DOCTORANTS

Discutants: Estel Apeti, Albin Salmon

Résumé : This article assesses the impact of weather variations on France’s agricultural sector over the period 1980 to 2023, employing recent local projection and pseudo-panel local projection frameworks at a sub-national level. It highlights the detrimental effects of increasing temperatures on the value added of the agricultural sector and underscores an important northsouth divide. Moreover, the article also stresses the importance of an estimation method that goes beyond conventional panel studies, in particular by decomposing weather variables. It further explores the significance of adopting a pseudo-panel local projection specification in analyzing these relationships, contributing new insights to the literature and informing regionspecific policy interventions.

Discutants: Hugo Oriola, Pablo Aguilar Perez

Résumé : The conjunction of the growing digitalization of the economy and the rise of demand for high-frequency indicators have made internet search data a very popular source for forecasting and nowcasting exercises. Since the inception of Google Trends, influential papers have highlighted its predictive powers, but very few academic studies have taken into account the possible inconsistencies in these series. This paper empirically investigates the drivers of Google Trends data inconsistencies. It also puts forward a methodology to use them in real time, alleviating sampling-related inconsistencies. Finally, it uses Google Trends data to build a nowcast of US Personal Consumption Expenditures.

Discutants : Valérie Mignon, Michaël Guillossou

Résumé : This paper investigates the effects on adult and children height of currency crises experienced during childhood. It uses survey data from DHS collected in 57 countries for hundreds of thousands of adults and children under 5 years-old collected between 2000 and 2023, combined with a dataset indicating the start of currency crises between 1970 and 2017. In this setting, adults having experienced a currency crisis between their birth and 10 years old are on average shorter than their peers, with a maximum effect of about - 3 mm (-0.04 SD) for crises experienced between 5-6 years old. Children under 5 experiencing a currency crisis between their birth and the date of the survey also tend to be shorter, by about - 0.1 SD. Reduced food intake is likely to be the main channel: results are higher in net food importing countries, and children growing up during a currency crisis are less likely to eat any solid food and to have a diversified diet in the days preceding the survey. By contrast, the latter are not less likely to receive vaccines or medication in case of a currency crisis. The effects on height are stronger for poorer households, which is likely to reflect different food and non-food coping strategies compared to richer households. Finally, we show that the effects are smaller when controlling for inflation, suggesting a food affordability channel through higher prices. Additionally we document that our results are unlikely to be influenced by differential selection in parenting across households’ wealth levels. The effects are robust to a large number of alternative specifications and sample restrictions.

Discutants : Noémie Berlin, Moustapha Sarr

Résumé : This study explores how individuals perceive and respond to wealth inequalities based on intergroup comparisons. Specifically, I examine whether individuals tend to minimize the inequalities they experience when they observe more pronounced disparities in another group. To investigate this, a laboratory experiment is conducted where participants are matched into groups of two players. Subjects receive different allocations within their group and different types of information regarding the other group: no information, the wealthiest’s allocation, the poorest’s allocation, the both allocations, and the actions taken to reduce (or not) inequalities within the group. Data shows that the disclosure of both the other group’s members allocations, and hence the level of inequality, negatively impacts the willingness to move towards a more equal situation. Revealing the allocation of the wealthiest, or the other group’s decision not to redistribute, enhances the perceived fairness of the allocation received.

Discutants : Cécile Couharde, Albin Salmon

Résumé : Over the last 3 decades, emerging and developing countries have seen an increase in FDI and, at the same time, rising emigration rates over the same period. This paper therefore re-explores the relationship between diaspora and inward FDI. Differentiating African countries from the rest of the developing world, the results show a positive relationship for these countries, driven by low-skilled migrants, and with an important role of infrastructure. These results suggest public policies to create supportive business environment, and strengthen economic and infrastructural development.

