LIONEL RAGOT
Professeur(e)
2018-36
The fiscal impact of 30 years of immigration in France: an accounting approach
Xavier Chojnicki, Lionel Ragot, Ndeye Penda Sokhna
- Résumé
- Cet article évalue la contribution nette de l’immigration aux finances publiques en France depuis la fin des années 70. Nous développons une méthode comptable qui désagrège le déficit public primaire entre la contribution propre à la population des immigrés et celle des natifs. Cette contribution nette est calculée comme la différence entre les taxes, cotisations et impôts divers qu’ils versent aux finances publiques et l’ensemble des bénéfices qu’ils en retirent. Un des apports de cet article est de calculer cette contribution nette sur une période de temps relativement longue (1979-2011). Nous montrons que la contribution nette des immigrés a généralement été négative sur l’ensemble de la période, mais qu’elle n’a jamais été à l’origine du déficit primaire de la France. Leur contribution est toujours restée contenue en deçà de +/-0; 5% du PIB (réduit à +/-0; 2%, si on fait exception de l’année 2011). Cette relative neutralité de la population immigrée sur les comptes publics
s’explique par une structure démographique favorable, qui compense leur moindre contribution nette individuelle. La crise de 2008, comparée à la récession des années 90, a eu des effets plus marqués. Alors que les immigrés expliquent 8,3% du déficit primaire par habitant en France en 1995 (comparable à leur poids dans la population totale), cette part est de plus de 17% en 2011. Cette différence s’explique en grande partie par le fait que les actifs immigrés ont été beaucoup plus touchés que les actifs natifs durant la crise de 2008, en particulier les moyennement et hautement qualifiés. Les années 2000 ont également vue la contribution nette par tête des immigrés originaires de l’Union Européenne se dégrader sensiblement et rejoindre celle des immigrés originaires de pays tiers. - Mot(s) clé(s)
- Migration internationale, Finances publiques, Protection sociale
2017-45
Understanding the Impact of Tuition Fees in Foreign Education: the Case of the UK.
Michel Beine, Marco Delogu, Lionel Ragot
- Résumé
- This paper studies the determinants of international students’ mobility at the university level, focusing specifically on the role of tuition fees. We first develop an original Random Utility Maximization model of location choice for international students in the presence of capacity constraints of the hosting institutions. The last layer of the model gives rise to a gravity equation. This equation is estimated using new data on student migration flows at the university level for the U.K. We control for the endogeneity of tuition fees by taking benefit of the institutional constraints in terms of tuition caps applied in the UK to European students at the bachelor level. The estimations support a negative impact of tuition fees and stress the need to account for the endogenous nature of the fees in the empirical identification of their impact. The estimations also support an important role of additional destination-specific variables such as host capacity, the expected return of education and the cost of living in the vicinity of the university.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Foreign students; Tuition fees; Location choice; University Quality.
2017-44
The Role of Fees in Foreign Education: Evidence From Italy.
Michel Beine, Marco Delogu, Lionel Ragot
- Résumé
- This paper studies the determinants of international students' mobility at the university level, focusing specifically on the role of tuition fees. We derive a gravity model from a Random Utility Maximization model of location choice for international students in the presence of capacity constraints of the hosting institutions. The last layer of the model is estimated using new data on student migration flows at the university level for Italy. We control for the potential endogeneity of tuition fees through a classical IV approach based on the status of the university. We obtain evidence for a clear and negative effect of fees on international student mobility and confirm the positive impact of the quality of the education. The estimations also support the important role of additional destination-specific variables such as host capacity, the expected return of education and the cost of living in the vicinity of the university.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Foreign students; Tuition fees; Location choice; University Quality.
2015-36
Preferences and pollution cycles
Stefano Bosi, David Desmarchelier, Lionel Ragot
- Résumé
- Nous étudions le sentier de croissance concurrentiel d'une économie à la Ramsey où la pollution (externalité négative) affecte à la fois la demande de consommation et l'offre de travail des ménages. La pollution y est introduite comme une variable de stock avec une forte persistance au cours du temps. Dans la littérature, des situations d'indétermination locale apparaissent lorsque la pollution prend la forme d'un flux. Dans notre modèle, lorsque la pollution augmente la demande de consommation (effet de compensation), tout en réduisant l'offre de travail (effet loisir), des équilibres multiples apparaissent au voisinage de létat stationnaire (indétermination locale) au travers d'une bifurcation de Hopf (cycle limite). Ce résultat surprenant s'explique par la présence de l'effet loisir qui rend le processus d'accumulation de la pollution plus volatile.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- pollution, endogenous labor supply, limit cycle, Ramsey model.
2014-34
Pollution effects on labor supply and growth
Stefano Bosi, David Desmarchelier, Lionel Ragot
- Résumé
- Some recent empirical contributions have pointed out a significant negative impact of pollution on labor supply. These impacts have been largely ignored in the theoretical literature, which, instead, focused on the case of pollution effects on consumption demand. In this paper, we study the short and long-run effects of pollution in a Ramsey model where pollution and labor supply are nonseparable arguments in households’ preferences. We determine sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of a longterm equilibrium and we show how large (negative) effects of pollution on labor supply may promotes macroeconomic volatility (deterministic cycles near the steady state) through a flip bifurcation.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- pollution, endogenous labor supply, Ramsey model.
2014-33
Impacts of Immigration on Aging Welfare-State An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France
Xavier Chojnicki, Lionel Ragot
- Résumé
- Immigration is often seen as an instrument of adaptation for aging countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the aging population in France. Four variants, compared to a baseline scenario based on oficial projections, are simulated with the aim to quantify the immigration effects on the French social protection finances. The first variant assesses the economic effects of immigration in France as projected into official forecasts. The three other variants are built on the same more ambitious annual flows of immigrants (corresponding to net migration that have characterized the second great wave of immigration in France in the twentieth century). These three variants only distinguish in terms of the skill structure of new migrants. We show that the age and skill structure of immigrants are the key feature that mainly determine the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effcts are all the more positive in the short-medium term that the migration policy is selective (in favor of more skilled workers). In the long term, beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But the financial gains from more consequent migration flows are relatively moderated in comparison of demographic changes implied.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- Migration, AGEM, Overlapping generations, Aging, Public finance, Social protection.
2013-25
On the optimal control of pollution in a human capital growth model
Stefano Bosi, Lionel Ragot
- Résumé
- On the one hand, the adoption of polluting technologies can enhance the factor productivity; on the other hand, pollution lowers the stock of human capital by weakening physical and mental performances, and short-ening the life expectancy at the end. To capture the impact of pollution on economic growth, we compute the optimal policy in an endogenous growth model `a la Lucas (1988) and we study the effects of pollution in the short and the long run.
- Mot(s) clé(s)
- pollution, human capital, endogenous growth
2013-26
The determinants of international mobility of students
Michel Beine, Romain Noël, Lionel Ragot
- Résumé
- This paper analyzes the determinants of the choice of location of international students. Building on the documented trends in international migration of students, we develop a small theoretical model allowing to identify the various factors associated to the attraction of migrants as well as the costs of moving abroad. Using new data capturing the number of students from a large set of origin countries studying in a set of 13 OECD countries, we assess the importance of the various factors identified in the theory. We find support for a significant network effect in the migration of students, a result so far undocumented in the literature. We also find a significant role for cost factors such as housing prices and for attractiveness variables such as the reported quality of universities. In contrast, we do not
find an important role for registration fees. - Mot(s) clé(s)
- Student mobility, network effect, migration costs, higher education policy
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