Photo Carl Grekou

Carl Grekou

Chargé(e) de recherches
  • Email
  • Axe de recherche

      Macroéconomie Internationale, Banque et Econométrie Financière

  • Thème(s)
    • Taux de change
    • Taux de change d'équilibre
    • Régimes de change

2019-6 "Heterogeneity within the euro area: New insights into an old story"

Virginie Coudert, Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon

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Résumé
Cet article évalue l'hétérogénéité des pays au sein de la zone euro et son évolution au cours du temps en mesurant les écarts entre les trajectoires des taux de change d'équilibre des pays membres. Ces trajectoires d'équilibre découlent de la minimisation des mésalignements de change, obtenus en faisant correspondre les taux de change réels à leurs fondamentaux économiques. À l’aide d’analyses par clusters et factorielle, nous identifions deux groupes de pays distincts dans la période pré-Union économique et monétaire européenne (UEM), la Grèce étant clairement isolée des autres pays à cette époque. En comparant les résultats à ceux obtenus sur des périodes plus récentes, nous constatons des disparités croissantes entre ces deux groupes de pays, ainsi qu’au sein des groupes eux-mêmes. Globalement, nos conclusions illustrent l’émergence de déséquilibres macroéconomiques au sein de la zone euro avant la crise de 2008 et la fragmentation qui a suivi entre ses pays membres.
Classification-JEL
F33, F45, E5, C38
Mot(s) clé(s)
zone euro ; taux de change d’équilibre ; analyse par clusters ; analyse factorielle ; déséquilibres macroéconomiques
Fichier

2017-39 "EQCHANGE: A World Database on Actual and Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rates"

Cécile Couharde, Anne-Laure Delatte, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon, Florian Morvillier

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Résumé
The aim of this paper is to present EQCHANGE, the new database developed by the CEPII on effective exchange rates. EQCHANGE includes two sub-databases containing
data on (i) nominal and real effective exchange rates, and (ii) equilibrium real effective exchange rates and corresponding currency misalignments for advanced, emerging and developing countries. More specifically, the first sub-database delivers effective exchange rates for 187 countries that are computed under three different weighting schemes and two panels of trading partners (186 and top 30) over the 1973-2016 period. The second sub-database provides behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) estimates and corresponding currency misalignments for 182 economies over the 1973-2016 period. We describe the construction of the two datasets and illustrate some possible uses by presenting results concerning the evolution and main characteristics of currency misalignments in the world from 2015 to 2016. By providing publicly available indicators of equilibrium exchange rates, EQCHANGE aims to contribute to key debates in international macroeconomics.
Classification-JEL
F31, C23, C82.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Exchange rates; Equilibrium exchange rates; Currency misalignments.
Fichier

2016-31 "Currency Misalignments in emerging and developing countries: reassessing the role of Exchange Rate Regimes"

Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou

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Résumé
This paper re-examines empirically the relationship between exchange rate regimes and currency misalignments in emerging and developing countries. Using alternative de facto exchange rate regime classifications over the period 1980-2012, it finds strong evidence that performance of exchange rate regimes is conditional on the de facto classification. In particular, this paper shows that the effect of monetary arrangements on currency misalignments depends critically on the ability of these classification schemes to capture adequately dysfunctional monetary regimes.
Classification-JEL
C23, F31, F33.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Currency misalignments; Exchange rate regimes; Emerging and developing countries.
Fichier

2016-26 "Does the exchange rate regime shape currency misalignments in emerging and developing countries?"