Discutants : Phu Nguyen-Van, Nolwenn Loisel
Résumé : From November 1st 2019 to July 31st 2020, the minimum past employment record worked criterion to benefit from a compensated unemployment spell has been lengthened from 4 months out of 28 months to 6 months out of 24 months. We are studying the impact of this change in eligibility criterion on employment agencies registration behavior, the job finding rate following a job loss, and the quality of the job eventually found. Using payroll taxes information about contracts, historical files from employment agences about registered job-seekers and a difference in differences strategy, we obtain two main results. Firstly, the reform has a negative and significant impact of around 5 points on the probability from registering to employment agencies within two months after the end of one contract. Secondly, the reform has a positive and significant impact of around 3 points on the probability of finding a job within two months following their job loss. Except for younger than 25 years, this effect is driven by a rise in the job finding rate for fixed-term contracts of less than 2 months or temporary ones. There is an heterogeneous employment effect by gender, with women reacting more than men to the reform.

Discutants: Benjamin Monnery et Thomas Jacquet

Résumé: To reach its 2050 objective of carbon neutrality, the European Union (EU) must continue to step up its climate efforts while grappling with the risk of diminished competitiveness in the face of unregulated competition. The EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is at the core of the bloc’s industrial decarbonization efforts. This paper examines how changes in industrial firms’ emission intensity affects their economic and financial performance. We construct a dataset covering around 1,200 industrial firms covered by the EU ETS’ third phase and estimate a novel indicator of volume-based emission intensities for these firms. Applying an IV approach to a within-firm panel model, we find a causal link where changes in firms’ emission intensity inversely affect their corporate performance. This is especially notable for firms that reduced their emission intensity, who saw a resulting small but significant increase in their economic and financial performance.

Discutants: Quentin Hoarau et Pauline Buciarelli

Résumé: Energy transition policies in Europe focus on two main levers: increasing the share of renewables in the electricity mix and electrification, specifically electrification of transportation.Those dynamics will increase the constraints on the electricity system, as the transmission system operator will have to balance an increased electricity consumption with a more intermittent production. On the electricity market, demand response influences the equilibrium price determined by the merit order mechanism: power units are run from the lowest to the highest marginal cost. The priority of renewable energies (wind and solar units) sometimes leads to negative prices. It is cheaper to maintain the production of some conventional units rather than to make them stop and then restart (ramp-up time is an important problem for such unit). Subsequently, load shedding during hours of peak residual load (load minus the wind and solar production) can result in lowering the price, while load shifting to a time when renewables production is at its highest can limit negative pricing. In this context, this article aims at measuring this merit order effect of demand response and renewable supply on electricity market prices. Using an hourly data set over one year in France (2019), we point out the strong difference between peak and off-peak hours through a statistical analysis of the market prices, electricity supply and demand. Then we estimate Markov switching model with two regimes to project the day-ahead hourly price on the French market. This enables us to estimate the average variation in price induced by a variation of the load and a variation of the renewable supply in the electricity mix. A price transformation has been required to consider negative electricity prices with the hyperbolic sine function.

co-auteurs : Vincent D’Herbemont, Dr. Emmanuel Hache, Dr. Louis-Marie Malbec

Discutants: Tanguy Bonnet, Quentin Hoarau

Résumé: This study examines the design of the recently adopted Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) in Europe, and investigates the feasibility of its benchmarks in the case of battery-grade lithium. By integrating the entire lithium value chain into an Integrated Assessment Model, we analyse the interplay between lithium supply, demand, and recycling within decarbonisation scenarios. Our findings suggest significant challenges in meeting the CRMA targets without reducing industrial demand. We show that sufficiency strategies could help achieving these benchmarks while also decreasing reliance on imports. In addition, we argue that the current recycling benchmark should be replaced with an end-of-life recycling rate target to enhance policy relevance.

Discutants: Romain Svartzman et Florian Baudouin

Résumé: La transition énergétique telle qu’elle est pensée aujourd’hui par les Etats-Unis, mais aussi par d’autres économies avancées, représente un nouveau cycle d’accumulation matérielle, avec une explosion des besoins en matières premières minérales. Leurs ressources minérales domestiques étant insuffisantes, les Etats-Unis vont se tourner vers l’international pour s’assurer un approvisionnement. L’idée de ce chapitre de thèse est d’analyser les stratégies d’approvisionnement des Etats-Unis, et les relations politico-économiques avec les pays fournisseurs en minerais et métaux critiques de la transition, en s’inscrivant dans la littérature du World-Ecology System et de l’échange écologique inégal. L’objectif est double, i) contribuer à la théorie existante en l’appliquant et/ou en l’affinant au cas des minerais critiques et ii) évaluer le risque d’échange écologique inégal entre les Etats-Unis et les pays miniers fournisseurs, en le posant comme une limite politique à une transition globalisée et juste.

