Photo Cécile Couharde

Cécile Couharde

Professeur(e)
  • Email
  • Tél. professionnel 0140977880
  • Bureau à Paris Nanterre (Bât. + num.) G608A
  • Research group

      Macroéconomie Internationale, Banque et Econométrie Financière

  • Theme(s)
    • Taux de change d'équilibre
    • Régimes de change
    • Intégration monétaire

2021-6 "Do IMF Reports Affect Market Expectations ? A Sentiment Analysis Approach"

Hamza Bennani, Cécile Couharde, Yoan Wallois

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Abstract
We introduce an original dataset based on the qualitative content of the Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Exploiting this rich database, we gauge several measures of IMF sentiment based on the REO reports towards 16 countries in three regions, Asia and Pacific, Europe and Western Hemisphere, from 2007 to 2018 and examine their impact on financial markets. We find that the qualitative content of the REO reports has significant repercussions on stock market returns in Europe and bond yields in Asia and Pacific over short time horizons, these impacts disappearing over time. We also demonstrate that the impact of IMF sentiment is robust to the use of an
alternative sentiment measure that focuses exclusively on negative words.
Classification-JEL
F53, G15, Z13
Mot(s) clé(s)
Financial markets, High frequency, IMF, Sentiment index, Text analysis
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2021-11 "On the desirability of the West African monetary union"

Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon

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Abstract
In this paper, we investigate from a policy coordination viewpoint the desirability of the West African monetary union project, ECO. Our approach is built around the inclusion of national objectives in the regional integration perspective. Thanks to cluster analysis, we identify two groups of countries with relatively homogenous sustainable exchange rate paths in West Africa. We also find that no single currency peg nor a freely floating exchange rate regime would be preferable for any of the countries or groups of economies. Overall, our findings argue in favor of two ECOs —at least in a first step, i.e., one for each of the two identified zones. Each ECO would serve as a virtual anchor —with some flexibility— for the considered group, and would be determined by a basket of currencies mainly composed of euro and US dollar.
Classification-JEL
F33, F45, C38, O55.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Monetary integration; West Africa; CFA franc zone; ECOWAS.
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2020-32 "The Fata Morgana of Exchange Rate Regimes: Reconciling the LYS and the RR classifications"

Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou

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Abstract
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the disagreements between the two most popular but also discordant de facto exchange rate regime classifications: the Reinhart and Rogoff and the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger classifications. We estimate probabilities of disagreement between the two classifications for the different exchange rate regime categories, and derive a de facto synthesis classification, using the Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. We show that more than a third of the observations are not directly comparable, and relatively few disagreements are directly attributable to the classifications’ key variables. Most of the disagreements originate from the different thresholds used by the classifications in the definition of the ERR categories and the interactions between several variables. Given these complexities, the synthesis classification provides a useful framework in terms of greater comparability.
Classification-JEL
E52; F33; F4; O24.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Exchange rate regimes; Probit model; ROC analysis.
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2019-17 "Reexamining the growth effects of ENSO: the role of local weather conditions"

Cécile Couharde, Olivier Damette, Rémi Generoso, Kamiar Mohaddes

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Abstract
This paper examines the growth effects of ENSO events through their interactions with local weather conditions using the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 1975 to 2014 and over a sample of 74 countries. The inclusion of SPEI in panel estimation makes it possible to control for time-varying country-specific effects of ENSO events, therefore outlining their heterogeneous effects on growth and eliminating a potential source of omitted variable bias. By better identifying the persistence of ENSO effects on local weather conditions, we evidence that ENSO events generate heterogeneous and local effects depending not only on countries' climate regime but also on their weather patterns. Our results suggest that examining the growth effects of ENSO events should thus explicitly account for their interaction with weather patterns to capture more precisely the heterogeneity across countries.
Classification-JEL
O44, Q54, R11
Mot(s) clé(s)
Economic growth, ENSO events, Weather conditions
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2019-6 "Heterogeneity within the euro area: New insights into an old story"

Virginie Coudert, Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon

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Abstract
We assess cross-country heterogeneity within the eurozone and its evolution over time by measuring the distances between the equilibrium exchange rates’ paths of member countries. These equilibrium paths are derived from the minimization of currency misalignments, by matching real exchange rates with their economic fundamentals. Using cluster and factor analyses, we identify two distinct groups of countries in the run-up to the European Monetary Union (EMU), Greece being clearly an outlier at that time. Comparing the results with more recent periods, we find evidence of rising dissimilarities between these two sets of countries, as well as within the groups themselves. Overall, our findings illustrate the building-up of macroeconomic imbalances within the eurozone before the 2008 crisis and the fragmentation between its member countries that followed.
Classification-JEL
F33, F45, E5, C38
Mot(s) clé(s)
Euro area; Equilibrium exchange rates; Cluster analysis; Factor analysis; Macroeconomic imbalances
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2018-42 "Fossil fuel subsidies, income inequality and poverty. Evidence from developing countries"

