Photo Rémi Generoso

Rémi Generoso

Maître de conférences
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  • Research group

      Macroéconomie Internationale, Banque et Econométrie Financière

  • Theme(s)
    • Economie du développement et de l'environnement
    • Econométrie appliquée
    • Migration et transferts de fonds
    • Variabilité et changement climatique

2019-17 "Reexamining the growth effects of ENSO: the role of local weather conditions"

Cécile Couharde, Olivier Damette, Rémi Generoso, Kamiar Mohaddes

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Abstract
This paper examines the growth effects of ENSO events through their interactions with local weather conditions using the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 1975 to 2014 and over a sample of 74 countries. The inclusion of SPEI in panel estimation makes it possible to control for time-varying country-specific effects of ENSO events, therefore outlining their heterogeneous effects on growth and eliminating a potential source of omitted variable bias. By better identifying the persistence of ENSO effects on local weather conditions, we evidence that ENSO events generate heterogeneous and local effects depending not only on countries' climate regime but also on their weather patterns. Our results suggest that examining the growth effects of ENSO events should thus explicitly account for their interaction with weather patterns to capture more precisely the heterogeneity across countries.
Classification-JEL
O44, Q54, R11
Mot(s) clé(s)
Economic growth, ENSO events, Weather conditions
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2015-26 "Hydro-climatic thresholds and economic growth reversals in developing countries: an empirical investigation"

Cécile Couharde, Rémi Generoso

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Abstract
In this paper, we exploit the Global Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index database to search for a nonlinear relationship between hydro-climatic conditions and economic growth on a sample of developing countries over the period 1980-2011. We evidence a nonlinear link between hydro-climatic conditions and economic growth only in developing agricultural-dependant countries, the impact of hydro-climatic variations being more easily absorbed in more diversified economies. Furthermore, threshold values reached by hydro-climatic conditions that drive changes in the pattern of economic growth are lower than to those corresponding to extreme weather conditions, suggesting a high sensitivity of economic growth in developing agricultural-dependent countries to small fluctuations in weather.
Classification-JEL
C33; 040; Q54.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Developing countries; Economic growth; Hydro-climatic conditions; Panel Smooth Transtion Regression (PSTR) model.
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2014-37 "The ambiguous role of remittances in West African countries facing climate variability"

Cécile Couharde, Rémi Generoso

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Abstract
We investigate the consequences of remittances inflows on macroeconomic performance of West African countries over the 1985 - 2007 period. We take into account the exposition of those countries to climate variability by estimating a PCHVAR model which allows heterogeneity between countries’ responses to rainfall shocks. Our results show that the impact of remittances on macroeconomic performances is highly sensitive to those shocks. In particular, when drought conditions prevail, remittances do not longer exert any short-term spillover effects on growth and may increase a situation of economic dependence, by spurring agricultural imports.
Classification-JEL
C33; F24; O11
Mot(s) clé(s)
Climate variability; Remittances; PCHVAR model; West Africa
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