Discutants: Kim Pham et Valentin Laprie

Discutants: Christophe Blot et Lorenzo Garlanda

Résumé: The Covid-19 crisis precipitated a ”dash for cash” phenomenon, exposing vulnerabilities in short-term debt markets. In response, the Eurosystem undertook its inaugural effective intervention in the corporate commercial paper (CP) market in March 2020, through the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), aiming to bolster monetary policy transmission and address firms’ short-term financing needs. This paper investigates the aggregate and dynamic effects of the PEPP intervention on corporate CP, focusing on i) volumes issued, ii) maturity, and iii) yields at issuance. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology that leverages eligibility criteria at the security and issuer levels, our analysis reveals a discernible shift in the debt composition of eligible firms. Notably, we observe a significant increase in maturity at issuance, averaging 42 days for eligible issuers, which contributes to mitigating rollover risk. Moreover, the PEPP effectively alleviated financing conditions, resulting in a reduction in yields by 8 to 11 basis points for eligible firms. While eligible issuances increased, our findings do not indicate a corresponding rise in issuance at the aggregate level. Furthermore, our analysis underscores the influence of firms’ investor sector, particularly for issuers predominantly held by money market funds prior to the crisis, where the effect on maturity appears more subdued.

Discutants: Thomas Chuffart et Michael Guilloussou

Rapporteurs: Luis Becerra Valbuena et Nabil Daher
Résumé: This study examines how long-term climate changes influence migration patterns within the US Corn Belt through the agricultural sector. We combine two county level datasets - migration data from the Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Income Division and corn yield and irrigation data from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service annual surveys - with ERA5-Land gridded temperature data. We use an instrumental variable approach within a long-difference framework to assess the impact of corn yields trends from 1960 to 2022 on migration rates in Corn Belt counties since 1990. Our findings reveal significant upward trends in extreme degree-days (EDD) above 29◦C across more than half of Corn Belt counties since 1960. We highlight that the varying magnitudes of these trends, alongside differential adoption rates of irrigation between counties, have played a crucial role in explaining the disparities in long-term corn yield trends within the region. Furthermore, we show that the heterogeneous trends in corn yields since 1960 have influenced migration rates among Corn Belt counties in recent decades. Specifically, counties experiencing faster long-term increases in corn yields consistently witness higher levels of population loss due to net migration.

Discutants: Nicolas Yol et Cédric Crofils (Laboratoire d'Économie de Dauphine)

Abstract: This paper investigates the influence of terrain elevation on the impact of climate conditions, particularly rising temperatures, on winter wheat yields across the contiguous United States. Our findings reveal that climate conditions affect winter wheat yields differently depending on terrain elevation, with 500 meters identified as a critical threshold. By analyzing a 40-year period of hourly temperatures, we establish county-specific thresholds for extreme degree days, departing from existing literature. Our estimations indicate that extreme temperatures benefit winter wheat yields during the initial developmental phase but pose risks in later stages, especially for low terrain elevation counties. Consequently, low terrain elevation areas are more vulnerable to yield losses from extreme temperatures overall. Our results suggest therefore a potential shift in wheat production areas due to climate change, potentially leading to movement from low to high terrain elevation areas.

Discutant: Carl Grekou

Discutants: Benjamin Monnery et Daniel Lima Rente

Abstract: Do reminders on mobile phones promote walking? We investigate this question using a large-scale field experiment of 20,187 individuals in France. In collaboration with a step-tracking application, we test how different types of reminders and different extensions of the intervention affect walking habits. We send three types of messages to emphasize three factors that can affect behavior: comparison with own behavior or with peer’s behavior and sunk costs. We vary the duration of the intervention, which lasts 1 or 3 weeks, per each of them. First, we document that the treatment emphasising the comparison with peers is able to attract subject’s attention as it increases the probability of opening the app. However, no type of message was able to affect the number of steps. The average number of steps over the intervention period follows a downward trend, likely determined by a seasonal effect. Gender differences in the use of the app and in the walking behavior are observed.