Cécile Couharde, Sara Mouhoud

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Abstract
The past two decades have witnessed widespread attempts to reform fossil fuel subsidies in developing countries. If the reforms are likely to improve economic efficiency, the expected effects on income distribution and poverty are more controversial. This paper reviews the recent literature that examines the impacts of fossil fuel subsidies and their reform on income inequality and poverty. It identifies the different channels that have been explored in the literature and surveys the empirical evidence on the importance of
these channels in practice. Drawing on diverse country experiences, it also discusses why fossil fuel subsidies are particularly challenging to reform and highlights several ways in which efforts to reform may be feasible and successful.
Classification-JEL
E62, H71, I32
Mot(s) clé(s)
fossil fuel subsidies, developing countries, distributional impact, subsidy reform
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2017-40 "The Importance of Oil in the Allocation of Foreign Aid: The case of the G7 donors"

Cécile Couharde, Fatih Karanfil, Eric Gabin Kilama, Luc-Désiré Omgba

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Abstract
While it is often alleged that oil endowment might influence the destination of foreign aid, there is lack of empirical evidence of how and why such an effect may come into play, and even less so of the channels through which it works. This paper aims to bring evidence that contributes to address those points. Specifically, we investigate the role of oil in aid allocation of the G7 donors, over the 1980-2010 period. Results show that, unsurprisingly, aid allocated by these donors increases significantly with oil endowment of recipient countries. Looking more deeply, we interestingly show that their strategic interests in terms of oil security play a role in their provision of aid. More importantly, we find evidence for competition for access to oil supplies among this group of donors.
Classification-JEL
F35, Q35, C31.
Mot(s) clé(s)
aid allocation, G7 donors, oil competition, spatial lag model.
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2017-39 "EQCHANGE: A World Database on Actual and Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rates"

Cécile Couharde, Anne-Laure Delatte, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon, Florian Morvillier

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Abstract
The aim of this paper is to present EQCHANGE, the new database developed by the CEPII on effective exchange rates. EQCHANGE includes two sub-databases containing
data on (i) nominal and real effective exchange rates, and (ii) equilibrium real effective exchange rates and corresponding currency misalignments for advanced, emerging and developing countries. More specifically, the first sub-database delivers effective exchange rates for 187 countries that are computed under three different weighting schemes and two panels of trading partners (186 and top 30) over the 1973-2016 period. The second sub-database provides behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) estimates and corresponding currency misalignments for 182 economies over the 1973-2016 period. We describe the construction of the two datasets and illustrate some possible uses by presenting results concerning the evolution and main characteristics of currency misalignments in the world from 2015 to 2016. By providing publicly available indicators of equilibrium exchange rates, EQCHANGE aims to contribute to key debates in international macroeconomics.
Classification-JEL
F31, C23, C82.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Exchange rates; Equilibrium exchange rates; Currency misalignments.
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2016-31 "Currency Misalignments in emerging and developing countries: reassessing the role of Exchange Rate Regimes"

Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou

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Abstract
This paper re-examines empirically the relationship between exchange rate regimes and currency misalignments in emerging and developing countries. Using alternative de facto exchange rate regime classifications over the period 1980-2012, it finds strong evidence that performance of exchange rate regimes is conditional on the de facto classification. In particular, this paper shows that the effect of monetary arrangements on currency misalignments depends critically on the ability of these classification schemes to capture adequately dysfunctional monetary regimes.
Classification-JEL
C23, F31, F33.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Currency misalignments; Exchange rate regimes; Emerging and developing countries.
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2015-38 "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: What can be learned from time-varying specifications?"

Jean-Pierre Allegret, Cécile Couharde, Valérie Mignon, Tovonony Razafindrabe

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Abstract
While the oil currency property is clearly established from a theoretical viewpoint, its existence is less clear-cut in the empirical literature. We investigate the reasons for this apparent puzzle by studying the time-varying nature of the relationship between real effective exchange rates of five oil exporters and the real oil price in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the last two decades. Accordingly, we rely on a time-varying parameter VAR specification which allows the responses of real exchange rates to different oil price shocks to evolve over time. We find that the reason of the mixed results obtained in the empirical literature is that oil currencies follow different hybrid models in the sense that oil countries' real exchange rates may be driven by one or several sources of oil price shocks that furthermore can vary over time. In addition to structural changes affecting oil countries, structural changes arising from the oil market itself through the various, time-varying sources of oil price shocks are found to be crucial.
Classification-JEL
C32; F31; Q43.
Mot(s) clé(s)
oil currencies, oil shocks, Time-Varying Parameter VAR model.
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2015-26 "Hydro-climatic thresholds and economic growth reversals in developing countries: an empirical investigation"

