Photo Pauline Gandré

Pauline Gandré

Maître de conférences
  • Email
  • Tél. professionnel 0140977787
  • Bureau à Paris Nanterre (Bât. + num.) G514
  • Research group

      Macroéconomie Internationale, Banque et Econométrie Financière

  • Theme(s)
    • Macroéconomie
    • Finance

2020-10 "Learning, house prices and macro-financial linkages"

Pauline Gandré

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Abstract
In the US, the linkages between the housing market, the credit market and the real sector have been striking in the past decades. To explain these linkages, I develop a small-scale DSGE model in which agents update non-rational beliefs about future house price growth, in accord with recent survey data evidence. Conditional on subjective house price beliefs, expectations are model-consistent. In the model with non-rational expectations, both standard productivity shocks and shocks in the credit sector generate endogenously persistent booms in house prices. Long-lasting excess volatility in house prices, in turn, affects the financial sector (because housing assets serve as collateral for household and entrepreneurial debt), and propagates to the real sector. This amplification and propagation mechanism improves the ability of the model to explain empirical puzzles in the US housing market and to explain the macro-financial linkages during 1985-2019. The learning model can also replicate the predictability of forecast errors evidenced in survey data.
Classification-JEL
D83, D84, E32, E44, G12.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Housing booms, Financial Accelerator, Business Cycles, Non-rational Expectations, Learning.
File

2019-7 "Les déterminants locaux de la participation numérique au Grand débat national : une analyse économétrique"

Hamza Bennani, Pauline Gandré, Benjamin Monnery

Show Download working paper (on EconPapers)

Abstract
This paper analyses the local determinants of the electronic participation to the "Grand débat". First, we highlight the spatial heterogeneity of the participants using their zip code. Second, we use an econometric approach to assess the local determinants of the general participation and the participation on each of the four topics of the "Grand débat". The results show that the median standard of living and the education level are the main determinants of the general participation, whereas some specific variables explain the participation of each of the four topics.
Classification-JEL
C21, D72
Mot(s) clé(s)
Grand débat, electronic participation, local determinants
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