Discutants: Alessandro Melcarme et Mehdi Ait-Hamlat
Abstract : Cet article propose un état des lieux des polices municipales et de la littérature scientifique qui s’y rapporte, au moment de la création de celle de Paris. Cette police municipale est née dans un contexte parisien de faible sentiment d’insécurité, mais de niveaux élevés de nuisances, justifiant qu’elle se concentre sur les atteintes à la tranquillité publique. Pour ce faire, l’un des enjeux sera de maintenir un partage clair et complémentaire des compétences avec la police nationale, dont les difficultés sont évoquées dans cet article. En effet, selon nos estimations sur données de panel, les effectifs croissants des polices municipales s’accompagnent en moyenne d’une baisse simultanée de la police nationale en France au niveau local, entraînant un effet de substitution. De plus, une série de choix opérationnels – en termes de recrutement, d’équipement ou encore d’allocation des moyens – influenceront l’efficacité de cette nouvelle police municipale en matière de tranquillité publique, laquelle dépend du niveau de confiance et de légitimité reconnu par la population.

Abstract: In this paper we test the relationship between territorial economic performances and related variety in the industrial sector within French employment zones over the period 2016-2021 using a spatial econometrics model. To do so, we mobilize Theil's notion of enterprise as translated by Frenken (2007) in the construction of related and unrelated varieties. we first test the stability over time of this relationship, while controlling for the effect of urbanization externalities, specialization and market concentration. Secondly, we investigate whether there is any non-linearity in this relationship, by grouping employment zones according to their level of relatedness, to test for possible coefficient divergence. This paper highlights France's current industrial production structure and its impact on the economic performance of its employment zones, which is crucial to the implementation of appropriate industrial policies, particularly in the context of the drive to reindustrialize the French territory.

Discutants: Hugo Oriola et Nabil Daher

Abstract: Malgré une intégration progressive des risques financiers d’origine climatique dans les discours des banquiers centraux et superviseurs financiers, les mesures pro-actives de verdissement du système financier restent timides. Parmi les propositions politiques soutenues par ces acteurs, le stress test climatique (STC) est défendu pour sa capacité supposée à atténuer les risques financiers climatiques. Développés en premier lieu dans un cadre européen ou le système financier est développé et complexe mais tendanciellement moins exposé au changement climatique que le reste du monde, cet outil a commencé à être utilisé dans des zones géographiques assez variées, notamment par le biais du NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System). Dès lors, nous étudions dans cet article l’évolution de l’outil lors de son usage en dehors du cœur européen du NGFS. Par une recension des rapports de STC, nous analysons la manière dont ces exercices sont menés dans les banques centrales et superviseurs financiers à travers le monde. Nous observons les déterminants et les caractéristiques de la mise en place de STC. Tout d’abord ce travail fournit un état des lieux inédit des STC menés par des superviseurs ou des banques centrales. De plus, nous discutons de la pertinence de ces exercices pour atténuer les risques financiers d’origine climatique, en particulier dans les pays du sud. Nous concluons sur les difficultés de la mise en place du STC dans les pays du Sud. Les méthodes développées par le NGFS semblent peu adaptées aux enjeux rencontrés dans les pays les plus touchés par les effets du changement climatique.

Discutants: Olivier Renault et Moustapha Sarr

Abstract: Cet article étudie l'impact des sources d'information des risques d'inondation, des zones d'habitation sur les choix d'assurance et de prévention, et les déterminants de la disponibilité maximale à payer (WTP) pour s'assurer contre les inondations. Nous utilisons à cet effet des données d'une enquête de terrain de septembre 2022 auprès de 593 ménages en milieu urbain au Burkina Faso. Les résultats montrent que les sources d'information et la localisation sont des facteurs très importants dans l'explication des choix d'assurance et des choix de prévention. Nous montrons également que le seul fait d'être informé des risques d'inondation ne suffit pas à expliquer la disponibilité maximale à payer. Enfin, nos résultats indiquent que la perception des risques d'inondation, le recours aux réseaux informels et l’aversion au risque réduisent la WTP, alors que l’aversion à l’ambiguïté augmente la WTP.