Cécile Couharde, Rémi Generoso

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Abstract
In this paper, we exploit the Global Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index database to search for a nonlinear relationship between hydro-climatic conditions and economic growth on a sample of developing countries over the period 1980-2011. We evidence a nonlinear link between hydro-climatic conditions and economic growth only in developing agricultural-dependant countries, the impact of hydro-climatic variations being more easily absorbed in more diversified economies. Furthermore, threshold values reached by hydro-climatic conditions that drive changes in the pattern of economic growth are lower than to those corresponding to extreme weather conditions, suggesting a high sensitivity of economic growth in developing agricultural-dependent countries to small fluctuations in weather.
Classification-JEL
C33; 040; Q54.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Developing countries; Economic growth; Hydro-climatic conditions; Panel Smooth Transtion Regression (PSTR) model.
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2015-20 "External debt and real exchange rates’adjustment in the euro area: New evidence from a nonlinear NATREX model"

Audrey Allegret, Cécile Couharde, Serge Rey

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Abstract
In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run real exchange rate determination within the euro area, focusing on the role of external debt. Accordingly, we rely on the NATREX approach which provides an explicit framework of the external debt-real exchange rates nexus. In particular, given the indebtedness levels reached by the euro area economies, we investigate potential non-linearity in real exchange rates dynamics, according to the level of the external debt. Our results evidence that during the monetary union, gross and net external debt positions of the euro area countries have exerted pressures on real exchange rate dynamics within the area. Moreover, we find that, beyond a threshold reached by the external debt, euro area countries are found to be in a vulnerable position, leading to an unavoidable adjustment process. Nevertheless, the adjustment process, while effective, is found to be low and occurs slowly.
Classification-JEL
C23; F31; O47.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Euro area; External debt; NATREX approach; Panel Smooth Transition Regression models; Real exchange rates.
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2014-52 "Financial integration, financial turmoil and risk premia in emerging markets"

Salem Boubakri, Cécile Couharde, Hélène Raymond

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Abstract
The aim of this article is to study the dynamics of financial integration and of the risk premia in emerging markets. Accordingly, we estimate a variant of the International Asset Pricing Model (IAPM) developed by Errunza and Losq (1985) and Carrieri et al. (2007), allowing for time-varying stock market integration, in which we include the foreign currency risk. Our sample consists of monthly data for 12 emerging stock markets over the period 1988−2012. We find that the evolution of financial integration is broadly consistent with the de jure measure of capital openness, but much less sticky. Moreover, while the financial integration of emerging stock markets displays an upward trend, it has also registered short-term reversals episodes during crises. The upward trend in financial integration does not reduce the local market risk premium component as much as could be expected, as regional crises strengthen the idiosyncratic character of the risk premium. Finally, the recent global crisis has induced a reassessment of the world market risk premium for all emerging countries, highlighting the global nature of the crisis.
Classification-JEL
C32, F31, G12.
Mot(s) clé(s)
De facto financial integration, emerging markets, IAPM, risk premium.
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2014-37 "The ambiguous role of remittances in West African countries facing climate variability"

Cécile Couharde, Rémi Generoso

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Abstract
We investigate the consequences of remittances inflows on macroeconomic performance of West African countries over the 1985 - 2007 period. We take into account the exposition of those countries to climate variability by estimating a PCHVAR model which allows heterogeneity between countries’ responses to rainfall shocks. Our results show that the impact of remittances on macroeconomic performances is highly sensitive to those shocks. In particular, when drought conditions prevail, remittances do not longer exert any short-term spillover effects on growth and may increase a situation of economic dependence, by spurring agricultural imports.
Classification-JEL
C33; F24; O11
Mot(s) clé(s)
Climate variability; Remittances; PCHVAR model; West Africa
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2014-3 "On the impact of oil price volatility on the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies"

Virginie Coudert, Cécile Couharde, Valérie Mignon

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Abstract
The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between terms of trade and real exchange rates of commodity-producing countries on both the short and the long run. We pay particular attention to the dominant role played by oil among commodities by investigating the potential non-linear effect exerted by the situation on the oil market on the real exchange rate - terms of trade nexus. To this end, we rely on the panel smooth transition regression methodology to estimate the adjustment process of the real effective exchange rate to its equilibrium value depending on the volatility on the oil market. Considering a panel of 52 commodity exporters and 17 oil exporters over the 1980-2012 period, our findings show that while exchange rates are mainly driven by fundamentals in the low-volatility regime, they are mostly sensitive to changes in terms of trade when oil price variations exceed a certain threshold. The commodity-currency property is thus at play in the short run only for important variations in the oil price.
Classification-JEL
C23 ; F31; Q43
Mot(s) clé(s)
commodity currencies, oil price, non-linearity
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2013-29 "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: the role of financial development"