Carl Grekou

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Résumé
Relying on a panel of 73 emerging and developing countries and on de facto exchange rate regimes’ classification —over the 1980-2012 period, we re-examine empirically the relationship between exchange rate regimes and currency misalignments. Overall our results suggest that no exchange rate regime performs better than the others as currency misalignments do not substantially and significantly differ across exchange rate regimes. This finding is in contrast to the different arguments (both theoretical and empirical) in favor or against any particular regime and instead supports the exchange regime neutrality view.
Classification-JEL
C23, F31, F33.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Currency misalignments; Exchange rate regimes; Emerging and developing countries.
Fichier

2015-23 "Currency misalignments and economic growth: the foreign currency-denominated debt channel"

Carl Grekou

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Résumé
The literature on the growth effects of currency misalignments, although prolific, revolves around two main axes: one the one hand, the export-oriented growth literature which attributes positive effects to undervaluations (competitiveness gains) and, on the other hand, the Washington Consensus view according to which any deviations from equilibrium hamper economic growth. In this paper, we show that there is no "one size fits all" relationship in this regard. Indeed, relying on a panel of 72 developing and emerging countries, we evidence the existence of a foreign currency-denominated debt channel through which misalignments impact growth. Compared to the "traditional" competitiveness channel, this channel works in the opposite direction. The paper therefore reconciles the two strands of the literature: undervaluations may have indeed a positive growth effect, but it is crucial to take into account the possible costs related to this undervaluation to have a clearer picture of the net total effect.
Classification-JEL
F3 F43 C33 O11.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Currency misalignments; Economic growth; Foreign currency-denominated debt.
Fichier

2014-61 "On the effectiveness of devaluations in emerging and developing countries"

Carl Grekou

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Résumé
In this paper, we address the issue of devaluations' effectiveness by investigating to what extent a nominal devaluation leads to a real depreciation. Beyond the traditional factors identified by the literature, we pay particular attention to the size of the nominal devaluation and to the initial misalignment of the real exchange rate. Using a sample of 57 devaluation episodes (in 40 developing and emerging countries) and relying on panel data techniques, we evidence that the existence of a sizeable overvaluation of the real exchange rate is a prerequisite to ensure that nominal devaluations will have an expected effect in terms of real depreciations. Furthermore, our results put forward a potential nonlinear relationship between the size of the devaluation and the effectiveness of the nominal adjustment: devaluations operate more efficiently when the magnitude of the nominal adjustment is lower.
Classification-JEL
C1, E6, F3, F41.
Mot(s) clé(s)
Bayesian model averaging; Currency devaluations; Macroeconomic policies; Real exchange rates’ misalignments.
Fichier

2014-28 "Child Mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Why Public Health Spending Matters"

Carl Grekou, Romain Perez

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Résumé
Since 2000, child mortality has dramatically decreased in Africa. Based on an econometrical analysis over 45 sub-Saharan African countries, this paper analyses the determinants of such evolution, and shows that urbanization, sanitation improvement and GDP growth per capita played a critical role in this overall improvement over 2000-2011. The increase in public health expenditures proved to be also decisive, though the elasticity with mortality rate is much weaker. Reaching the Abuja target of 15% of public health expenditure in total public expenditures would have decreased the under-5 child mortality rate by 9% over 2001-2011. It could further reduce this rate by 14% over 2012-2021, and allow Africa to save 19.8 million of children lives. It would also help the region to achieve the Millennium Development Goal on child mortality (reduce by two thirds under-5 child mortality over 1990-2015) by 2022-23, while it would not be reached before 2027 otherwise, according to our estimates.
Classification-JEL
H51, I12, I18, O15
Mot(s) clé(s)
Millennium Development Goals, MDGs, Under-5 mortality rate, sub-Saharan Africa, Public expenditure on health.
Fichier

2014-4 "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone"

Carl Grekou

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Résumé
In this paper, we revisit the link between currency misalignments and economic growth by taking into account the foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics (except French Franc and euro) for the CFA zone countries over the period 1985-2011. Relying on a BEER approach and using panel cointegration techniques, we first derive currency misalignments. We then estimate a panel smooth transition growth equation that allows us to observe nonlinear impacts of misalignments on both economic growth and foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics. We find that the nonlinear impact of currency misalignments on growth through the competitiveness channel is mitigated by the foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics through a valuation effect.
Classification-JEL
C33, E42, F3, F43
Mot(s) clé(s)
Currency misalignments, CFA zone, debt, economic growth, panel smooth transition regression
Fichier
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