Discussants: Rémi Generoso (sénior) et Nguyễn Tuấn (junior)

Abstract: Increasing climate variability is impacting the lives of people across the world drastically. The studies have warned that increasing fluctuations in weather will increase migration as households become unable to adapt. Internal migration is the most obvious choice because of its cheaper cost and fewer legal formalities. The risk of the more vulnerable and less able population is huge as negative income shock and wealth reduction will lead them closer to poverty because of the increasing frequency and intensity of climate variability. This study maps the quarterly individual-level Thai Labour Force Survey data from 1985-2000 to ERA5 Reanalysis climate data to analyse the impact of climate variability on internal migration in Thailand. The studies employ the Linear Probability Model to optimise migration decisions based on climate variability. Climate variability is measured by drought and floods dummy constructed using the Standardised Precipitation and Evaporation Index. The results suggest that the additional month of drought exposure increases the probability of migration.

co-écrit avec Paolo Melindi-Ghidi et Jean-Philippe Nicolaï

Discutants: Jean-Marc Zogheib et Florian Morvillier

Discutants: Quentin Hoarau, Marc-Antoine Faure

Abstract : "Latent profile analysis (LPA) is carried out to identify different behaviour of firms in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The goal is to identify profiles based on firms' transaction activity and not considering other characteristics, thus without any a priori bias on the type of behaviour a firm may have. This is especially relevant in the current context of suspicion of speculation in the market. The aim is to contribute to the debate on the potential detrimental role played by certain actors. Firm transaction behaviour is summarised using centrality and popularity indicators stemming from network theory. Estimated indicators include degree, strength, betweenness and eigenvector centralities, harmonic closeness and PageRank. Based on these indexes, LPA is performed to investigate the existence of different firm profiles and identify them. Firm characteristics are then added as covariates to explore the determinants of belonging to a certain group. Visualisation of the transactions network along with the estimation of indicators reveal that the network is highly polarised around a handful of financial firms that play the role of intermediary for compliance firms. The LPA further leads to the identification of three relevant profiles, with notably a "popular" profile characterised by extreme centrality values. Firm regulatory status and sectoral activity seem to be playing a significant role in determining profile assignment."

Pauline Bucciarelli, sous la direction de Emmanuel Hache et Valérie Mignon "Modélisation du recyclage des matériaux des technologiques bas-carbone et impacts sur les prix des métaux "
Souleymane Cisse, sous la direction de Cécile Couharde "Changement climatique et marchés des matières premières agricoles
Basile Clerc, sous la direction de Laurence Scialom et Alexandre Chirat "Economie politique du contrôle des prix "

Co-auteur: Ludovic Julien.
Discutants: Rémi Oddou (sénior) et Ben Vieira Kouassi (junior)

Abstract: In this note, we investigate the effectiveness and the optimality of fiscal policies in the strategic bilateral exchange framework of Gabszewicz and Grazzini (JPET, 1999). We notably propose to test the robustness of the following result: endowment taxation with transfers can implement a first-best allocation in Cobb-Douglas, linear and CES strategic bilateral trade. Through an example in which the preferences of traders are represented by quasi-linear utility functions, we show that endowment taxation with transfers implements a Pareto-optimal allocation, while taxation without transfer does not. Indeed, the optimality of endowment taxation with transfers is robust for a larger class of utility functions, including the quasi-linear utility function, which is often used to represent the preferences of agents in public economics.

Discutants : Harouna Sedgo (junior) & Blaise Gnimassoun (sénior).

Abstract: In this paper, we focus on an overlooked determinant of business cycle synchronization namely the migration. We consider the African countries as sample over the period 1990-2019 subdivided in six periods of each five years. Rely on pooled OLS IV estimates, wefind a positive effect of migration intensity among African and ECOWAS countries on their output co-movement. Second we show that remittances channel usually tested in the literature also enhances synchronization.