Jean-Pierre Allegret, Cécile Couharde, Dramane Coulibaly, Valérie Mignon

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Abstract
Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition regression models over the 1980-2010 period, we provide evidence that refines the traditional interpretation of oil price effects on current accounts. While current accounts are positively affected by oil price variations, this effect is nonlinear and depends critically on the degree of financial development of oil-exporting economies. More specifically, oil price variations exert a positive impact on the current account position for less financially developed countries, while this influence tends to diminish when the degree of financial deepness augments.
Classification-JEL
F32, C33
Mot(s) clé(s)
current account; oil price; financial development; panel smooth transition regression models
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2012-34 "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?"

Cécile Couharde, Issiaka Coulibaly, David Guerreiro, Valérie Mignon

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Abstract
This paper aims at explaining why the CFA countries have successfully maintained a currency union for several decades, despite failing to meet many of optimum currency area criteria. We suggest that the CFA zone, while not optimal, has been at least sustainable. We test this sustainability hypothesis by relying on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. In particular, we assess and compare the convergence process of real exchange rates towards equilibrium for the CFA zone countries and a sample of other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our findings evidence that internal and external balances have been fostered and adjustments facilitated in the CFA zone as a whole—compared to other SSA countries—as well as in each of its member countries.
Classification-JEL
F31 F33 C23
Mot(s) clé(s)
Equilibrium exchange rates; CFA zone; Optimum Currency Areas; currency union sustainability
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2012-30 "On currency misalignments within the euro area"

Virginie Coudert, Cécile Couharde, Valérie Mignon

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Abstract
Although nominal parities have been completely fixed within the euro area since the launch of the single currency, real effective exchange rates have continued to vary under the effect of inflation disparities, exhibiting a strong appreciation in the peripheral countries. In this paper, we assess real exchange rate misalignments for euro area countries by using a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach on the period 1980-2010. The results show that the peripheral member countries have been suffering from increasingly overvalued exchange rates since the mid-2000s, as their real appreciation has not stemmed from improving fundamentals in terms of productivity or external position. In addition, currency misalignments have been increased on average for all euro area countries since monetary union, while becoming more persistent. More worryingly, our findings highlight different patterns across members, as misalignments have been larger and more persistent in peripheral countries than in core countries.
Classification-JEL
F31, C23
Mot(s) clé(s)
euro area; real equilibrium exchange rates; misalignments; panel cointegration
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2012-1 "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity"

Jean-Pierre Allegret, Cécile Couharde, Cyriac Guillaumin

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Abstract
In this paper, we examine the relative importance of external shocks in domestic fluctuations of East Asian countries and check if these shocks lead to asymmetric or symmetric reactions between the considered economies. To this end, we estimate, over the period 1990.1-2010.4, a structural VAR model with block exogeneity (SVARX model) relying on a comprehensive set of external shocks. We firstly document a rising impact of these external shocks on domestic variables since the mid 1990s. Finally, real oil price and U.S. GDP shocks have a significant impact on domestic activity and lead to more symmetric responses, compared to U.S. monetary shock and MSCI Index financial shocks.
Classification-JEL
F32, F33, F4
Mot(s) clé(s)
external shocks, East Asia, SVARX model.
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2011-28 "Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone"

Cécile Couharde, Issiaka Coulibaly, Olivier Damette

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Abstract
In this paper, we analyse currencies' misalignments of the CFA zone countries and the adjustment process of their real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level over the period 1985-2007. To this end, we firstly estimate, using panel cointegration techniques, a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Secondly, we estimate a panel smooth transition error correction model in order to take into account non linearities in the convergence process of real exchange rates towards their equilibrium level. Two main results emerge from our analysis. Firstly, the real appreciation of effective exchange rates in the CFA zone countries from the 2000s did not translate, in 2007, into a real overvaluation comparable to that occurring before the devaluation of the CFA franc in 1994. However, some countries are exceptions, indicating a strong heterogeneity within the CFA zone. Finally, the convergence process of real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level also differs substantially between country groups. These results tend to show the difficulty to apply a single exchange rate policy in the CFA zone and rather call for further coordination and policy harmonization between the countries.
Classification-JEL
C23, F31, O1
Mot(s) clé(s)
CFA zone, misalignments, panel smooth transition model
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