS)
2011-10

Do followers really matter in Stackelberg competition?

Ludovic A. Julien, Olivier Musy, Aurélien Saïdi

Abstract
In this note, we consider a generalized T−stage Stackelberg oligopoly. We provide
a proof and an interpretation that under the two necessary and sufficient conditions
of linear aggregate demand and identical constant marginal costs, followers
do not matter for leaders. Leaders act as rational myopic agents, voluntarily ignoring
the number of followers and remaining stages, thereby behaving as Cournotian
oligopolists. Strategies of incumbent firms are invariant to entry of new cohorts.
Their profits can be studied by the way of two discount factors: the first impacting
markup and the second impacting output supply. Some implications in terms of
welfare and convergence toward competitive equilibrium are derived.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Leader’s markup discount factor; linear economy; follower’s output discount factor; myopic behavior
2008-44

Balanced-Budget Rule, distortionary taxes and Aggregate Instability: A Comment

Aurélien Saïdi

Abstract
It has been shown that under perfect competition and constant returns-to-scale, a one-sector growth model may exhibit local indeterminacy when income tax rates are endogenously determined by a balanced-budget rule while government expendi- tures are fixed. This paper shows that the associated aggregate instability does not ensue from the local indeterminacy of a specific stationary equilibrium but from the multiplicity of the stationary equilibria and persists under local determinacy of all of them. We provide a global analysis of the Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe model [1997] and study specific cases that were not investigated in the original paper, when aggregate instability is inherited from the coexistence of two saddle-path equilibria on one hand and from the connection of the two steady states on the other hand.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Balanced-budget rule, Increasing returns, Indeterminacy, Saddle-sink connection
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