Discutants: Christophe Blot et Florian Morvillier
Abstract : This paper contributes to the literature on fiscal policy and inflation. In particular, it estimates the effect of fiscal rules on inflation for a panel of 79 countries over the period from 1985 to 2021. To achieve this end, we use propensity score methods in order to deal with potential endogeneity issues. Our estimates show that the adoption of fiscal rules leads to a decline in inflation in the whole sample. Nevertheless when splitting according to different characteristics, we are unable to conclude for advanced countries and for countries whose central banks are not credible. These results are robust to different specifications.

Discutants : Phu Nguyen-Van (sénior) et Claire Mollier (junior)

Abstract : This paper examines the acceptability of different public policies aimed at limiting negative externalities. The paper explores the impact of experience from a policy trial, cultural worldviews, and the policy acceptability of bans and taxes. The authors conduct a laboratory experiment with participants facing a negative externalities game and introducing public policies in the form of taxation and quantity regulation policies. The participants are asked to vote for or against the implementation of the policy after experiencing a policy trial. The results indicate that acceptability varies across different policy instruments and that experience from a policy trial can influence acceptability. The study also finds that cultural worldviews impact the acceptability of different policies.

Discutants : Olivier Renault (sénior) et Maria Montoya Villalobos (junior)

Abstract:

In this study, we use a lab experiment to investigate individuals' reactions to defeat. In an attempt to understand if men dislike competing with women, this study analyzes men's willingness to compete again, against a high-performing woman. Using a strategic method, our research seeks to elicit men’s and women’s behaviors in a repeated competition context. Meanwhile, we investigate different reactions when giving the participants hypothetical information about the points gap with their opponent. Our results show that men are more reluctant to compete against a man (than a woman) when being defeated by a large point gap. Women, on the other hand, do not base their decision to compete again on the gender of their opponent.

Discutants : Nadine Levratto (sénior) et Simon Lang (junior)

Abstract : Defining a fair and transparent measure of carbon leakage risk is primordial to effectively tackle carbon leakage without undercutting the impact of climate policies. This paper proposes a new approach to measure the risk of carbon leakage, and applies it to the steel and cement industries. The micro-founded hypothetical monopolist test (or SSNIP) is applied at a country-product level to delineate the relevant market for each of these industries. A gravity model is used to estimate technical substitution elasticities at the product level, from which own- and cross-price elasticities are derived and used as inputs in the hypothetical monopolist test. The results from this analysis point to steel markets being delimited at the national level, while the relevant market for cement seems to include several countries, including some outside the EU for clinker.

Discutants: Carl Grekou (sénior) et Emmanuelle Faure (junior)

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the links between strategic metals - which are crucial in the transition to a low-carbon economy - and foreign investment flows. To this end, we consider a panel of 20 strategic metals and 110 countries over the 1997-2020 period. Using a battery of panel data estimations to ensure the robustness of our results, we find that there is no FDI-resource curse for the strategic metals production. Strategic metals have a very strong force of attraction on foreign investments, which has many implications for both the economic development and geopolitical weight of the different producing countries.

Discutants : Chouaib Jouf (senior) et Mathilde Dufouleur (junior)

Abstract: "This paper analyses the impact of the low-interest rate environment on the profitability of 37 life insurance companies operating in France over the 2009-2018 period. Our empirical analysis suggests that Monetary Policy has a significant impact on profitability. This result holds after controlling for macroeconomic and financial conditions and different life insurers-specific characteristics. Accounting for the heterogeneity of life insurers, the paper sheds light on the asymmetrical impact for smaller companies. The article further examines the influence of the solvency position of life insurers on profitability and issues policy recommendations for regulators to mitigate the influence of the low-yield environment, particularly on smaller insurers."

Co-auteur: Laurent Ferrara

Discutants : Thomas Chuffart (sénior) et Stéphane Matton (junior

Abstract: We construct indicators of the attention paid by US monetary policymakers to the international situation. We apply natural language processing techniques to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. We discuss the channels through which foreign economic conditions can impact US monetary policy and their relative importance in Fed discussion. By adding these text-based indicators to a standard forward-looking Taylor rule, we derive a quantitative measure of the external influences on decisions made by the US Federal Reserve. Our results show that when international matters are discussed at greater lengths, the Fed is more accommodating than what would be suggested by the Taylor Rule.

Auteurs : Jean-Charles Bricongne, Mathilde Dufouleur

Discutants: Elena Dumitrescu (sénior) et Pablo Aguilar Perez (junior)

Abstract:

This paper sheds new light on law and finance in the post-crisis period by studying the impact of insolvency regimes on non-performing loans. Using a novel database on European transparency exercise data over 2015-2020, our results, based on fixed effects panel specifications, provide an innovative view of the impact of economic and institutional factors on the quality of banks’ loan portfolios. They confirm and capture more precisely the influence of economic cycle indicators like the GDP growth rate and unemployment and shed new light on the importance of the insolvency framework in discussions about loan quality. Unlike prior studies, the specification used, which varies destination at bank level, makes it possible to disentangle the impact of macro factors, institutional quality and bank characteristics. The impact of insolvency regimes, is found to be favourable for bank non-performing loans and, more broadly, for financial stability.

Discutants : Valérie Mignon et Morel Tien

Abstract :
L’objectif dans ce papier a été de remédier au manque de la littérature en analysant le rôle de la migration bilatérale dans la stabilité du taux de change bilatéral et de dériver du modèle de régression des indices de Zone Monétaire optimale (ZMO) initialement développés par Bayoumi et al, 1997 pour un élargissement de la zone Union Economique Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA). Les résultats mettent clairement en évidence le rôle majeur joué par la migration bilatérale dans la stabilité du taux de change bilatéral et des indices qui diminuent au fil du temps pour les pays membres et non membres de la zone UEMOA. Ce qui traduit des signes de convergence mais tous les pays de la Zone Monétaire d’Afrique de l’Ouest (ZMAO) ne peuvent pas intégrer la zone UEMOA ou du moins participer à la monnaie unique car l’asymétrie est encore élevée pour certains pays.

Discutants: Francisco Serranito (sénior), Djeneba Drame (junior)

Abstract :

This paper revisits the crucial issue of global imbalances and focuses on the determinants of the current account gaps between eurozone Member States. We conduct robust estimations of the current account balances for a panel of ten euro area economies and construct a measure that allows us to diagnose why some countries have started to diverge from the eurozone mean in the last two decades. Our findings show evidence of remaining differences in countries’ economic development, meaning that real macroeconomic convergence has failed in the zone. Price and cost competitiveness, as well as fiscal balances, have also participated in this growing macroeconomic divergence. Overall, while the European authorities cannot influence the part of the gaps due to demographic factors, the role of fiscal redistribution and investment at the euro area level could help achieve macroeconomic convergence..

Discutants : Quentin Hoarau (sénior) et Paul Maillet (junior)

Abstract:

Variable and renewable energy (VRE) sources lie at the core of the European energy decarbonating and independence strategy. A larger share of renewable generation requires flexibility options to cope with intermittency and production uncertainty. Among the flexibility solutions, energy storage has become increasingly interesting because of its versatility and recent high costs reductions. In this paper, we investigate the development potential of energy storage solutions as future dispatchable assets to compete with existing fossil fuel power plants. We propose a novel analysis in the light of the recent energy and geopolitical crisis, which might help the understanding of where Europe stands today in its path towards energy independence. We use a stochastic competitive optimization framework, calibrated on the current Western Europe power system, to derive the market value of new storage technologies and their impact on the price structure. We estimate the long-term equilibrium of flexibility capacities under different renewable horizons, CO2 prices and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) trajectories. We subsequently analyze incremental revenues and costs due to the presence of storage on the wholesale market and their distributions among renewable firms, conventional power plants and electricity consumers. We find evidence that, without additional support policies, the development of stationary storage remains moderate and located in a few countries of interest, mainly because of fierce competition from gas facilities. The contribution of V2G is predominant as it accounts for a large part of the new storage capacity. Finally, we highlight a detrimental effect of new storage on the revenues of fossil fuel power plants and a significant and positive effect on solar and wind revenues, making the case for a smart design of support public policies that integrates the transfers storage operates between market firms.